Those of us who are obsessed with the upcoming election–now less than a month away–tend to focus on the the daily polling results. I have previously explained why I don’t think today’s polls are particularly predictive–while they can show which way the wind is blowing, I simply don’t trust their “likely voter” assessments. (As I’ve explained, all pollsters have developed methods for determining who is likely to vote–and their polls are almost always based upon the preferences of those “likely” voters–not the entire universe of registered voters.)
I feel reasonably confident that we will see a lot of votes cast by “unlikely” voters this time around.
But there is also something new–and dishonest–that has emerged in the polling during this election cycle, as Simon Rosenberg recently reported in his Hopium Chronicles. (Paywalled) He calls them “Red Wave Pollsters.”
Red Wave Pollsters Stepped Up Their Work This Week – The red wavers stepped up their activity this past week, releasing at least 20 polls across the battlegrounds. It’s a sign that they are worried about the public polling in both the Presidential and the Senate, and have dramatically escalated their efforts to push the polling averages to the right and make the election look redder than it is.
While they released polls in many states this week the states that have received the most red wave polls over the past few weeks are Montana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Over the past 10 days, depending on how you characterize the pollsters, they released at least 5 and as many 7 polls in Pennsylvania alone. Their recent flood of polls in NC and PA tipped the Real Clear Politics polling average for each state to Trump, which then in turn got Trump to 281 in their corrupt Electoral College map. Yes, in Real Clear Politics Trump is now winning the election due to their gamesmanship.
I now count 27 Republican or right-aligned entities in the polling averages: American Greatness, Daily Mail, co/efficent, Cygnal, Echelon, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Mitchell Communications, Napolitan Institute, Noble Predictive, On Message, Orbital Digital, Public Opinion Strategies, Quantus, Rasmussen, Redfield & Wilton, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, TIPP, Victory Insights, Wall Street Journal.
Rosenberg says it’s time for those who publish their analyses of polls to acknowledge the emergence of this type of poll , which he describes as “red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose – to move the polling averages to the right.”
They are exploiting the “toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy” of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages – and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages. It is what they did in 2022, and it worked. They are doing it again this time, and once again it is working as the averages are moving and everyone is treating this movement like an organic rather than a deeply corrupt process.
Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier of TargetSmart were the only two pollsters who predicted the non-emergence of the widely hyped “red wave” in the 2022 midterms–a wave that was widely forecast partly on the basis of voting history and partly on the basis of similar “red wave” polling.
Reputable pollsters face a number of daunting challenges–the shift from landlines to mobile phones, the reluctance of many (if not most) people to answer calls when they don’t recognize the number, evidence of the increasing willingness of respondents who do answer to lie… Despite those challenges, nearly all reputable pollsters find Harris ahead nationally by somewhere between 2 and 5 points. While I’m reluctant to rely on their numbers, I do think they demonstrate that the Democratic ticket has the momentum–that the electoral “wind” is blowing in the Harris/Walz direction.
What we do know with certainty is that this will be a turnout election. Early voting is open in most states right now, and the most effective thing we can do is vote early and work to make sure that every Blue voter we know gets to the polls. As the GOTV experts tell us, every solid Democratic vote that is cast early means that the GOTV effort can concentrate on getting those who are farther down the “reliable voter” list to the polls.
We’re down to the wire, and as the saying goes, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.
Voting early today and also a no on M. Massa ballot question.
If you are basing your vote on poll results; you are an uninformed voter. We see Trump and Vance’s speeches and we see Kamala an Tim’s; we see reports from Republicans who say they are anti-Trump but no way to know which way they will actually cast their votes. It is inbred in Republicans to vote for Republicans no matter who and no matter what they are spouting on any particular day…I grew up in a Republican family in a Republican neighborhood.
We have access to all forms of information at our fingertips on phones and computers today; use your information sources to base your vote on, not on opinions gathered randomly by others who want to prove their point of view. Sadly; this country can no longer count on daily newspapers or even local news reports for full information. Don’t limit your research to only the sources you agree with; check out the opposition from time to time to see their reporting on the opposition. One example I vividly remember is; after weeks of President Biden warning of Russia’s coming invasion of Ukraine, films of the actual invasion were being broadcast. I turned to Fox News and found a Nascar race; at other times I have found them reporting lies as facts which we had seen as they happened.
“We’re down to the wire, and as the saying goes, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.” But; this year we need to remember what transpired between 2020 election day and and the January 6, 2021 actual election results. This is a new world; one we were warned about but didn’t prepare for and Trump has promised he will again not accept this 2024 election results and there will be blood in the streets. That may be the only Truth we will ever hear from his mouth.
It has seemed to me that the polls are designed to discourage Democratic voters and campaign workers. Do not believe them, and do not be discouraged. I think this will be a landslide victory for Harris/Walz. I hope for some victories in the down-ballot races in Indiana.
It would be foolish to not prepare for the different possible outcomes. What would we want to see from a total victory of Dems? What would we do if it goes the other way? And what will we do if it is a mixed victory for Dems? It is now time to organize for success or for resistance.
We have the momentum, despite what the polls say, but it is prudent to prepare for the worst.
Now is the campaigning that counts most.
Much of the current wave of guesses is designed to attract eyeballs to screens, not voters to their polling places.
Remember, In all of primaries Trump polled 10% higher than he actually got. These right wing polls are just more of “flooding the zone with sh!t”. It just makes sure more people tune out and hopefully those people that tune out are on the right, so this could backfire for the right and energize people in the left.
One can hope the the dishonest efforts of “red wave” polls backfires, and motivates independent and Democratic voters (and Republican voters who understand the danger MAGA poses) to get out and vote a straight blue ticket.
At this point I have tuned out the election race. I know who I am voting for and will be at the CC Building today to vote. From now until election day I will enjoy the Fall, take in all that Halloween can offer here, and bake a couple of apple pies.
Enough is enough!
I am a big Nate Silver fan and have subscribed to his $ 10-a-month Silver Bulletin, and if you are a poll junkie like me, this is a worthwhile investment. In previous elections, Nate shot to fame when he published his New York Times article, Five-Thirty-Eight. In his Silver Bulletin, he does an excellent job of separating the signal from the noise in the polls and tells which are the most reliable, and they weigh them accordingly. Nate states that if he were playing poker (which I think he likes more than politics), he would like to have Kamala’s hand.
I agree with the two previous posters that these types of polls will backfire on the conspirators. R’s have a lock on 30% of the vote from MAGATs, and D’s have a 30% lock. Both parties are seeking Independent voters. I think polls showing Trump with a firm lead would motivate the anti-Trump Independents.
Does anybody remember who had a solid lead in the polls between Hillary and Donald in 2016?
A reputable poll in early summer showed that 80% of Americans supported Israel’s response against Hamas. After brief research, I found that the polling company was paid by AIPAC. You can hire pollsters to get the results you pay them for, and that ended my attention to all polls—even the ones that claim to be “independent and nonpartisan.”
By the way, Braun, Banks, and Spartz voted against funding FEMA two weeks ago, and Kamala wisely called them out. Several other Hoosier reps voted against the FEMA bill. Sadly, the Republicans in Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee also voted against the bill. Those who voted against it in the states impacted by Helene and Milton now demand approval of a new FEMA aid package. You can’t make this shit up! Conservative media is trying their best to cover Republican asses. None of them should be in Washington or Indianapolis:
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-republicans-voting-against-fema-1965493
Sheila cites the “reluctance of many (if not most) people to answer calls when they don’t recognize the number” as one of several factors facing pollsters. My research on polls, which started after the polls said that Nikki Haley was going to loose the Vermont Republican Primary by 5 points, but she actually wont it by 34 or 35 points, show that when pollsters make one hundred phone calls that find 11 to 15 people who will respond to their request to take a poll.
But more importantly, if the right can make it look like Trump is wining, he will point to that as proof that he one when he tries again to overturn the election.
I don’t think polls are even a little bit accurate. I spent a lot of time working with Health Services Researchers, who do a ton of surveys. I picked up a lot of information from them. I’m confident that I can recognize bias when I see it. Even the best polls have some bias although the better the pollster the less the bias.
Just saw Frank Luntz on MSNBC. He’s the master pollster who directed the GOP effort to get everyone on the same page in terms of responding to any question about Republican policies with “What about her emails?” Now he’s leading the, “I just don’t know much about her!” We only see the end result, we never see the preparatory information given to the focus group. We never know how the participants were chosen. There’s just not enough information to evaluate the result unless you are nerd enough to dive into it online and piece through it. It’s a slog. That’s why the pundits interviewing him don’t do it.
Re Todd’s comment about Rs voting against FEMA funding: I agree that right wing media will never reveal that Rs voted against FEMA funding. Unfortunately, their devoted watchers/listeners will not even take the time to research if what they are being told is the truth.
Project 2025 wants to eliminate FEMA, so those thumbs down Rs were dutifully obeying their oligarch masters.
We were discussing the election and mentioned the possibility that Trump would win. That in spite of the endless stream of lies he speaks and the total absence of lucid and reasonable policies – not those things he claims are policies, Trump would have convinced enough voters that he is the right person to lead the country. What does that tell us about our country? Where are we stranded? In the 1800’s, 1950’s?
Our discussion turned to where do we go if he wins? It seems that fewer countries are willing to take American refugees. What does that say about us?
We are living in an age when J.D. Putz can say “But wait, you were not supposed to be calling out my lies…to the entire country! I thought I was safe bullshitting everyone!”
So, the red side of the aisle freely lies just like the Russian Communists of old, you know, Those Reds.
Vote your backside off!
When I see polls favoring the opposition, I am more motivated to cast my ballot to signal that there is a significant opposition that must be dealt with should the poll be prophetic.
While my approach may be contrary to the majority of dems, my concern is that fake polls will bolster the certainty of naive (willing or not) that the election was stolen from Trump.
Fake Repub polls? Even more reason that independents need to vote so that the vote totals leave no credible doubt that Harris/Walz won.
May the last sound we hear from the crude dude be that of a broken man.
All polling has sucked since the days of caller ID, cell phones, Internet, and push-polling. Nobody knows anything from polling. It’s all just a wild-ass guess. The best thing any candidate can do is to show polls where they are losing. It will depress the opposition vote and encourage the supportive vote.
Biden took A nose dive when he proclaimed that he wouldn’t support a cease-fire immediately that he was leaving it up to Nanahu and that he was OK the huge bombs to annihilate more people in Gaza. I think he lost the young peoples confidence at that point so when Harris decided to jump into the race, and Biden decided to back off, there was elation and sugar high, but now she and her husband stand before the White House planting a pomegranate tree in memory of October 7 proclaiming that they will always stand firm on supporting and depending Israel, not a mention of the word supporting the people of Gaza or the Palestinians as if they don’t matter she’s made her choice loud and clear and the people who were leaving Biden for that very reason will do so with her. That’s my prediction and if my assessment is right she will begin to lose the young people, especially who are hard-pressed to see how anyone can be so insensitive. If our nation were older and could be more grandfatherly, and less biased… more like Solomon … seeing our role more as a peacemaker and less as a drug dealer at an addicts’ convention…
I see the writing on the wall I don’t think it takes a
Pollster to predict where we’ve let our values slide down the mud hole.
I ignore the polls, would love to see 538 blowout, as Silver said, this past week, that tfg will win.
What has me bothered now is an opinion piece that I read earlier today, about “Bro Culture” misogyny in Vance’s Ohio, and elsewhere; hairy man beliefs about how to be a man.