When I began this blog 15+ years ago, it was with the intention of exploring issues of public policy–delving into the details of American policy debates, and providing illustrations of one of my repeated mantras, “it’s more complicated than that.”
I really, really want to return to those discussions, but they’ve been eclipsed by an election that threatens to substitute a theocratic/autocratic administration for a system that–despite all of its flaws–has steadily moved us toward a more humane and inclusive society.
Rather than delving into the pros and cons of a universal basic income, or the age at which citizens should be able to access social security, or similar issues, we are faced with an angry, fearful cult determined to withhold any and all social or democratic benefits from nonWhite, nonChristian Americans–including even the acknowledgment that they are Americans. It is not hyperbole, unfortunately, to say that November’s election will determine whether the American experiment will continue.
Because that statement isn’t hyperbole, the hysteria of Democrats is understandable. But “understandable” doesn’t mean that the hourly assault of text messages and emails begging for money isn’t incredibly annoying. It doesn’t excuse the desperation and exaggeration accentuated by the weird typefaces and pulsating underlinings.
I don’t get messages from the GOP, so I am unable to compare the tone of their solicitations to those I do receive, but recently, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo considered the differences–differences which, in his analysis, mirror differences in Democratic and Republican psychology.
He considered what’s behind “Democrats’ tendency to freak out, even in the face of the most limited kinds of disappointing news in polls or other markers of campaign performance?”
Democrats are almost always worried they’re going to lose the race while Republicans are all but certain they’re going to win. This is a consistent pattern more or less unconnected to the objective indicators. The same reality is embedded in campaign fundraising emails. Most Democratic ones could be summarized as “all hope is lost; send money for us to have any chance” while most Republican ones are essentially “send more money for us to destroy the bad people.” We see it in campaign tactics. It’s pretty common, especially at the presidential level, for Republican campaigns to claim they’re headed for a runaway victory as a way to overawe and demoralize their Democratic opponents. Again, it would simply never work for Democrats to try the same for reasons that are probably obvious.
Marshall concedes that this year has given Democrats rational reasons for concern. The stakes of this election are higher than they have been in decades.
Trump already showed us who he was as President and the current version of the man is more focused on vengeance and more prepared, largely through a more built-up cadre of lieutenants, to exact that revenge. There’s also the unforgettable fact that Donald Trump has twice over-performed the polls. Why would we think it couldn’t happen again? But with all of this, over the last four or five days a very fractional shift in campaign polls convinced a lot of Democrats that Kamala Harris had botched her campaign and was headed toward defeat. By way of comparison, consider that the Trump campaign spent almost the entirety of the 2020 race behind by between five and ten points and it never seemed to occur to Republicans that they’d lose. 2016 was at least a bit similar. There’s clearly a difference between these two groups.
Marshall points to research showing that over the past several years, authoritarian Americans have migrated into the Republican Party, while most non-authoritarian folks became Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents. Today, one party is primarily centered on power and certainty, while the other is centered on process and doubt.
As he says, people don’t gravitate toward certain ideologies over others based on rational analysis.
They appeal or don’t appeal to people with certain mindsets which are based on experience, upbringing, certain kinds of acculturation… It’s no surprise that the kind of electoral/political sorting we’re describing would create one community with an overflow of these tendencies just as Republicans have an overflow of focus on power, certainty and even violence.
The next time I get one of those text messages proclaiming that “everything is lost”–or at least, will be lost unless I immediately remit ten dollars to candidate A or organization B–I need to remember Marshall’s analysis.
I can also remind myself that, in only a few more days, depending on voter turnout, I can either return to policy discussions…or proceed to document the effort to end the American experiment.
the big money spent on elections would be better used if it was for educating the public about candidates. or atleast, make the truth to fact. theres too much under the rug in alot of these people. and some of it BS. if citizen united is a mess, then limit all donations,from any enity. and never from forigen anything.
weve become numb to this carpet bombing by ads for donations. mine went to food and handouts to less fortunate that these polys have made. i bet a buncha them via my junk mail address, my private mail, is for the family/close aquaintance. try that. my phone is flip, no apps, never app. its a gateway to misery. now add all thta money up for this election. seems eduaction is taking the hit. the lack of…
I think that those of us who are most comfortable with uncertainty are more likely to understand and practice a scientific approach to problem solving. This is because science requires us to reject certainty and continue questioning even those things we tend to accept as true.
Contrast that with those who fear and reject uncertainty. They are most likely to tend toward fundamentalism.
Ideally, an individual would strike a balance between these two poles, accepting ultimate uncertainty but being aware that scientifically verifiable evidence is the best guide we have for decision making.
Since polls have a poor track record of providing scientifically reliable evidence, we would do well to look to other sources to understand the current state of the campaigns.
Well, the necessity for getting money for campaigns has a connection to the egregious and idiotic Republican-majority SCOTUS decision: Citizens United v. FEC. NO other democracy allows this kind of legalized bribery. Even banana republics haven’t codified graft.
To the point of Republicans emitting “we’re gonna win in a landslide” rhetoric: It’s typical of most everything Republican. It’s B.S. They are in the business of conning people too busy to do analyses. It’s what they’ve done since Lincoln was shot. Don’t think so? Go back to “trickle-down” economics. Even the not-very-bright George H.W. Bush saw that as “voo-doo” economics. And yet … That idiocy is still with us. Just look at the diverging salary curves between working people and money people. It’s obscene. And yet …
Put cash in an envelope and send it to your candidate. If you don’t want to be added to every list, anonymous giving is the best option. Stay away from Act Blue and other fundraising collectives online. They will share your address with everyone. The ones that sneak through get assigned to Junk Mail immediately.
Because of the Electoral College, we don’t have a 50-state election. Indiana goes to Republicans, and Illinois goes to Democrats. Michigan is a swing state where the national politicians focus. It then becomes a numbers game. If the turnout is small, Republicans win. If the turnout exceeds a certain percentage, it guarantees a Democrat victory. I believe that’s why Democrats focus on fear tactics. They have to motivate the unmotivated.
The last I checked, Indiana has one of the lowest voter turnouts in the US, usually hovering in the low 20s. What would our state look like if we had a 40% turnout? Would gerrymandering districts still protect Republicans?
Returning to policy-type posts will depend on who wins the presidency. If Trump wins, more than enough subject matter will fly daily to keep us busy. 😉
Lost in the recesses of my memory is the name of a Cornell economist who wrote books that outlined life in terms of being arms races. What he pointed out was the reality that was popular then. It was titled “Cold War” and was a benign feature over which superpowers could compete. Who had the most significant nuclear arsenal?
After years of such nonsense soaking up billions (trillions of dollars were not yet a legitimate unit of measure), how many times over could each side kill everyone on the other side?
While I looked at that as cultural foolishness, it did serve us well in that nobody did anything threatening to each other. It was indeed a war of words.
Moving on until this decade. Trump has been in a self-pleasuring arms race over his greatness my entire life. His mentor, the infamous Roy Cohen, got him on a headline arms race as soon as he became an adult, and because it stroked his ego, he ran the first-ever uncontested arms race of publicity.
Kamala Harris passed him in two months this year.
However, some archaic rules in our elections are hard-wired in. They were initially conceived as a cheap gift to slave states to get them to ratify our Constitution.
Trump can now brag that he’s even with her.
Kids got to be kids.
No matter, We are still a great nation that will make the only choice we have, and after perhaps we can finally ignore Trump in the corner masturbating.
Absolutely certain vs doubtful….“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure, while the intelligent are full of doubt.” Bertrand Russell
I get all of the crisis texts and emails. I don’t respond to any of them now. My credit card was compromised by one or another of my donations, so I won’t do any online contributions.
I’m of the mind that believes that the Republicans are so far from rational, it shouldn’t take a marketing genius to beat them. They shouldn’t need my money, if they have a brain. I have given to the Congressional Committee, the Senate Committee, the Harris Campaign, the Florida Senate candidate, and a handful of others. Other than that, the only thing I’ve done is talk to people.
Democrats… Don’t you realize that sending me an impassioned, hysteric email saying that I need to send in $3 (literally..!) or Kamela Harris is going to lose inspires contempt, not support…? That’s crazy talk. I totally support Harris but some of her fundraisers are idiots.
If fear is the Dems primary motivation tool- losing is likely. Republicans are much better at harnessing it. Caring- love- hope- can motivate turnout and belief- fear and hatred breed War and more fear
Trump is a public illusionist and, like Mr Pillow, sells a lot of even more safety and comfort to the safest most comfortable homo sapiens ever.
Not our finest hour.
I only contribute in person to a select number of candidates. Citizens United needs to be the second repeal, right after the electoral college, followed by reversing Roe and passing the John Lewis voting rights bill.
The influx of massive amounts of money by people like Musk, et al., enriches the oligarchs that own MSM in a feedback loop to keep the money and its power right in the same hands.
I have seen some t signs in the area, off the main streets, back in the wealthier parts of the northside. There are far fewer than last time and very low key. Shame?
I have family who are convinced that t is the messiah who will cure all human frailties. They forgive him anything because the end justifies the means. It is sickening to watch. He is a religion with all of the usual associated delusion that involves.
The election may take weeks or even months to resolve as t uses his army of lawyers (most of whom should be disbarred) to mount bogus challenges before compromised judges and EC delegates who decide to vote their personal ideology instead of the results of the voters’ decisions. We may not even know the outcome by January. Then what?
I’ve long said that I wanted someone to write a book about science, and someone else a book about medicine. They would have the titles, respectively, ‘Science – Oh! It’s more complicated than we thought!’ and ‘Medicine – Oh! It’s more complicated than we though!’. Looks like now I may need to add – Politics – Oh! It’s more complicated than I thought!’
I watched the movie Reagan last night. It is a decent movie, not great. But Reagan was an optimistic person with generally a light hearted approach. Much of the movie focused on his Cold War battles with Russia and he was decidedly anti-Russian. Why has the Republican Party become the “party of doom and gloom”? Why has it become so pessimistic and nasty? Why has it become so pro-Russian and so fond of dictators? I don’t know but it is probably more than Trump. The contrast between the Republicans of the 1980s and today’s Republicans is startling. The movie makes that clear.
I’m afraid Reagan’s light-heartedness and positive attitude came from realizing a life in politics where he could still ply his trade – acting – with much more success than in the movie business. His alignment with trickle-down economists put this country on a disastrous road to economic misery. I do agree it was way simpler then, politics I mean, and the two sides carried on much more respectably even while burdened by the usual often severe differences encountered today.
This isn’t in any way an election about policy, but it is in fact an election between policies on one hand and a bizarre obedience to a dark, unhinged cult figure. I can think of no other way to put it, and the one question I have is how that many folks – according to the polls at least, could possibly be willing to suspend their disbelief long enough to place their vote for the cult leader. I only hope to hell that the polls are way off and our great country is saved by the bell.
Perhaps it’s time for another op-ed from actor George Clooney?