How Conspiracy Theories Work

I have a confession to make. In the aftermath of the attempt on Trump’s life, my first reaction was suspicion that he’d arranged the whole thing. After all, it would be just like him to produce a scenario where he could play the brave victim…and with the death of the shooter, there would be no evidence…

Okay–not my finest moment. But a cursory scan of my FaceBook page provided evidence that I wasn’t the only person open to similar fantasies, and that, in turn, led me to consider just how America got to the stage where conspiracy theories have more force and impact than facts.

An interesting experiment sheds some light on that inquiry: a while back, The New Republic ran an article detailing a “prank” that illustrated how such theories spread. The article began:

Bird propaganda is everywhere, once you’re trained to recognize it. Since the Cold War, children have eaten their breakfast cereals with Toucan Sam and spent their after-school hours learning at Big Bird’s oversize feet. Television has streamed into our homes and onto our smartphones under the strutting sign of NBC’s rainbow peacock. Penguins gaze out at us from our bookshelves. Eagles, the government insists, are patriotic symbols of strength and freedom. Duolingo uses an earnest but irritating green owl to engineer our digital behavior and shame us into learning rudimentary Portuguese.

As you catch your breath from this unnerving revelation, you should also know that there is a growing movement online determined to reveal the truth: that none of this is benign, none of it accidental. That Americans are being birdwashed into docility and obedience.

Calling itself Birds Aren’t Real, this group of primarily Gen Z truthers swaps ­memes and infographics on social media (the official accounts boast more than 800,000 followers on TikTok and 400,000 on Instagram), challenges the powers that be with combative media appearances, and holds rallies across the country. They explain that the U.S. government secretly ran a “mass bird genocide” starting in the late 1950s, replacing the real avian population with sophisticated surveillance-drone look-alikes. Bird-watching now goes both ways.

The group’s leaders even published a book, in which they “revealed” that the government’s bird genocide plot was hatched by “notorious CIA director Allen Dulles—when he wasn’t spearheading the MK-Ultra mind-control program.” They provided “evidence” of the complicity of presidents from Eisenhower to Biden, and a field guide for recognizing bird-drones in the “wild.”

“Birds Aren’t Real” was an elaborate prank, what the article calls “a knowing satire of American conspiratorial thinking in the century of QAnon–an experiment in misinformation. And it demonstrates the elements needed for a successful conspiracy theory. First of all, it offers a “theory of everything”—a way for people to make sense of the world’s complexity and contradictions, to tie up all the loose ends. Good conspiracy theories offer “arguments by adjacency,” meaning that arguably related credible facts are used to “prove” wilder claims, “offering just enough truth to make you wonder.”

Finally, successful conspiracy theories are able to perform a kind of psychic alchemy for their followers. On the one hand, they drain pleasure from everyday life. Nothing can be innocent; everything is wrapped up in the plot. QAnon supporters pull away from friends and family, convinced that the people they most love have become satanic cultists. Birds Aren’t Real tells you that you can’t enjoy simple joys like nature walks and bird-watching, family Christmases (eating turkey is “ritualized bird worship”), or even your pets. People with birds at home are advised “to calmly pack your things in the middle of the night and leave. Make sure your bird does not see you leave.” Your pet bird never loved you, for it was merely a government drone-robot, but at least now the imminent danger has passed.

The article notes that conspiracy theories offer people agency in a world that seems fallen to pieces, and it reports and analyzes the efforts underway to combat them. It’s a fascinating–albeit somewhat depressing–read.

When I thought about the elements needed for wide acceptance of a conspiracy theory, I realized mine lacked them. My reaction was more a suspicion than a theory–it didn’t explain everything (like why anyone sane thinks Trump is fit to be President); the only available “argument from adjacency” is that Trump, who lies constantly, is demonstrably capable of inventing and spreading misinformation. And my theory would hardly offer agency to those of us who are shocked and saddened by realizing that large numbers of our fellow Americans are drinking Trump’s Kool-Aid.

There’s probably a lot of overlap between MAGA folks and those who believe that Birds Aren’t Real….

19 Comments

  1. The most effective “conspiracy theory” is religion and it’s been around for almost all of human history and prehistory. There must be a “built-in” human construct for power over others and appealing to the supernatural is the most effective.

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  3. Sheila, you weren’t alone. My suspicion went a step further, that perhaps the Project 2025 crowd were unhappy he was trying to distance himself from them, realized he’d already served his purpose in rallying the bigots, and thought he’d be more useful as a martyr.
    But, it never got beyond conjecture.
    I guess I’m not built to be a conspiracy theorist…that discarding of reality wears me out.

  4. You made my day with “Duolingo uses an earnest but irritating green owl to engineer our digital behavior and shame us into learning rudimentary Portuguese.”

  5. As a former science educator, I was committed to using the scientific method for all things controversial. UN-teaching what churches poured into kids’ heads was a daunting task. What Anita stated above explains so much about the human condition that feeds, among other things, a hostile form of tribalism that won’t ever be dispelled no matter what. There is no “sky pilot” to save us all from our stupidity and ancient “survival” skill set.

    I’ve mentioned the irony of human existence before regarding being the only known species to create the means for its own extinction.

    Cheers. Go Kamala, go!

  6. On the other hand, one thing that’s been true of the Trump era since he came down that escalator in 2015, and it’s been said over and over, is, “you just can’t make this shit up.” Seriously though, the fact that so many of us wouldn’t put it past the Trump camp to sacrifice a couple of supporters in a staged assassination attempt to get a bump in the poles says volumes about our “Trump fatigue” after the constant barrage of lies and insanity over the last nearly a deacade.

  7. We have a real problem staring us in the face. This latest shooting is simply another incident of a young man who feels invisible. The only people who see him are the bullies who make him miserable. Well we all know who Thomas Crooks is today. He’s not invisible any longer, but not alive to enjoy his notoriety.

    This is the red flag that tells us it’s time for a deep dive to find the root cause of this American anomaly. It’s not just social media, there must be other pieces to the isolation. Are there any social science types out there? I’m pretty sure there’s a good shot at NIH funding.

  8. I had that same suspicion…and it lingers.
    Though I believe that the shooter was a troubled young man, and he would have tried to assassinate Biden had that opportunity come first.
    I don’t think I have heard anything in discussions about this incident about the problem of too many guns in the hands of too many people who shouldn’t have them.

  9. Ditto here: my first thought was that tfg staged this, and simply burst a phony “blood” capsule near his ear. But, I was, as others, easily dissuaded of this concept, instead of taking it to some next level of intrigue.
    Anita, good point. But, humans love fairy tales and drama.
    Kudos to Biden! Kudos to Kamala!

  10. Anna,

    Both of Crooks’ parents were counselors, and their son used a rifle his dad bought legally. He didn’t have mental issues, nor was he bullied. The current twist to the shooting is a reverse ping on a device showing that someone visiting Crooks’ home and work also visited a building across the street from the FBI office in Washington. We’ll see where this goes…and the US SS screwed up security so badly that the Director had to resign. She had no choice. During the inquiry, she tried to protect the department, but it was clear what she was hiding.

    Conspiracies exist because our government and the media often lie. As a result, they are not trusted. If you have an X account, you can follow politicians from both parties who lie daily. They cover up the real purpose of their bills with virtuous names. I laugh every time they talk about “American values.” The ONLY American value is MONEY. Everything else is bullshit.

    A classic video about Biden’s debate performance circulated this past week. It shows his vacuous expressions and comments, with clips of media voices claiming Biden is “sharp as a tack.” It’s both hilarious and pitiful. Before the debate, the media was told what to say about Biden to cover up his cognitive decline.

    This is just a tiny fragment of what we get in the US under the guise of politics. It’s mostly lies, and nobody is held accountable for them. You’re gullible and naive if you believe the news on your television. I go through X daily and follow journalists and academics who fact-check everything with open tabs on Google Search, Google Translate, and Wikipedia.

  11. The shooting was emblematic of the toxic mix of our culture – one part “ME and my brand are all that matters” add to “15 minutes of fame as an influencer/celebrity” and stir with more guns than the rest of the planet combined. No politics needed.

  12. There were some real screw ups by the secret service. A person really took shots at Trump. One thing I did see from Heather Cox Richardson, she mentioned that 5 other secret service agents near Trump were injured by flying debris. I didn’t see the source of this report nor was reported in any of the other media sources I usually follow, so I don’t know if it’s 100% credible. But, I do know there has been NO STATEMENT from Trump’s medical personnel and it is entirely possible Trump was not hit by a bullet. Getting hit by a bullet plays better than getting hit by flying debris, but with a pathological liar like Trump, it will be years before we know anything close to the truth, if ever.

    So maybe there is room for some conspiracy theories.

  13. tfg does outdoor rallies because they are cheaper rather than worry about assassins. SS details assigned to him must be those the department is trying to push out. Give them a job where it is impossible to meet the performance requirements, trying to keep a malicious narcissist secure when he wants nothing to inhibit his lust for attention. Makes me think that they also might be followers or opportunists looking to move into more lucrative private employ.
    That being said, I thought the same at first. When I heard that there were casualties among the crowd, I had second thoughts.
    Some of the current theories include the CIA’s involvement, just like almost every assassination since JFK. Putin knows that playbook by heart.
    Bottom line is that all those theories intend to promote chaos, fear and distrust. Fact checking as much as possible has become second nature for me in the last 8 years. I do it constantly and realize that I do it because I have become cynical and sceptical of MSM reporting. Maybe that is a good thing, making me think critically.

  14. Yeah I think Lester is pretty spot-on today.

    Vary to the point, as always.

    That being said, I think or at least it seems, the alternate realities that people desire to live in, become more and more appealing, has Sheila’s thread states, it gives a certain license, and, a certain sense of belonging to something that they feel kinship with.

    The Tea party was the biggest explosion of conspiracy theories, then you had Q’anon, the modern version of deep throat who was supposed to be in the know like the baby eating liberal cannibals living in a pizza parlor basement.

    Now that in itself is bizarre, but obviously not bizarre enough to stop somebody from going in and shooting up the place trying to save the babies from being eaten. People for the most part are really mentally ill. They were probably thinking all of those babies that they’re saving from abortion are going to be eaten by liberal cannibals! AOC, and H Clinton are obviously two liberals that crave freshly born babies obviously, because politics determines cannibalistic behavior!

    When you as a group, and I’m not talking about here, but any group starts to flood social media with conspiracies that are not rooted in any sort of evidentiary fact, people realize they can basically spew forth any sort of lie and it ends up becoming someone’s gospel truth. And, the insanity is definitely going to get worse. The trigger has been tripped, The potential first gentleman probably is the one authorizing space lasers, and, Asian Indians actually have swastikas on their ancient temples in the Indus valley which by the way were the first Aryans and obviously are not white! Wow isn’t that an oxymoron? And we know they worship cows right?

    We can see the hatred because of the Republican nominee JD Vance having a wife who is Asian Indian. And I don’t understand how that man could put his wife through what she’s having to deal with right now, and his kids. He’s just sacrificing his family to The party of Baal, throwing them into the fire! For what?

    I don’t think Vernon could make something like this up, because truth seems to be much stranger than fiction. Not that Vern doesn’t write truth to power, but, I’m sure even he finds it hard to process this sort of insanity.

    Back to DT, now the information is, the officer that fell off the roof after this kid pointed his rifle at him, gave the kid an extra three or four minutes before he fired off a shot at the stage. Now why would it take that long? The call goes out and they take DT off the stage! Maybe someone was hoping he was successful? I have no idea, because dead men tell no tails. They still haven’t had a definitive answer on Kennedy, there’s still a million conspiracies floating around.

    This thing is not over by a long shot, the inmates have the upper hand right now. And it probably is only going to get worse.

  15. Thanks again Sheila for another insightful post. The more I watched whatever it was that happened in Butler, PA, the stranger the whole scenario seemed to me and the more questions I had. Key facts are missing, so I submit that your theory is not as out to lunch as you think. Here’s what’s missing: has whatever it was that struck Trump been obtained and/or examined by the FBI or whatever agency is in charge of the investigation? Has the item been tied to Thomas Crooks’s weapon?

    What about the alleged “injury”? Why has no actual TREATING physician spoken about the injury, treatment rendered, tests done and prognosis? MAGA Dr. Ronny Jackson’s statement doesn’t count–he worked in the Trump White House, wasn’t there and didn’t treat Trump. Eric Trump claimed that the projectile cut off the top of Trump’s ear. That’s clearly not true. Ronny Jackson said that Trump sustained a 2 cm. laceration. 2 cm., as I recall from high school math, is less than one inch (2.54 cm = 1 inch). So, if there was a less-than-one-inch laceration, was the big bandage even necessary? Of course, Trump used the bandage of a symbol of his “manliness” and the MAGA crowd wore bandages with the US flag printed on them in solidarity. The laceration might not have been deep enough to even require sutures. Antibiotic ointment might have sufficed.

    As you said, Sheila, Trump is a showman, and, to me at least, the thing that most made me question whether it was staged is the way Trump smacked the side of his head (which you would do to release a packet of stage blood), he didn’t get down right away, and then the fist-pumping and lip-biting made-for-TV photos that followed which he is, of course, using for fundraising.

    Dr. Vin Gupta, who did not treat Trump, said that if a bullet from an AR-15 even grazed Trump, there could be concerns other than a laceration. I think he called it “tangential gun shot injury”. Dr. Gupta said that the force behind a bullet fired from one of these high-powered weapons is so strong that even if it grazes you, it could cause intracranial bleeding. He said there are reported cases in which someone had a slow brain bleed that didn’t manifest itself until much later, in the form of cognitive problems. Dr. Gupta also said that there were reports that Trump had a brain CT scan. What were the findings? Even without a slow brain bleed, the concussive force of a bullet could cause brain damage and/or hearing loss that might take months or even longer to manifest itself.

    I do not doubt that Thomas Crooks fired his weapon, but there is still no proof that a bullet he fired struck Trump or caused any injury. There are conspiracy theorists who say that there was more than one shooter that day and that Crooks was the only one who got caught. When the key forensic evidence has not been disclosed and when there is no treating doctor who has done a news conference, but instead, a Trump ally who wasn’t even there reports on the alleged injury, and knowing Trump, I have questions.

  16. So many thoughts have gone through my head ever since the “bullet” zinged past tfg’s dear little ear (the only “medical reports” are from the only “medical professional” who has attended and treated the wound—good ol’ Ronny Jackson. Who, btw, seems to have lost his license to practice medicine a few years ago, except in the capacity of emergency, in the National Guard! Only!)
    Many of my conversations these days begin with “I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but…” Enough that I was starting to feel like I was maybe a little unbalanced. Then, a couple times, in reading Heather Cox Richardson’s post where she stated the same concerns, I began to feel better about where my thoughts were going.
    I still have the same concerns, but have been feeling much, much better since Sunday past. Hurrah Kamala!!

  17. FWIW (for what it’s worth…perhaps, a “theory”)…saw a report early on that the bullet hit a plastic sign and a piece of plastic hit his ear, not a bullet…

  18. Lester, I believe they first said that the bullet shattered the teleprompter security case surrounding Trump, and a piece of that clipped his ear. However, after watching multiple views of the shooting, I didn’t see anything shatter.

    From 150 yards, nobody could intentionally clip an ear, just barely missing the head. Trump turned at just the right time to avoid a frontal headshot.

    Who knows, maybe Melania hired Crooks to end her husband’s life so she could avoid the prenup she signed. Melania has a million more reasons to kill Trump than Crooks. 😉

  19. When we first viewed the trump rally where it looked like he sustained an ear wound we thought it could be staged. My husband said trump likes to watch professional wrestling and that was a technique that wrestlers use to slap a blood capsule on their face to fake an injury.
    The question is the lapse in highly professional security, almost like it was planned or at least allowed.
    I’m glad the bullet missed its mark or Republicans could have replaced trump with a more appealing and electable presidential candidate.
    The acceptance of conspiracy theories by the masses is a phenomenon that definitely has many aspects and reasons. The outcome is unity of thought or all on the same page in their book. Seeing Magas working toward their anti-democratic destructive aims where they are in charge is frightening.

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