Yesterday, I wrote about my swings between optimism and pessimism as we approach November. I’ve now read a depressing article suggesting that even a “best-case” election result will not erase America’s Trumpist plague.
An article from The Bulwark began with the following quote from Philip Bump:
The Trump era is about Trump in the way that the War of 1812 was about 1812: a critically important component and a useful touchstone but not all-encompassing. Turning the page on the era requires more than Trump failing to get an electoral vote majority.
Perhaps a more accurate time span to consider is something like 15 years. The election of Barack Obama as president in 2008 was hailed as a signal moment in the evolution of American politics and demography, but it also triggered a remarkable backlash. Ostensibly rooted in concerns about government spending, it was largely centered on the disruption of the economic crisis (which triggered an increase in spending) and that overlapping awareness of how America was changing.
The author went on to agree. As he recounted, he’d originally viewed Trump as an aberration–after all, he’d gotten through the Republican primaries with pluralities, not majorities, of Republican votes, and he’d underperformed his poll numbers in virtually every primary. Large numbers of Republican voters hated him. He trailed Hillary Clinton in all of the polling. All of these data points led him to conclude that Trump would lose the 2016 general election, that in the wake of that loss the GOP establishment would take measures against those who’d supported him, and the Party would go back to being the Party of Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, and Marco Rubio.
As the author candidly admits, he was wrong on all counts.
My first mistake was not understanding that Trump had turned the mild tilt of the Electoral College into an enduring 3-point advantage.
By trading suburban, college-educated voters for rural, high-school educated voters, Trump maximized the GOP’s Electoral College efficiency. This trade turned the GOP into a permanent minority party, making it extraordinarily difficult for it to win a national popular majority. But it tilted the Electoral College system to Republicans by a minimum of 3 points in every election.
This was a true innovation. Prior to Trump, no one had viewed minority rule as a viable electoral strategy.
His second mistake was his belief that party elders would expel or neuter those who had supported Trump. As he now recognizes, that mistake wasn’t simply because Trump won. “It was wrong because the real war was not the general election, but a Republican civil war between traditional Republicans and those who wanted “grievance-based political violence.”
The grievance aspect was important because it meant that Trump could deliver to his voters even if he lost. Trump understood that Republican voters now existed in a post-policy space in which they viewed politics as a lifestyle brand. And this lifestyle brand did not require holding electoral office…
So no, there were never going to be recriminations against conservatives and Republicans who had collaborated with Trump. The recriminations would run in the opposite direction: The forces of Trumpism would continue to own the Republican party and anti-Trumpers would continue to be driven out. (Unless they chose to convert.)
That led to a third mistake: believing that the Republican Party would revert to its previous identity as a normal, center-Right political party. He now believes there is no going back.
If anything, the dynamics inside the party—the self-selection making the party whiter, more rural, and less-educated; the desire for minority rule; the eagerness for political violence; the disinterest in governing—seem likely to push the party further away from what it was.
We can’t control the future. And we can’t control the Republican party. All we can control is ourselves.
Which starts with being clear-eyed about reality and the work ahead.
The essay confirmed my reluctant realization that far more of the American electorate falls into that “grievance-based” category than I want to believe. Americans aren’t simply engaged in a Presidential campaign, but a much longer, more protracted struggle for the soul of the nation.
Even if Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win in November, those of us who define patriotism as allegiance to the philosophy of our founding principles will have to contend with the White “Christian” Nationalists who want to abandon those principles in favor of an autocratic, theocratic vision that accords them social and cultural dominance. (If you don’t believe me about that “vision,” take a look at Project 2025. Or–if you live in Indiana– read statements from Micah Beckwith or Jim Banks.)
November is just Round One. That said, winning it decisively is an absolutely essential first step.
Professor-well said. However, we must take every step with thoughtfulness and dignity. Our success to reconnect our country will take time, however, the leader we have in place today, has the intelligence and courage to bring us home.
“By trading suburban, college-educated voters for rural, high-school educated voters, Trump maximized the GOP’s Electoral College efficiency.”
I argue against the statement that “…Trump maximized the GOP’s Electoral College Efficiency.” He approved the release of their long simmering racism, bigotry, hatred and allowed physical violence as the solution to their illusion of losing their white privilege as their God given right to rule. Which turned the Electoral College advantage as their weapon to protect White Nationalism.
“November is just Round One. That said, winning it decisively is an absolutely essential first step.”
Agreed. It would be a mistake to think that a Democrat victory in November is the end goal. It is only a start. The political enthusiasm needs to turn into a determined effort to turn the ship of state around. It will take time, as Dennis Southerland says above, and it will take work. But the gift that t*ump/MAGA has given us is the wake up call to shake off our complacency (I am speaking to myself here) and pay attention to each other and to our elected officials, and speak up, and vote.
First things first though; the first step is to eliminate the immediate threat, then deal with the others one at a time.
I cant believe that trump undestands anything but his ego and self intrests. but i can agree that the meeting of two diffrent slants(trump and republican party to magas) making a square. the republican party has always as far as my 69 years go, been trying to undermine and under mind the working class that understands the so called conservitives are no more than people who demand we give more and take home less. its obvious they support big buisness and their own self intrests/determination. whereas, unions and people who basically just want a fair shake, from capitalism and knowing we do most of the work that keeps the gears turning. trump was a known idiot who blabbed his way to a showman like carney barker. the republicans were looking for flack,again to install its agenda without being seen as such. trump obsession is with himself, hense,in a world of free ink and entertainment value that ranks somewhere under a wet rock, one is using the other like cheap whores. the fact is,his
following is being used as such.their religion now grants some sort of reprieve for his sins while kissing his ass for the tax incentives and the condemnation of the liberals who stand against church and state. fake religion,fake words,fake tears,they are the fakes. if you belong to some sect of sharia like laws, then the fact remains, you govern over people by fear.that is how governments rule since time began,and the con job of such.
christian nationalism, might as well be democracys cannibolism. ive run across plenty of so called christain nationalists. no matter how you talk with them, their right,your wrong kiss my ass. NoDak is full of these people. generations of strong beliefs that have morphed into a movement pushed by its church pox news and a carney barker/used car sales something.. why should we give tax breaks for hate. in such conversations with such people, man or woman, i am a non believer, well lets just say, thats when they get literally enraged I dare to say that ,im talking about red faced pissed.. and the conversation goes off the rails. like i said, they are right, im wrong, fuckin liberal.
Ill finish, with my bumper sticker:
round 3
trump/putin
project 2025.
it doesnt get much attention. but im finding a perfect place to put them.
in the urnals in out houses at const sites i work with and mens rooms.
i printed 200 of them, along with a box of nitrel gloves.worth every dime..
It became apparent last night that the old guy has aged out because his offense has only a single play: blame everyone else. That act has become boring to most.
The polling showed afterward that 1/3 of us still thought he had won.
I have been trying to ascertain who those people are for a couple of decades and why they are so desperately unhappy, and I still cannot pin it down. They represent a subculture within our national culture that is solid in the old Confederate states but marginal in some northern states.
One significant observation is that their numbers have grown with the growth of anger/blame entertainment on broadcast and social media. It is such a lucrative business.
I think that you are omitting a number of things in what is otherwise excellent. A lot of people have legitimate grievances. Real wages have dropped in recent decades. Rural/small town America – is losing a lot. Liberals, radicals, and “Democrats” have not spoken to and listened to “the others” – who are primarily white, not union members, and are losing or have lost a way of life that they value very much. Republicans – speak to their worries, their fears, and also their hatreds. Democrats – ignore them often. When not ignored, Democrats – tell them distortions of the realities of their lives or – (rightfully often) blame – the wealthy, the greedy, the powerful interests. Labels like “socialism” and “radical leftists” – as well as blaming – immigrants, gays/lesbians/trans people and similar often work, because most of these people don’t know- others – who they only see as taking “their jobs”, and similar. Deindustrialization, increased concentration of wealth, and “politics” – as “the force” to deal with them – both gives Dems opportunities – and points out their HUGE failures! Don’t presume that – Christian Hegemony’s leaders and Wealthy Voices of the Right are – “wrong”. Look at how their – words of hatred and exclusion – play into both the realities and fears of many people. The obvious facts – that Black and Native and some Latina/Latino People – have it Worse – is immaterial – to them – with their world view. I’m simply Not better – than most everyone – else – period! I was lucky – to have a father who was a professor, to go to West Lafayette High School – where “success” was the expectation. Elitism – and even “inclusive” perspectives – don’t reach many people – that is OUR failure – we are up against crafty, manipulative people – and we don’t even offer Love – often to those who vote against us. Love – isn’t “Christianity”. Love is Caring – for ourselves and Others – whether from an ethical, religious – or just practical base.
Pete, you need to watch the Bad Faith documentary if you want to know who the 30% of Americans who are solid MAGATs. Don’t forget, before the MAGATs controlled the GOP, the organization was bought by the Koch brothers for their Taxed Enough Already (TEA) Partiers.
While others may disagree with me, Barack Obama’s failure to reign in Wall Street and the Big Banks launched Trump and the Tea Party into action. Trump used the MAGAs, and the MAGAs used Trump to destroy the Deep State – defined as the government bureaucracy in Washington (the Swamp) that runs everything behind the scenes. Jeesh, why would MAGAs think the REGULATORS were the problem?
It’s because the Koch brothers (polluters) hated regulators as so-called Libertarians.
Over at X, Elon Musk hates regulators, too, and has invested in Trump’s campaign. Supposedly, Elon gets a job on Trump’s team to review departments to see how efficiently they are run. Musk is now an anti-Democratic Party fool. His posts are ridiculous, but he has a major following with the other tech billionaires and a big chunk of X. He’s just another propagandist, but he also has major contracts with the federal government. Several of them, but he claims to be an “outsider.” The same goes for those other technocrats from Silicon Valley. Many of them got their start from the CIA’s joint venture fund. How could they be anti-government?
At the end of the day, this is all about “good” and “evil.” The intellectuals are overthinking this. All the propaganda is to make Democrats evil. All the conspiracy theories point to the evil Democrats and those that support them. The MAGATs are the good people, and their job is to do battle with the evil-doers. Remember the Bush/Cheney propaganda about “evil-doers” who drug the US into a war under false pretenses? #WMDs
If you listen to these people closely, they are the righteous chosen by God to take on the Devil. The government tried to kill Trump because he was the chosen one. He plays the role of a martyr. “He’s doing this for the righteous ones.” Can you imagine that Trump is self-sacrificing? LOL
God’s chosen ones versus the Godless. It sounds a lot like Zionism, doesn’t it? 😉
Just wait, You ain’t seen nothing yet. I don’t know how it will all play out in the end, what roads will be taken, but to be sure, it’s going to cause a lot of grief. After looking at the debate, it left me befuddled. There were no epiphanies by either candidate. As CCR said, I see a red moon ris’in, I see trouble on the way.
Does anyone really believe that the MAGATs will just quietly pack up and go away? The same people who waited for 30 years for their plans to take over SCOTUS aren’t going away anytime soon. They’ll just go underground and continue their work to implement Project 2025. They might have to wait and change the name, but they are nothing if not patient.
IMO, it is difficult to reach the struggling used to be’s. Their problems are the root cause of their failure to adapt to ever-changing reality.
Evolution is the best teacher of that. It’s a story about what happens within species when the environment changes. What used to be successful no longer is.
In sustainable species, a different mutation is suited for the new environment, and over time, the previous mutation dies out over generations while the better-adapted flourishes.
That’s cruel, but the process sustains the species.
Todd, I agree that Obama should have done more to reign in the banking sector, but that’s not what launched Trump. Trumpism began back in Reagan’s day, but it was a slow burn. The curve became exponential when Obama was elected because … racism. It’s also true that Trump took advantage of the situation but only by accident. His natural (obscene) tendencies meshed with the resentments and bigotries that existed perfectly and absolutely captured the MAGA gang.
As I’ve said many times before, I also agree that the GOP is not going back, and that the MAGA crowd is going to remain in control for years if not decades. Still, there is one very real advantage to not having Trump at the forefront (and hopefully that point starts in a few months, not 4+ years). He is a cult leader more than a politician, so losing him will be a big blow to the MAGA crowd. Again, he has this position by luck, by stepping into the spotlight just at a time when they were ready for a “dear leader”. They are committed to him in a way they could almost never be to anyone else. They _would_ drink the kool-aid. So, in my opinion, they are extremely unlikely to gravitate as strongly to any single person post-Trump. I expect this to suppress the MAGA vote a little, and a tiny percentage may split off to become independents. Basically, I think this is a group that can shrink back towards its 30% range post-Trump, which I get from the low-point of Trump’s approval rating while in office. All that’s needed is a loss of 2-3 points, and MAGA will have real trouble winning anything. It gives me some hope.
All that said, it’s still critically important that Trump lose this election. The scary possibility is that he and his project-2025 crowd could do fundamental harm to the USA that could take decades to unravel. They could do enough harm that even the inevitable shrinking of the MAGA crowd may not be enough to definitively stop them.
Last night’s debate (if you can call it that) between a clown and an empty suit was emblematic of an empire in decline.
As Pete previously stated, the US is an outdated hegemon that is desperately clinging to its past and failing miserably. America”s better days are not in the future,but in the rear view mirror.
Outside of endless war, America has failed to adapt to the new multipolar world.
As Pete has so eloquently stated above, many amongst the American voting bloc are very aware of the sentiments expressed in his post;
Those outside of the DNC base ( the PMC ) should go die. Also,TINA. We are at a point where the Democratic Party is no longer the party with a big tent. The proverbial and obligatory vote every four years and the subsequent “now go shut up”, has run its course for many.
Just sayin’..
Grievance based Magas without the power of Potus and hopefully Congress will have to find their way in the framework of US democracy. If their candidate wins, we won’t have that framework, and the rule of law for those in power is out the window. That’s a huge difference and I wished Magas would realize they are not appreciating the fullness of our rights in this country. The political tides could turn, and the winds could shift and without the safeguards of the Bill of Rights any American’s standing including theirs, could come under fire. We can’t let a minority of Americans that don’t value themselves enough to guard against lies and corruption in Politics and the marketplace to have elevated power.
Kamala Harris commanded the debate last night by stating her policies to help bring up the middle-class, while calling out the failures and crimes of trump. She voiced her concern that the Maga candidate was unable to grasp and understand the facts (that he lost in 2020) and that his rambling speech and ideas are symptomatic of mental incompetency and unfitness for office.
Trump bragged about being a strong, feared and respected leader around the world. Kamala reported that in her travels as vice president to foreign countries that leaders are saying the opposite of trump and have concerns about his competence and loyalties. Kamala summed it up when she said, “Putin’s not your friend, he would eat you for lunch”!
Trump is the Useful Idiot for the Mega Rich betting their futures on becoming the oligarchy’s to expand their control over our nations wealth and resources and regulate all others to a peasant class with them at the top as the ruling class in every way. Trumpism at its core is about the Devine right of kings, that their wealth alone gives them the right to rule our nation and a large portion of the Christian religion preaches the prosperity gospel that the wealthy are blessed by god to rule over us because god have them that wealth as their symbols to teach others how to become that way and yet the mega wealthy have pulled the ladder up behind them.
Nobody knew that the Republican trickle down theory would also allow the mega wealthy to suck up thru the straws of greed every trickle before it ever reached the bottom of the cup of plenty the American people bought into. .
Trump is just the super riches tool to express their wishes to control it all.
The control of trump only requires constant feeding of his ego and narcissism, and even though he is extremely lazy by making him think he is who he thinks he is and that he can be as wealthy as they are financially if he goes along with their wishes his allusion of grander things for himself will allow their 2025 plan to become the law of their new land AMERIKA like Putin did to Russia with his oligarchs.
Trump would and has sold out our nation to the super wealthy like Musk for a hand full of magic beans with the promis of a bean stalk that will take him to the panicle of global power and will his feed narcissists personality that he deserves while being controlled by the mega wealthy strings of power.
I would not surprise me to see them get trump elected then cleverly off him and put their real puppet JD Vance, in the seat and I believe he is far more dangerous than Trump because of age and his willingness to carry out their 2025 plan and change the US Constitution to empower him for decades as president and their chosen ruler for life.