Uncategorized – Sheila Kennedy

Why Red States Are In the Red

A recent column by Michael Hicks in the Capitol Chronicle focused on a data-point that is far too often overlooked. It seems that calling Republican-led states “Red” is entirely appropriate, because most of them are in the red.

(Before going into the details of the column, I want to note that the Chronicle is part of an encouraging trend here in my city–a trend that is also showing up elsewhere. As I have repeatedly noted, the dearth of local reporting has had a very negative effect on democracy and the sense of community. In city after city, local newspapers have either disappeared or–as in Indianapolis–turned into “ghost papers” that no longer cover the sorts of things citizens need to know about their local institutions. Recently, however, we’ve seen several new media entrants that propose to fill the gap–including Axios Indianapolis, The Mirror, State Affairs, and the Chronicle.)

But back to Hicks. He begins this particular column by noting that from the end of World War II up until about 1980, economic differences among the states bore little relationship to the partisanship of those states.

In fact, if you picked just one variable that best measured prosperity — per capita income — the was no correlation with political party. There were rich states led by Republican and Democratic governors and poor states led by both as well.

Over the past 40 years, that changed. Today, 19 of the 20 richest states are solidly Democratic, while 19 of the 20 poorest states are solidly Republican. It is clear that the GOP has become the party of poor states, while the Democrats have become the party of prosperous states.

The question, as usual, is “why?”

One big culprit is that political parties changed, erasing regional differences. Up until the late 90’s, there were conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans. That is no longer the case, so as states began to align with national politics platforms.

This trend more extreme today. Even races for local government tend to be highly nationalized. State and local issues are often ignored in primary or general elections. This homogeneity of national politics naturally tends to cause parties to have success in places that are more similar – polarizing states between parties.

A second trend is the sorting by politics increasingly effects household location choice. Though much sorting happens at the local level, the nationalization of politics means that state borders now effect household location choice.

The nationalization of politics means that each party has been staking out positions that appeal to majorities in key states. In this way, politicians are choosing their voters. The sorting of households reflects voters choosing political landscapes they prefer, on economic, fiscal and cultural issues. This trend appears to be accelerating.

That last paragraph reminded me of the demographic observations in Bill Bishop’s 2009 book The Big Sort.

Hicks acknowledges that there is never one simple reason for economic performance, but he also hones in on what appears to be the largest cause of the disparity between Red and Blue states: public education.

The cause of the economic divergence is because human capital — education, innovation and invention — replaced manufacturing and movement of goods as the primary source of prosperity. This means that places that grow will necessarily need to develop and attract more human capital. But the educational policies pursued by both parties are vastly different, with very different outcomes.

The GOP has largely tried to adopt broad school choice, and cut funding to both K-12 and higher education. The Democrats have largely eschewed school choice, but amply funded both K-12 and higher education. Seventeen of the 20 best funded states are Democratically controlled and 17 out of the 20 lowest funded states are GOP strongholds. Educational outcomes between these states are stark.

Educational attainment differences alone explain about three quarters of the difference in per capita income between states….

Voucher programs haven’t just failed to generate superior test scores. They’ve impoverished our critically important public school systems –and kept Red states like Indiana poor. As Hicks concludes,

Economists have been saying this for three decades, without any effect in poor states. The prognosis is simply that poor states — like Indiana — are going to get poorer for decades to come. While rich states will grow richer.

Not that Indiana’s terrible legislature will take note….

I recently discussed the abysmal effects of voucher programs on the podcast co-hosted by Morton Marcus and John Guy: Who Gets What?

If you have some time, tune in.

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Meanspirited AND Stupid

Today, the Indianapolis Business Journal reported that fifteen Republican Attorneys General (including, of course, Indiana’s embarrassing Todd Rokita) are suing the Biden Administration to block a rule allowing DACA kids access to the Affordable Care Act.

DACA children, in case you’ve forgotten, are the children who were brought to the United States by their undocumented parents when they were very young–children who certainly can’t be accused of intentionally breaking the law, or characterized as “not the best people” in mean-spirited attacks by anti-immigration Republicans. (Okay, to be accurate, MAGA Republicans oppose immigration by Brown and Black people. Canadians and Nordic folks are okay…)

Fifteen states, including Indiana, filed a federal lawsuit Thursday against the Biden administration over a rule that is expected to allow 100,000 immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children to enroll next year in the federal Affordable Care Act’s health insurance.

The states are seeking to block the rule from taking effect Nov. 1 and providing people known as “Dreamers” access to tax breaks when they sign up for coverage. The Affordable Care Act’s marketplace enrollment opens the same day, just four days ahead of the presidential election.

The states filed suit in North Dakota, one of the states involved. All have Republican attorneys general who are part of a GOP effort to thwart Biden administration rules advancing Democratic policy goals.

The lawsuit argues that the rule violates a 1996 welfare reform law and the ACA. They also said it would encourage more immigrants to come to the U.S. illegally, burdening the states and their public school systems. Many economists have concluded that immigrants provide a net economic benefit, and immigration appears to have fueled job growth after the COVID-19 pandemic that prevented a recession.

The lawsuit alleges that “Subsidized health insurance through the ACA is a valuable public benefit that encourages unlawfully present alien beneficiaries to remain in the United States.”

Well, we certainly wouldn’t want these “alien” children to access a “valuable public benefit.”

Not only is this lawsuit more evidence of the mean-spiritedness of MAGA Republicans, it’s incredibly stupid. We’ve had this argument before, after all. There’s a reason California offers health insurance to all residents, and that reason isn’t solely humanitarian. When sizable numbers of people lack health insurance, poverty levels are higher, imposing significant social costs–and people who cannot afford to see a doctor are more likely to spread infections to the general population.

Even if we aren’t talking about serious illnesses, if an uninsured child coughs on a child who is insured, when that child is taken to the doctor, the care she receives drives up costs for everyone.

The GOP effort to exclude poor people from benefits that they are happy to extend to “deserving” Americans isn’t limited to health care. Paul Krugman recently noted the same shortsightedness about school lunches.

Free school meals are a big deal in pure policy terms. They have also met fierce Republican opposition. And the partisan divide over feeding students tells you a lot about the difference between the parties, and why you really, really shouldn’t describe the MAGA movement as “populist.”…

Trying to save money by limiting which children you feed turns out to be expensive and cumbersome; it requires that school districts deal with reams of paperwork as they try to determine which children are eligible. It also imposes a burden on parents, requiring that they demonstrate their neediness.

Overall, the costs of administering means-tested largesse just about equals the cost of food, so free lunches end up being cost-neutral.

Krugman also notes that hungry children don’t learn as well, and cites studies showing that children who received school lunches grow into healthier and more productive adults who pay more in taxes.

But don’t try to explain that to MAGA Republicans–or to the authors of Project 2025.

The project’s magnum opus, “Mandate for Leadership,” whose 900 pages lays out a detailed policy agenda, singles out feeding students as something that should be reined in. “Federal school meals increasingly resemble entitlement programs,” it warns, as if this is self-evidently a bad thing. A bit farther down, it reads, “The U.S.D.A. should not provide meals to students during the summer unless students are taking summer-school classes.” I guess being hungry isn’t a problem when school is out…

The people who will almost certainly make policy if Trump wins are as committed as ever to a right-wing economic agenda of cutting taxes on the wealthy while slashing programs that help Americans in need — including programs that help children.

Refusing to feed hungry schoolchildren–or provide them medical care– in order to save money isn’t just cruel and unfeeling–it’s stupid. There is a reason humanity developed adages like “penny wise, pound foolish.”

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And Now, An Extra: The Democrats

Indiana’s state Democratic convention is over, and as promised, I will devote a post to that party’s slate of statewide candidates. They provide a striking contrast to the theocratic culture warriors who believe they will glide to victory because this is Indiana.

I have admired Jennifer McCormick since she was Indiana’s Superintendent of Public Instruction. That admiration grew when she publicly repudiated the GOP. Unlike other spineless Republican officeholders, she opted to leave a party that held a legislative super-majority and pledge allegiance to a minority party that now stands for positions she cares about–positions the GOP has abandoned. It took guts–and principles.

Jennifer is running a disciplined, strategic campaign focused on those issues: reproductive freedom, public education, union rights and a living wage, and fiscal responsibility. You can learn more about her here.

McCormick chose Terry Goodin to run for Lieutenant Governor. Unlike the Christian Nationalist running for that spot on the GOP’s ticket, Goodin is highly qualified for the position, which is largely focused on agriculture and rural affairs. A former state legislator, Goodin is currently Indiana state director for USDA Rural Development, and has deep roots into communities that tend to vote overwhelmingly Republican. (Like McCormick, Goodin also served several years as a public school superintendent.)

Goodin was initially criticised by Democrats who pointed to his vote in 2011 against same-sex marriage, but like many other Americans, he has grown; he issued a heartfelt apology for that vote, which he now considers hurtful and wrong. He has enthusiastically endorsed McCormicks priorities, especially on reproductive choice and public education.

Valerie McCray is a genuine political outsider. A graduate of Arsenal Tech High School in Indianapolis, she navigated the challenges of being a single mother, while earning a BA, MA, and Ph.D from the University of Michigan, and has spent 35 years as a practicing psychologist. Her professional experience underscored for her the effect of public policies on multiple populations, and convinced her to take her fights for a woman’s right to choose and “beyond-subsistence” wages to Washington. Because she knows “what it’s like to be a struggling middle-class American; a single mom, a student using the same bag for books and diapers,” she will champion “union support, healthcare for all, equal rights for everyone, strengthening public education, and repealing Citizens United,” and she promises to “fight for student loan debt reduction, closing the wealth gap, and funding environmental efforts.” You can learn more about Dr. McCray here.

In their recent convention, Democrats chose Destiny Wells as their candidate for Attorney General. Wells ran an impressive, albeit losing, campaign for Secretary of State two years ago, which she says taught her valuable lessons. Coming, as she says, from eight generations of Indiana farmers, she was a first generation college student at IU; she joined the National Guard and ROTC and today is a a U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel. Along the way, Wells earned a law degree which led to experience serving multiple levels of government and with NATO. (She’s been an Associate Corporation Counsel for Indianapolis, and a Deputy Attorney General for Indiana.) A major theme of her campaign is “restoring integrity to the Office of Attorney General”–a theme that will resonate with anyone who’s familiar with the operation of that office under Todd Rokita. You can learn more about Destiny and her positions here.

Not only are all of these individuals accomplished and highly qualified for the positions they seek, they are running against a collection of looney-tune MAGA extremists. Braun spent his six undistinguished years as a Senator cozying up to Trump. Beckwith is a self-identified Christian Nationalist whose only experience in public office– on a library board– outraged the community by attempting to censor books that offended his fundamentalist religious beliefs. He has NO experience relevant to the job he seeks. Banks is–as I have documented–a culture war zealot and MAGA anti-woke crusader, a clone of Beckwith. And it is impossible to summarize the multiple times I’ve posted about the despicable and unethical behaviors of Attorney General Todd Rokita.

All of these men are anti-choice, anti-gay, and anti-woman.

There is absolutely no reason why the impressive slate of candidates being run by the Democrats can’t win-if they have the resources to distribute their messages and bona fides. (Unless, of course, you agree with the pessimist assertion that all inhabitants of rural Indiana are ignorant racist theocrats who will vote Republican because they agree with the appalling positions of the GOP candidates.)

If you care about women’s reproductive liberty, public education, intellectual freedom and civic equality, send these candidates money. Volunteer for one of their campaigns.

And vote Blue up and down the ballot.

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Let’s Talk Specifics

One thing most Americans can agree upon is that this year’s election is abnormal.

We have a presidential contest featuring a convicted felon– supported by a fact-averse cult–who routinely lies, threatens violence, and violates long-established political norms. (I would add that–although we’ve had some unfortunate political actors in our history–we’ve never previously faced a presidential campaign by someone so obviously, seriously mentally ill.)

Perhaps as a result of that novelty, the traditional press consistently fails to convey the actual stakes of the upcoming election–and those stakes are monumental. Handwringing pundits have complained about that failure, but very few have made specific recommendations for change. For that matter, grousing without suggesting what actions might be helpful characterizes most conversations about the upcoming election.

What should the media do? What should each concerned citizen do?

Jennifer Rubin recently answered that question for the media. She began with a statement of the obvious:

The United States has never had an election in which: a felon runs for president on a major party ticket; a presidential candidate lays out a detailed plan for authoritarian rule; an entire party gaslights the public (e.g., claiming the president was behind their candidate’s state prosecution; pretending they won the last election); and, prominent leaders of one party signal they will not accept an adverse outcome in the next election. Yet, the coverage of the 2024 campaign is remarkably anodyne, if not oblivious, to the unprecedented nature of this election and its implications.

Rather than indulging an obsession with meaningless early polling, Rubin says, show a minute or two of unedited video of Trump’s rambling, incoherent and deranged rants. Rather than “fact checking” the nonsense blizzard, focus on the unprecedented nature of his rhetoric. Illustrate the deterioration in his thinking and speech. Quote experts discussing “how an obviously irrational and unhinged leader casts a spell over his devoted following.”

Rubin says the media should refuse to entertain “laughable MAGA spin,” such as claims that Trump’s conviction will help him win the election. (Those polls they love to cite rebut that premise.) Real journalists would debunk other MAGA lies, including the frequent ones about crowd size.

Reporters should stop giving spineless Republican officials a free pass when they parrot Trump’s obvious falsehoods. Interviewers should be prepared to challenge and debunk them.

You can read the rest of her litany at the link, but the call for specificity also applies to each of us. After all, fulminations on this blog–including mine– are not actions. Sharing memes and “liking” posts on social media aren’t actions.

Other than the obvious–casting our votes and donating to underfunded candidates–what specific activities are available to those of us who understand the gravity of the threat posed by MAGA?

Let me suggest three:

If everyone who recognizes that threat, everyone who agrees that voting Blue up and down the ballot is essential, would find just one rational person who has not previously voted– or who has not voted regularly–and would take it upon herself to ensure that person is registered and casts a ballot, we would assure a Blue tsunami. (Women who have previously skipped elections ought to be prime candidates this year, given the GOP’s unremitting attacks on abortion and birth control.)
When you come across examples of news media engaging in the behaviors Rubin has described, write and complain. If the offending outlet gets enough complaints, especially if those complaints come from subscribers, they’ll notice. They may defend their coverage, but they’re likely to be more careful.
If you are on social media, post accurate, credible information about the actual state of the economy, real numbers about criminal activity, and other facts that rebut widespread misinformation–with links to official sources, if possible. You needn’t get into online arguments (if someone has posted that the stock market is down, or unemployment is up, all you need to do is post an article from, say, the Wall Street Journal or other business publication reporting the fact that the market has hit an all-time high and employment is the highest in fifty years.) The people posting misinformation on Facebook or Tiktok or wherever aren’t people who read the New York Times or Washington Post–or, here in Indiana, the Indianapolis Business Journal. At the very least, you’ll be ensuring that they see something other than Rightwing media misinformation.

If you have the time and can join an activist organization, that would be great, but if large numbers of people just did these three things, it would change the dynamic of America’s upcoming election.

This is our (much safer) beach at Normandy. Storm it.

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Okay, Let’s Talk About Crime

I’ve forgotten the name of the old-time pundit who first summed up the biggest problem we humans face, but Mark Twain is often credited with a variation of it. “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

That observation has never been more apt. In this, our age of the Internet, it’s the things Americans “know” that just aren’t so that have given us our polarized, fraught politics. Think of the things so many Americans wrongly think they know: the 2020 election was stolen, climate change is a hoax, vaccines cause autism and don’t ward off disease, President Biden can control the prosecutor and jury in a state-level trial, the economy is in recession …the list goes on.

Here in Indiana, anyone unfortunate enough to have weathered the vicious and fact-free food fight that was the Republican primary contest for Governor heard increasingly ridiculous claims about crime in the United States. (I’m surprised that anyone listening to–and actually believing–those claims had the courage to leave their homes.)

It really isn’t easy to be and remain this uninformed, but quite obviously, lots of folks manage to believe what they want to believe, easily ascertainable facts be damned.

I recently came across some data on crime, and those facts tell a rather different story than the one being peddled by the GOP.

Despite false claims by Donald Trump that crime has increased under President Joe Biden, PolitiFact confirms that in 2022, the violent crime rate neared a 50-year low.

That’s not all. Preliminary statistics for 2023 indicate the lowest levels of violent crime ever recorded, dropping below previous records in 2014 and 2019. And that’s still not all, because right now it appears that 2024 is still trending down…

There are fewer violent crimes now than there were in 1971 under Richard Nixon, despite a population that has increased by over 100 million people. Today we are experiencing not simply fewer crimes per person, but fewer crimes overall. According to FBI statistics, there were over 5 million fewer violent crimes in the United States last year than in the final full year of Ronald Reagan’s “tough on crime” administration.

After peaking in 1991 under George H. W. Bush, violent crime has been slowly declining year over year. There have been a few exceptions: Some categories of violent crime, including murder, were up in 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic. Even then, those numbers didn’t come close to the levels seen in the 1980s or 1990s.

The numbers in the quoted article–together with their links to official sources of the data– directly contradict one of the GOP’s major talking points. That was the barely veiled racist claim made in virtually all of those nasty commercials, the claim that it is immigrants who are generating this invented “crime wave.” (“Be very afraid of those Brown people”…)

Since the statistics show that crime is actually going down, Trump has also jumped in with a false attack on FBI crime statistics, adding “fake numbers” to the list of things he can dismiss when they don’t fit his narrative. Fox News has also been leading the charge to undercut the truth by pushing an evidence-free claim from a recently formed right-wing group insisting that America has suddenly developed an issue with counting crimes.

Well, when the evidence fails to support one’s preferred world-view, I guess the only thing you can do is attack the veracity of the evidence. Or–as the linked article suggests–revise your definition of what constitutes a crime.

Only 18% of Republicans admit that Jan. 6 insurrectionists were violent and 45% believe punishment of those who fought with police, smashed their way into the Capitol, and tried to capture members of Congress has been too harsh. An eyebrow-raising 86% of Republicans don’t hold Trump to blame for any of it. But then 85% of Republicans don’t believe Trump should be prosecuted for any of the crimes he’s been charged with so far. It turns out Republicans are soft on crime—so long as it’s Republican crime.

I guess if a Republican does it, it isn’t a crime.

Also, the increasing incidents of violent weather aren’t evidence of climate change, the stock market hasn’t recently reached unprecedented highs, unemployment isn’t at a 50-year low…

As that old saying goes, it isn’t not knowing (and knowing that we don’t know) that gets us into trouble–it’s knowing things that “just ain’t so.”

Give these partisan ideologues credit. It isn’t easy avoiding fact-based reporting in order to double down on those preferred “alternative facts.” Of course, listening only to Faux News helps….

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