It is certainly possible that I am engaging in the confirmation bias I constantly warn others about, but I recently read an essay recommended by Robert Hubbell, whose Substack newsletter I get, and I found it persuasive. It was titled “The Wind Has Changed,” and–assuming the accuracy of its observations–ought to give aid and comfort to citizens terrified of MAGA victories this November.
Here are a few of those observations, written just after the House agreed to vote on the much-delayed assistance to Ukraine. The essay charted changes that–as Hubbell often cautions–should make us hopeful but not complacent.
The MAGA movement got splintered last night, and I for one don’t think they have the skill to put Humpty-Dumpty together again. (How’s that for mixed metaphors? Good?)
For one thing, J.D. Vance, Moscow Marge, and the rest of the Space Laser Putin Caucus, got thrown under the bus by Fearless Leader last night – who may not be able to do much, but he can read polls. He knows the wind has shifted, that the wind is filling the sails and we are beginning to move out of The Doldrums. He knows he’s losing control.
After last night, Ukraine aid will pass. Mike Johnson and Mitch McConnell braved the FART (Floor Action Response Team) of the Space Laser Putin Caucus and Did The Right Thing.
Trump gave Mike Johnson and Mitch McConnell the green light, while at the same time casting J.D. Vance, Marjorie Taylor-Greene, and the rest of the Russia Traitors over the side.
The essential line of Trump’s “Truthing” post last night is this: “As everyone agrees, Ukraine Survival and Strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us!”
He’s not doing this because he cares about Ukraine; he’s doing this because the polls are shifting; he needs fewer hassles. The wind is changing.
As the essay notes, Trumpism – “particularly its J.D. Vance-led German-American Bund Putinism” – is pessimistic. Trump and what the writer aptly dubs the “Space Laser Caucus” constantly tell supporters “We need to retreat, withdraw, hide, and let regional warlords like Putin reign over as much territory as they can seize.”
But constant pessimism has a sell-by date.
MAGA broke something in the House. Retirements are up. Swing seats are in danger. The endless infighting has soured many “normie” Republicans on the Space Laser Caucus and their strategy of screaming, throwing feces like a rabid monkey in a zoo, and all the performative lying. Even in the right-wing media bubble, the act has gotten old.
Fox has had enough of Marjorie Traitor Goon’s tantrums, her unearned sense of entitlement, and her political terrorism.
The perverse incentives of MAGA rewarded the Space Laser Caucus while leaving the rest – or at least those not representing the most ruby-red districts – fearing electoral survival this fall.
It turns out that shitting in the punchbowl is unwelcome over time. The tell is that Fox has slowly stopped booking the MAGA clowns while Rupert and Lachlan try to find and anoint the Next Star after their major fakakte with DeSantis.
The author points to the likely defeats of crazy caucus members Gaetz and Boebert, and asserts that the House GOP is staring down the barrel of a political gun.
Happy warriors like Jamie Raskin, Jared Moskowitz, Eric Swalwell, Jasmine Crockett and others know who is in charge in the House now.
Chuck Schumer managed to keep his caucus together, pulling in some GOP support, as the Senate schooled the Space Laser Caucus about their impeachment clown show of the House. No high drama; just procedural murder
What has been going on at 100 Centre Street in New York City, where Trump is finally facing the prospect of justice for his crimes in a case that now is seen as far more important than it was originally, is also a good sign the tide and wind are changing.
Here in Indiana, the disarray of the GOP is seen daily by those of us bombarded by the increasingly nasty, unhinged accusations being leveled by Republicans running for Governor. Anyone who thinks that these candidates will smile and play nice after the primary is smoking something. Meanwhile, Senate candidate Jim Banks may no longer have a primary opponent, but his membership in the Space Laser Caucus and his constant support of unpopular bills–ranging from a national ban on abortion with no exceptions to his recent bill to defund NPR–suggest that he is far, far to the Right of most Hoosier Republicans. In contrast, for once, Indiana Democrats are working together and fielding a first-rate statewide ticket.
Even in Indiana, the wind is shifting.
That is good news for sure. Now, if only the IN Democrats would come out of seclusion and SAY something….Get on TV….DO something. I expect 95% of IN Voters could not tell you their names. Time is short. Come out come out wherever you are.
Yes, it’s time for the Indiana Democrats to make noise in the media. Remember, though, getting attention requires more than snapping fingers. It costs money. Ads cost a lot. Staff costs. Transportation, technology, printing, rent and meals cost money. Anyone who criticizes candidates for failing to emerge from the shadows better make sure they’ve donated enough to build the stage and fire up the spotlights.
I am glad to see that you included J. D. Vance in the group of MAGA space laser crazies. However, unlike Taylor-Green and her crowd, he is intelligent, articulate and skilled at public speaking.
He gave a big speech on the Senate floor this past week in opposition to the aid package to Ukraine. He made a few good points reminiscent of 1960s anti-war days. After addressing the aid issue he moved onto his belief that the United States was a Christian nation, and that all of Europe was Christian too, and that we needed to reaffirm and reestablish both. Shades of Christian Nationalism going global.
As for the silence of Indiana candidates, I suspect that with limited financial support they are “keeping their powder dry” until Fall.
David Dawson, thank you for bringing up the reality of politics. Money is required to get the message out to voters. Jennifer McCormick, Marc Carmicheal and Destiny Wells have donor links on their websites. State and county candidates can also get more to notice their campaigns with a donation.
David, your insight is unfortunately true to a fault – political campaigns require funding, and with our democracy at stake and the prospect of such leaders as Banks, MTG, Vance, Trump, and other such political creatures in charge of our government, we are called upon to contribute big time. This is no time to be a Scrooge. Donate!
While this is good news, the important point you made in the second paragraph is vital; we must not become complacent as a result of an early poll. This far before an election, the polls mean almost nothing, and new challenges continue to arise.
One essay I have read lately, but cannot find to share, is noting how many D’s failed to cast a vote in their down-ballot in the past election. In other words, they voted for Biden and left the rest of the ballot blank. Had they voted for D’s all the way down, the makeup of the House, Senate, and several state legislatures would be very different.
What will it take to get D’s off their asses and take action, even the least action they can take, which is to vote? Even if Biden wins the next election, without a Congress that will work with him, progress will be severely limited.
James writes, “What will it take to get D’s off their asses…?”
Here’s the reality: Calling our youth “terrorists” for protesting genocide on college campuses will not gain votes in the Fall.
Also, banning the most popular social media app for the under-thirty crowd will not get you votes. TikTok has 8 million businesses and 170 million users.
When the general behind the genocide (Netanyahu) tells your country to clear out the college campus protesters because they are anti-semitic, and all the AIPAC-owned Washington politicians agree, it will NOT get you votes in the Fall.
Marc and other local down-ballot Democrats will get screwed because they need the under-thirty crowd to win in a state like Indiana. You can kiss it goodbye now.
Biden is trying to lose this election to Trump. He’s too old, he’s committing a genocide, and now his policies suck. His only appeal is old boomers gathering news on MSNBC and CNN.
Many of us journalists out there are waiting to hear from the MAGA Caucus, who have bus tracks all over their backs on what’s their next move. Trump pushed them under the bus for sure. Lindsey Graham gave that away. I’ve always said the two-party effort was a collaboration. We’ll have to find out what they have in store for voters because many MAGAs are lost right now.
Todd. There you go, hating on Biden again. While you are making absolute predictions about election results, you might want to think about what will happen if folks buy into your world view, stay home or vote for someone who can’t possibly win on election day, and the orange menace worms his way back into office. I’ve asked you this before, but you never answered. Is that what you want?
Thank you Sharon!
Sadly, one of the things the Orange narcissist does well is to read the pulse. And, if he’s changing his tune, that’s good sign about the direction of the wind.
MTG, and the other crazies have shown that their entire thing is just show. And, if Gaetz is beaten, in November, I will be hugely surprised, in any case…there being so many fools in Florida!
Todd, the MAGAs seem to have been lost for so many years, it’s impossible to think of them as anything but lost. That said, I agree with you on the issue of support for Israel. I would love to have Biden stand up and say that the aid to Israel will only go to defensive systems. More support for the Palestinians would be a better choice, including a restatement of support for a two state solution, which can be done by reversing our vote on UN membership for Palestine.
Wondering who you think are the least-awful Republicans in the GOP primary contest in Indiana. There are no choices to make on the Democratic primary ticket except for treasurer.
So, the only thing that counts in elections is money? Yes, a certain amount is needed to get on the ballot, set up a website, hire a few staff…BUT getting out and speaking about issues, energizing volunteers REALLY count – likely much more than fancy ads and whatever else you are saying is missing.
What makes cults grow is darkness. Exclusivity. Nobody disagrees.
When the light comes and all of the ‘other side’ enters the believers’ room, it sorts them into the categories of ‘too late to see’ and ‘still thinking.’
I’ve sensed the light entering Foxworld, too.
Michelle: there is a Democratic primary contest for U.S. Senate. Marc Carmichael is opposed by a woman named Valerie McCrae. She has run several times before (once for President!), but a lot of people who don’t know much about either candidate will vote for a woman. Marc can win against Jim Banks (Indiana’s version of Marjorie Taylor Green), she cannot. Please pull a Democratic ballot.
The Biden administration believes we must destroy democracy in order to save it.
If you ascribe to such a notion, you must vote for Biden.
If you support the facilitation of ethnic cleansing, Biden is the man.
If you have the need for authoritative censorship and can withstand more inflation, vote Biden.
If you’re concerned about the pensions of Ukrainian political executives, you must vote Biden.
If you have a depraved indifference to human life’ you need a kindred spirit and that spirit runs deep within Biden.
I would think a political party that prides itself for diversity, supporting the underdog and of support for minorities would be more enthusiastic in support for the hourly wage earner…but alas, no dice.
If, in a few years, Caucasians will be a minority, it stands to reason the majority of hourly wage earners will be of origins non-Caucasian. So why is the party that sees itself as the bellwether of change ignoring this evolving constituency?
I have an idea as to why.
Protesting will soon be outlawed.
It wasn’t immigrants that caused this to happen.
It wasn’t the Russians that caused this banishment.
It wasn’t the fault of christians or catholics.
This was not caused by rural people.
I cannot solely blame the reprobates—er, Republicans.
Democracy is imploding. And the orange one isn’t in office.
Where does the buck stop?
for another somewhat hopeful point of view, check out Paul Campos at Lawyers Guns and Money.
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/04/the-world-is-changed-cassandra-on-zoloft
Roe can and should drive out women who want reproductive choice to be theirs, not some politician’s. Men have yet to realize how Roe will change their lives profoundly. DNA testing makes paternity hard to deny. Liability for paternity lasts for years. Contraception is next on the block. Men will pay a price, maybe not as high as women whose lives are at stake, but a price both financial, emotional and psychological in the long term.
I wonder how many women have thought about the likely availability of ob/gyn medical treatment, even beyond childbearing years, here in Indiana. We are already seeing the effects of draconian laws against doctors and patients in places like Idaho which has already lost 22% of their ob/gyn practitioners.
Our illustrious General Assembly has shown time and again that they will cheerfully follow the most extreme suppressive moves against women’s reproductive choice. Down ballot means just as much as federal offices.
If we have no other reason to vote, that should be enough. Contribute what you can to candidates you support.
I am not so sanguine as to have confidence in a Trump loss. OR – for that matter a loss for Braun. Braun is leading – that tells me of the power of MAGA in Indiana.
You should have just stopped with:
“ It is certainly possible that I am engaging in the confirmation bias”
That would have been the truest statement
of the whole blog.