The Big Sort

I have frequently cited a 2009 book by Bill Bishop, titled “The Big Sort.” Bishop pointed to a then-emerging trend of “voting with one’s feet”–the tendency of many Americans to relocate to places that they find philosophically and politically compatible. The consequences of such sorting can be troubling. What happens when most neighbors agree with your outlook and values, reducing the need to accommodate disagreement or defend your woldview?

I read “The Big Sort” when it first came out, but I still ponder many of the issues it raised. One issue that it didn’t raise, however–at least, I don’t recall Bishop paying attention to it–involved “macro” outcomes: what if the sorting led to very different economic and quality-of-life differences between what we’ve come to identify as “Red” and “Blue” parts of the country?

More than a decade after the book, we are seeing major differences emerge. A recent column by Michael Hicks focused directly on that outcome. As he writes,

Of the 20 richest states today, 19 are solidly Democratic. Of the poorest 20 states, 19 are solidly Republican. The GOP dominates in poor, slowly growing states, while the Democrats dominate politics of prosperous, faster-growing states.

Hicks notes that these differences are largely an outcome of the nationalization of our politics. In former times–in fact, up until the late 1990s– there were conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans. But then, state parties began to align with national politics.

Even races for local municipal government tend to be nationalized. State and local issues are often ignored, or barely discussed in primary or general elections. The homogeneity of national politics will naturally cause parties to represent more similar places.

Hicks then echoes Bishop, finding household sorting by politics. “Though most sorting happens at the sub-state level” (presumably, rural and urban) “the nationalization of politics means that state borders now affect household location choice.” Voters are choosing the political landscapes they prefer.

Hicks notes that when he began researching state and local policy some quarter-century ago, state legislators focused more on local issues; now, many take their “legislative marching orders from national think tanks or national parties. Today, elected leaders from both parties are expected to advance similar legislation, typically written by think tanks, everywhere at once.” (That is certainly the case in Indiana, where our dreadful General Assembly obediently does ALEC’s bidding.)

Education, Hicks tells us, is the most consequential policy difference between thriving Blue states and struggling Red states like Indiana.

The most likely cause of divergence between rich and poor places is the fact that human capital — education, innovation and invention — replaced manufacturing and movement of goods as the primary source of prosperity. In other words, places that grow will collect more human capital. However, the educational policies pursued by both parties are vastly different.

The GOP has largely tried to adopt broad school choice, while cutting funding to both K-12 schools and higher education. The Democrats have largely eschewed school choice, but amply fund both K-12 and higher education. Today, 17 of the 20 states with high educational spending are Democratically controlled and 17 out of the 20 lowest funded states are GOP strongholds.

There’s more to education than spending. Still, higher educational spending, even if it means higher tax rates, is leading to enrollment and population growth. Educational attainment differences alone explain about three quarters of the difference in per capita income between states.

At the same time, school choice effects are smaller than almost anyone hoped or expected. Today, it’s clear that the average student in private school underperforms their public school counterparts (charter schools tend to out-perform both). So, if poor states spend less on education and rely more on school choice, they will become poorer than states spending more on public education.

Economists have been saying this for three decades, with little effect. The prognosis is simply that poor states like Indiana are going to get poorer for decades to come while rich states will grow richer.

Here in Indiana, incoming Governor Braun has made expansion of the state’s voucher program a key priority. He wants to make it “universal,” meaning the eradication of income limits. Indiana’s program is already disproportionately used by upper-middle-class parents; Braun’s proposed giveaway would allow participation by even more privileged families (So much for the pious assurances that vouchers would allow poor children to escape “failing” public schools.)

Vouchers don’t improve educational outcomes, and they drain critical resources from the public schools that continue to serve the overwhelming majority of Indiana children.

If Hicks is reading the data correctly–and I believe he is–states like Indiana will continue to decline, and educated citizens will choose to move elsewhere.

Continuing the “sort.”

19 Comments

  1. I read Michael Hicks’ opinion piece yesterday. It really resonated in its scope and accuracy.

    One symptomatic point I hadn’t previously considered was when he mentioned “nationalization at the local level”.

    I immediately recalled a very recent IndyStar article reporting on local school board races. Two things came to mind:

    1. The effort by local conservatives to force all school board candidates to declare their political party affiliation.

    2. A local (Carmel?) school board candidate attacking their opponent in MAGA-type terms.

  2. Republicans have ALWAYS hated publicly-funded education. Why? Because it isn’t indoctrinating enough to ensure Republican voters in the future. Demographic studies, like those mentioned above, show that educated people – even at the K-12 level – tend to vote for Democrats.

    The scorched earth Republican agenda installed by the terrible hirings by George H.W. Bush of Lee Atwater, Karl Rove, et. al., is what destroys the idealism that our founders had in mind. They care only about winning power and thus gaining wealth.

    Democrats tend to cling to the notion that all boats must rise with the tides of progress. Republicans see that as heresy. THERE is the reason we have red and blue. It will remain red v. blue because people are very resistant to admitting their mistakes even if it means voting for people who work against their own best interests – including those of their children.

  3. When profit is the goal of public services the result is clearly not in the interests of the people. there are some services that should not be profit-centered. Education, health care, prisons come to mind.
    There are three poisons; greed, anger, ignorance. We are about to learn what it is like to live in a society that is run by all three.

  4. Poverty is self-replicating. Ignorance is, too. Maga is another thing that builds on itself. States’ rights, though, make our stacked governance less DC-centric.

    These trends lead to the common denominator of red states becoming more so, the same with blue states and an even higher-contrast country.

    That trend leads to…………?

  5. As far as people consciously sorting based on politics, I suspect very little of that happens. More likely ambitious (and financially able) people are following economic opportunities. In states like Indiana we have a name for that. It’s called brain drain. I suspect this leaves enough people behind that we now see the economic effects Hicks mention.

  6. Dare anyone to consider that the “sorting” is an underlying rumble threatening the full chasm to the RSA/BSA country? For a cynic, that might be more peaceful than a a Civil War….

  7. So in the rural areas where do voucher-holders go? It boggles my mind to see anyone in rural communities supporting vouchers. Braun doesn’t have a creative bone in his body to solve Indiana’s issues – he is relying on the 2025 approach and trying to turn Indiana into Texas with the help of the AG and a Christian Nationalist. Nothing will stop him because he has the imprimatur of the legislature, dominated by Republicans who have no interest in bipartisan discussion. I have attended hearings about vouchers and found the disinterest on the faces of legislators whenever an opposition speaker addressed the Ed Committee. Look at the chair of the Ed Committee who has no background in education – Bob Behning. Look at the “advisors” to Braun. Recall the slap in the face to Jennifer McCormick and the disrespect toward duly elected Glenda Ritz. It will take opposition to charter schools invading school districts to stand up to the Braun agenda in some way. Kudos to Pike Township schools and residents who said “NO” to a very questionable charter school. This is the way to show resistance.

  8. Great post and excellent comments this morning!

    I’m pretty sure Pete and Lester know what sorting leads to, especially when fascist authoritarianists occupy the White House and will be oppressing red and blue states alike. As was mentioned recently, the blue state governors are already preparing for lawsuits. Red state politicians will play along despite their people getting hosed. What happens when federal government-dependent red states find federal funding slashed?

    As for schools, the right-wing media has controlled the conversation by laying the problem at the feet of teachers for “indoctrinating students with woke ideology.” Why do you think religious schools have wait lists? Why do you think all the right-wingers spent a fortune campaigning for school board seats? Even Koch spent a lot of money assisting local school board campaigns. What are they up to? 😉

    The Christian right is eating all this up because their media and pastors have made it all about “VALUES.” Look at the POTUS-elect and his administration, and tell me who is value-oriented. LOL

    Once the sorting cools down, all the oppression from the oligarchy will push at the working class, regardless of red or blue state occupancy. The central question is, “What will the working class do about it?”

  9. I read the Hicks article about 3 or 4 days ago and thought it was spot on.

    Ignorant leaders taking the state to deeper depths of poverty.

  10. The cabinet that the Orange Jesus (OJ) has assembled seems acceptable to the MAGATS, primarily because they look to be successful and they all seem to believe that success in one field is a guarantee of success in something as “simple” as governing.

  11. I feel that one big factor contributing to this is loss of substantive local media outlets. Media companies have cut local newsroom budgets to the bone, leaving no one to cover local political issues. That makes it hard for local citizens to know what is going on and to participate in local government. The two biggest contributors to political polarization is the fragmentation of media and loss of common, public schools.

  12. One outcome is that property values and cost of living in red states will be lower. The lower income folks living in red states will not be able to afford to move to blue states even if they share the blue state values. This is already happening. So when the prosperous blue staters start buying up red state property, will they bring their values with them or see the red staters as nothing more than cheap labor? Probably some of both.
    Retirees often move to places where cost of living is lower so that their fixed incomes go farther. Retirees tend to be more conservative, but will retirees who have lived and worked in the diversity rich environments of blue states turn into bigots if they move to a homogeneous community or rural part of a red state?
    Too many variables to make reliable predictions, but by anticipating possible outcomes we can think about what can be done to push those outcomes in the directions we prefer.

  13. dumbing down of the small buisness owner is also a fact. the magas tell of how small buisness people are voting the maga theory of tax cuts etc will make your buisness less dependant on goverment, and prospher. we have the local economy being drafted by maga to become non existant. if the local taxes cant pay for education,sucking more from the locals pockets who probably cant pay for rent/buy-a-school will depend again on your tax dollars to support it. even charter schools have costs to the home.(uniforms anyone) more or less, the education will be an indoctrination to have the student believe this is good for them. in bizmarck theres a state sales tax, county tax,city tax all on the bottom line of your reciept,and others are now following the course.we have billions in a multible trusts here in NoDak and the education system is still solid, and supported by government. it has a high state of people leaving to higher ed,elsewhere. the local NDSUs etc,is about a conservitive products and keep your ass grounded, shut up and listen,if you want to succeed here in NoDak. but one issue that isnt in the fold..
    how much money does your state presently hold in investments in wall streets greed? ya might wannna see where your money is going to implode.were due for another bubble to bust if trumps buddies fail. but we know where the lost money goes,right?

  14. bumper sticker:
    the billionaires and millionaires must love poor people.
    they created more of them and told the poor thats good.

  15. Coming from a very blue & rich state.
    And moving to a more educated red state ((not counting its more rural areas)
    due to the cost of housing rising faster than you could put together a down payment. and being one of those whose main priority was home ownership.
    the move was an easy choice. And yes, brought my liberal values with me.

  16. Caren,

    Too bad those values will be “swamped”…hope you can find some community. Look at TX and FL for models…

  17. It puzzles me when I hear about how the ignorant and uneducated are MAGAs. As far as I can tell many of the people getting nominated for positions in the next administration have post secondary degrees, many from very prestigious public schools. Are they all sociopaths?
    IMO, bottom line for MAGAs, no matter their complaints about the economy, taxes and burdensome regulation, is racism and misogyny. Just take a look at the likely committee chairs in the GOP House. Not a woman or person of color in the lot.
    As far as rural counties are concerned, private schools will be few and far between, with most of the few available being religious.
    As stated before, public school corporations are often the largest employer in rural counties. Siphoning off funds and jobs when schools are forced to consolidate (again) or close will mean declining incomes and population. Rural counties are expected to continue to lose residents while urban/suburban counties grow over the next decades. What will that mean to the voters? Only time and economics will tell.

  18. Sharon Miller, I almost mentioned the advantages of being well educated and well off and living in a red state. It makes it pretty attractive to live in where it is mostly unaffordable to most of the population. I live in the 2nd most densely populated census tract in the state, with 40+ restaurants within walking distance of me. In a blue state/city like Illinois/Chicago, that would be unaffordable for me.

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