I am not an economist, nor do I play one on this blog. But let’s talk about economics and Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
As Heather Cox Richardson recently reported, despite the GOP’s pious (and entirely bogus) expressed concerns about the deficit, the speed with which Congressional Republicans are trying to pass this monstrosity is rooted in their effort to avoid widespread recognition of what it actually does. The bill blows the budget deficit wide open by extending the 2017 tax cuts for the wealthy and connected, and it does so by sticking it to the needy, via draconian cuts to Medicaid.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that extending the tax cuts for the already-rich will cost at least $4.6 trillion over the next ten years. (And in an especially despicable twist, the tax cuts would go into effect immediately but the cuts to Medicaid wouldn’t hit until 2029, after both the midterms and the 2028 election.)
The prospect of that debt explosion led Moody’s on Friday to downgrade U.S. credit for the first time since 1917, following Fitch, which downgraded the U.S. rating in 2023, and Standard & Poor’s, which did so back in 2011. “If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, which is our base case,” Moody’s explained, “it will add around $4 trillion to the federal fiscal primary (excluding interest payments) deficit over the next decade. As a result, we expect federal deficits to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending and relatively low revenue generation.”
The difficulty in passing this monstrosity has been the insistence of hardline Republicans that the cuts to Medicaid and SNAP weren’t draconian enough.
It’s a standard Republican accusation that federal spending is out of control, but as Richardson notes, discretionary spending has actually fallen more than 40% in the past 50 years as a percentage of gross domestic product, from 11% to 6.3%. What has really caused rising deficits were the Bush and Trump tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
But rather than permit those tax cuts to expire— or even to roll them back— the Republicans continue to insist Americans are overtaxed. In fact, the U.S. is far below the average of the 37 other nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an intergovernmental forum of democracies with market economies, in its tax levies. According to a report by the Center for American Progress in 2023, if the U.S. taxed at the average OECD level, over ten years it would have an additional $26 trillion in revenue. If the U.S. taxed at the average of European Union nations, it would have an additional $36 trillion.
In a recent Substack, Paul Krugman described the Big Beautiful Bill as a “big tax giveaway to the wealthy combined with cruel cuts in programs that serve lower-income Americans,” writing that the measure’s cruelty is exceptional even by recent right-wing standards, and noting that it relies on
claims we know aren’t true and policies we know won’t work — what some of us call zombie ideas. And it’s hard to avoid the sense that the counterproductive viciousness is actually the point. Think of what we’re seeing as the attack of the sadistic zombies.
Krugman writes that this slashing of Medicaid will cause almost inconceivable hardship to the bottom 40 percent of Americans, especially to the poorest fifth. (Medicaid actually covers far more Americans than Medicare, including 39 percent of the nation’s children.)
Among the ways Republicans will slash Medicaid is by requiring that adult Medicaid recipients be gainfully employed — or, as Krugman points out, “more accurately, that they demonstrate to the satisfaction of government bureaucrats that they are gainfully employed, which is not at all the same thing.”
The belief that many Americans receiving government support are malingering, that they could and should be working but are choosing to be lazy, is a classic zombie idea. That is, like the claim that cutting taxes on the rich will unleash an economic miracle, it’s a doctrine that should be long dead. It has, after all, been proved wrong by experience again and again.
But right-wingers simply refuse to accept the reality that almost everyone on Medicaid is either a child, a senior, disabled or between jobs.
The evidence from state efforts to impose work requirements shows that–while such rules don’t get presumably “lazy” people to work–they do take benefits away from people who are legally entitled to them through onerous paperwork and administrative barriers.
If Republicans really cared about deficits, they’d tax the rich, not screw over the poor. They could begin by simply enforcing current tax rates, which our plutocrats evade to the tune of 150 billion dollars a year.
Your GOP at work…..
While the “bbb” does stick it to the needy, let’s call it what it is: THEFT.
They increased the defense budget, which is already bloated beyond measure and casts shade over all other sovereign nations combined. We haven’t won a battle since WW2. Sorry, I got off track.
While they increase money for defense, they cannot cut enough of the other programs to offset the money going toward the wealthiest 0.01%, so they will have to borrow and print the money. In reality, they are stealing $4 trillion from our Treasury and sending Americans the bill via even higher interest payments. This is why Moody’s is downgrading our rating, which will cost us even more due to higher interest rates.
Complicating the above picture is that due to Trump’s tariff wars against China and Japan, the two largest debt holders, both countries are liquidating their bond holdings, dumping their dollars in reserve, and buying gold. Who’s going to buy our debt since we also pissed off Europe?
All of this while the MAGATs cheer, “We’re owning the libs!”
Is theft from the ignorant against the law or just part of the lovely attributes of capitalism?
This sentence from todays post sums up the R’s
“big tax giveaway to the wealthy combined with cruel cuts in programs that serve lower-income Americans,”
And they keep winning elections. I do not get it.
Patmcc, I totally agree with you about not getting it, but that’s the mindset of the MAGA cult and its close adherents. But what is most intriguing is that most of these knuckleheads claim to be “good” Christians. I guess some Oklahoma preacher has eliminated the book of Matthew from Bible study classes. Otherwise, why would good Christians go against the tenets of their “Lord and Savior” who openly said, “Feed the poor, clothe the naked, house the indigent and welcome the foreigner” … or words to that affect depending on who did the last edit?
So, it seems, Republicans = Hypocrites in the most shameful ways possible. I keep hearing how frightened these damned fools are of the orange hairball and the RNC primary machinery. Even slugs with no spine fight to live. Is this living for these guys/girls? They compromise their religious devoutness to shore up their job security?
I don’t think Jesus lusted for power the way these pathetic creatures lust for it … at the expense of the least among us, the poorest among us and the most un-privileged among us. Well done, voters. You really know how to shame yourselves.
I’m glad I’m old.
CNBC reporter Jeff Cox published 5/12/25 that, “Tariff receipts topped $16 billion in April, a record that help cut the budget deficit.” He added that this compared with $8.75 billion collected in March, and more than double the $7.1 billion a year ago.
Democrats in Congress are the only obstacle standing now with some ability to rein in Dictatorial Donny and his cabinet of volunteer victims. The rest are afraid to.
Our demonstrated anger fuels Democrats in Congress, so we must go public with it.
We must lead, follow, or get out of the way to do that. Choose to stand in the way of Republicans in Congress by publicly supporting Democrats in Congress.
Let others see our anger at Republicans’ continued efforts to siphon wealth from those who still create wealth by consuming and producing in proportion. Reject all the whining that we are not perfect because nobody is. Reject the BS that what creates wealth is having wealth. We are drowning in their BS, so don’t stand for it.
How many MILLIONS of our tax dollars has been spent in only the first FOUR MONTHS on Trump’s Term Two personal pleasures, some disguised as government business trips such as his recent trip to Saudi Arabia? How many MILLIONS of Trump’s personal wealth has increased due to this extended and expansive trip related to a “gift” which will cost MILLIONS to attempt to declare it secure from imbedded spy equipment built into the Flying Palace as he made personal wealth increasing deals on other stops while he happened to be in the neighborhood? How many more MILLIONS will it take to restructure the Flying Palace to suit Trump’s personal needs to run the government such as gold toilets?
It did not take Trump 2 HOURS to discover and decide Putin does NOT want Peace, does NOT want to end his war on Ukraine and refuses to speak directly to the President of Ukraine or any other peace and democracy seeking world leader in Europe. How much time was spent on Putin’s and Trump’s 2 hours was spent on personal financial dealings to benefit both of them?
Can…WILL…we survive the next 3 years and 8 months till there is merely a possibility we can oust him from the White House, leaving behind his requirement for a Ballroom?
For several decades millions of voters in red states like Indiana have voted against their own interests because they choose to believe the Republican party’s propaganda and lies. Some are angry that their wages have not kept up with inflation and others are angry because they’ve lost union jobs with great pay and benefits. Those voters seem to be completely incapable of realizing that their lives have been negatively impacted by the Republican politicians they voted into office as the amazingly successful Republican propaganda machine keeps churning out new lies to keep those voters angry at the ‘others’.
Though we focus on the current administration, and current expenditures, it was the “uni-party” over many years that gave us this level of national debt. Our Congress is simply unable to stop spending. Our major cost is paying interest on that national debt.
Per Martin Armstrong, “The US has already paid out $579 billion in the first seven months of FY 2025 simply for the burden of holding such an asinine amount of debt.”
It’s simple: I want my tax dollars to support services for We the People. Period.
With all they’ve cut – all without reason, analysis or care – it’s clear WE won’t get anything from this hacksaw elimination of so-called ‘waste, fraud and abuse.’ They are the waste, fraud and abuse experts. They are taking it all and still giving themselves even more tax breaks – like they pay anywhere near the % on their outrageous fortunes as I do on SS and meager part-time earnings. As for denying healthcare, medicaid, etc., it’s clear they just want us all to die. Their lives would be SO much easier without the poor, ill, and seniors. Ugh. Hate ’em all.
The only time the GOP cares about the deficit is when the Democrats are in charge. Their specialty is fear. It’s a great motivator. Right now we are all supposed to fear trans children, especially those who play girl’s sports. When this is over,they’ll find someone else to hate and they’ll keep winning.
they want us to have babies,they want us to be more self reliant,they want us to buy buy buy,they want us to act as if were totally able to have a life style that ignores thier legislative/billionaires gun pointed at our heads to live in America. maybe if we had a living wage and the rich are actully taxed on their worth. what they took from us in price gouging and blaintant greed,and wall streets manipulations to control every dime we have left is how this game has taken us from the majority rule to a puddle of mush.new game we will buy insurance for profit because FEMA wont exist to help, ag dept will sell you insurance against loss. your national parks (real estate)will be for sale to apease the rich for more locked away privacy.and any gov handout will be for profit. anyone writing about this new deal? the billionaires are elected,er, bought and paid for the party that once claimed being clean and straight is the best bet.(they will have all clean water to bathe in.)… i work in trucking,(47 years) for 4 decades we are dead in the water as far as wages/rates go. every trucking enity is controled by the big investor owned trucking corps,who have cut throated the small buisness end til we cease to exist for any profit,and its by design. . we as hired drivers still work on a 1933 labor scam that refuses to give us any pay for being on the road when we are parked,securing that loaded truck and equipment away from home. no per diem, no hourly pay or over time doesnt exist except in union jobs,that do not have the specialized needs for over the road work and machinery like goods. . even if manf comes back some decades away, the wages will never come back to make a living wage possible. it is why we have billionaires making sure we never see anything but debt,for profit. we dont need billionaires. we need a discussion what propaganda is,and whos paying to con the rest of Americans who dont want to listen to fact. bigotry and decisiveness has become the weapon. look at any attempt by demo law makers to view ICE and comment on its gestapo like tactics..and its allowed by congresses majority. its all a precursor to the intimidation to come. it is already in the back of everyones mind. and thats what we are seeing in any media. its written in every history book that hasnt been burned yet.
JoAnn,
you mean billiion$ spent on trumps disguised trips..
someone say,, trumps crime family..
no jobs here for a resort for,the rich and famous..just kissing saudi butts for
profit..
My late Lady liked to say that “it doesn’t make much sense to kill the customers that keep businesses in business.” But that is what the R’s seem to be attempting!
jack smith @ 9:41; I’m sure you are more correct on that amount. Millions no longer raises eyebrows in government today; the billionaires must be seeking that T level for Trillions. I just want my Social Security check amount monthly and my retirement after working for Republican City Government for 20 years and full time work in my teens. PERF retirement, which in the Indiana Legislature is still being played with for Public Employee Retirement Fund recipients (PERF) who are comprised of in this red state of old and disabled Republicans losing out to the Republicans they elected to their offices. I worked for them as an Independent voter from 1972 – 1994.
“But right-wingers simply refuse to accept the reality that almost everyone on Medicaid is either a child, a senior, disabled or between jobs.” No, they know the reality, they just do not give a rotten rat’s ass about it! They simply want MORE!
The reason the Republicans (especially those in Congress) don’t give a damn about the children, seniors, the disabled or those between jobs is that most or all of them have never had to work (and I mean really work, like get their hands dirty work) for anything in their lives. They have always had things given to them and they don’t know what the rest of us have gone through to get where we are or were. As in the words of Dear Leader said about the late, great Marie Antionette where she said “Let them eat cake”, take away their riches and let them learn what the meaning of poor really means.
At least Marie Antoinette (who did’t say let them eat brioche, not cake) actually set up homes for unwed mothers, the blind, and the aged. She also brought food to the poor (all while living an extravagant lifestyle).
She would have been criticized for her charity by the MAGA crew.
Remember, nothing makes a rich MAGA person happier than having someone grovel — so they can kick them in the teeth (sorry, sometimes anger wins)