One of the dangers of even thoughtful policymaking is the possibility of unintended consequences; as I used to tell my students, even the best-intended legislative efforts can create unforeseen “spinoffs” that range from unfortunate to truly damaging. That’s why careful attention to policy details, consultation with people having expertise on the subject, and thorough review of available evidence are all so important.
So what happens when people in positions of authority are incapable of thoughtful policymaking and dismissive of evidence and expertise? We are about to face the consequences of policymaking by ignorant egomaniacs, and Paul Krugman has identified some of the most obvious.
Krugman notes that the new PM of Canada has ordered a review of that country’s plan to buy a substantial number of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, joining European nations that are similarly reconsidering their dependence on U.S. weapons.
This turn away from military dependence on the U.S. is understandable. America is no longer a reliable ally to the world’s democracies; indeed, between Trump’s turn toward Putin and his talk of annexing Canada and Greenland, we don’t look like an ally at all. Rumors that U.S. jets have a “kill switch” that would allow Trump to disable them at will are probably false, but sophisticated military equipment requires a lot of technical support, so you don’t want to buy it from a country you don’t trust.
He then considered several other emerging responses to the chaos being caused by our mad kings, pointing out that a nation “that can’t be trusted to honor agreements or follow the rule of law has to have monetary as well as political and diplomatic consequences.”
Several of those monetary consequences will be very damaging. Krugman says he’s been exploring the available data, and “U.S. exposure to foreign revulsion looks quite large.”
Military hardware isn’t the only export likely to suffer from our new rogue nation status. Our trade deficit in goods is partly offset by a surplus in services trade, but several of our major service exports will definitely be hurt by America’s turn to the dark side.
One of these is education. Many foreigners come to America to study, attracted by the quality of our colleges and universities. In 2023, the most recent year for which data are available, they spent more than $50 billion. But if you were a foreigner considering study in the U.S. next year, wouldn’t you be worried that you might find yourself arrested and deported for expressing what the current administration considers anti-American views? I would. So we can expect a hit to higher education, which, although we rarely think of it this way, is a major U.S. export.
Personal travel — basically tourism — was even bigger, more than $100 billion. But you can be sure that we’ll be seeing a lot fewer Canadians this year and next. And it won’t just be Canadians reconsidering their plans.
Media is already reporting cratering European tourism.
Krugman admits that he’s much more worried about Trump’s threat to our democracy than his bad economic policies. He also notes that– even in purely economic terms–the self-inflicted damage from tariffs and deportations is likely to outweigh the costs caused by other countries’ loss of trust in the United States. That said, those costs are real.
One way to think about this is to say that Trump is doing to America what Elon Musk is doing to Tesla, destroying a valuable brand through erratic behavior and repulsive ideology. Did I mention that Tesla sales in Europe appear to be cratering?
True, there are differences between a private business and a nation-state. I don’t think people visiting Tesla showrooms are subject to random arrest, or that Musk will kill your car if you say something he doesn’t like (although to be honest I’m not entirely sure on either count, especially since Musk seems to be running much of the government.) On the other hand, Tesla depends a lot more on buyer goodwill than the United States as a whole does.
Still, Trump’s belief that America holds all the cards, that the rest of the world needs access to our markets but we don’t need them, is all wrong. We are rapidly losing the world’s trust, and part of the cost will be financial.
I think it’s unlikely that either of our mad megalomaniacs considers the probable or improbable consequences of their actions. The hard core of MAGA cultists will refuse to acknowledge even the outcomes that negatively affect them (and the data suggests that Red states will likely bear the brunt).
We can only hope that a sufficient number of “softer” Trump supporters will realize that the costs of voting their racism have become too high.
“That’s why careful attention to policy details, consultation with people having expertise on the subject, and thorough review of available evidence are all so important.”
Late yesterday I posted on Facebook’s What’s on your mind? “ANTI-DEI=SOUTH AFTRICAN APARTHEID EXTENDED”; so far no comments. Trump carefully picked his pet South African to head up DOGE to weed out the thousands who, in their view, needed to be fired from government jobs to run this country more effectively…in his opinion. But, like Trump’s deporting hundreds of immigrants, it has been an “across the board” action rather than selection of those who warranted firing or deportation. Trump doesn’t realize that the way this country was being run under democracy, Rule of Law and upholding the Constitution of the United States of America was what made us the world leader the past 80 years or so. We have already lost that position and our allies are quickly moving away from being connected to this country on any level.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Trump and Musk on hell-bent on breaking this country and rebuilding it to their satisfaction. ” I think it’s unlikely that either of our mad megalomaniacs considers the probable or improbable consequences of their actions.” They do not care about consequences as long as their rousing cries of removing DEIs and Woke from power is working they will carry on with the help of the courts who tremble at the thought of fully confronting either or both of them.
They have so far, in TWO MONTHS TIME, effectively reached their Intended Consequences of terrorizing the American public, including their own voters, who are just now beginning to see what they won with this election.
“We can only hope that a sufficient number of “softer” Trump supporters will realize that the costs of voting their racism have become too high.”
I had heard just the other day that the tourism forecast for foreign tours visiting the US went from an expected 9% increase this year to a 5% decrease this year. This is a multibillion dollar hit to the United States economy.
Who are the “softer Trump supporters”? Are they the ones saying, “that’s not what I voted for?” Are they kidding? The administration is doing exactly what they said they would do. Yeah, I know, the price of eggs was the only thing they cared about. I’d like to ask how they would feel if the cost of eggs came down and the danger of contracting bird flu rose inversely?
I remember a time when we spoke of unimportant things like, “the common good”. It was the reason we all got vaccinated. It’s the reason we did medical research. It’s the reason people joined the armed forces. It’s the reason our taxes paid for schools. It’s the reason we paid for frivolous things like arts and music programs.
Today, in the free state of Florida, as in our national policies, everything that used to be done for the common good is a choice for “free” people. Now we are free to kill our children and our neighbors’ children by not having the kids vaccinated for measles or for anything else.
I realize I sound a little crazy this morning, but you can feel free to tell me what I’ve gotten wrong.
Trump telling our allies that we sell them “inferior goods” because “tomorrow they might not be our allies” is grossly irresponsible whether it’s true or not. And yes, the MIC is probably screaming mad about it. However, Europe’s ability to buy our expensive state-of-the-art weaponry is another subject because they have had the luxury of the US paying for their defense since WW2. If a future US leader would do the same to Israel, they, too, would be in a financial upheaval.
These are the short-sighted decisions of Trump and Musk. Poor Elon is crying about his Tesla brand and the “libruls” blowing up his cars and dealerships. He should have realized there would be repercussions since he was not elected to take an axe to our federal government. How else could the people tell him they disapproved?
For the record, the US uses both nonviolence and violence in their coups across the globe. Therefore, when US citizens use a combination of violence and passive protests, they shouldn’t be surprised. The masses must break free of their chains and stand up to the oligarchy all across the spectrum. If the “right and left” ever figured out they were both being conned, the oligarchy would be boarding one of Musk’s spaceships heading for the moon. LOL
If you look at our Constitution, you will see that our Founders feared an upheaval of the common people. That’s why they designed a constitutional republic instead of a pure democracy. If the people figure out their power, the oligarchy will end very soon.
This is why I was somewhat happy for Harris to lose. Trump’s ignorance has accelerated the process tenfold, and we’re only a few months into his term. Musk has been a huge help in waking up the masses.
As for what’s happening now in Washington, you can expect retaliatory efforts from other countries. When they do, Trump will reciprocate. It’s like a high school resentment. Unfortunately, this is how wars start, too.
MTV (Musk, Trump, Vance, Johnson, Roberts) are tearing a successful enterprise, a nation-state, apart, piece by piece, to privatize each part by “selling” it to oligarchs/friends, by destroying necessary government services so equally ruthless friends can eventually backfill the service for profit.
I met a gentleman in the seat next to me on my flight to Florida. He told me he profits through bankruptcy, divorce, and death by managing auctions to redistribute assets to the highest bidder.
That’s the perfect metaphor for what will be the eulogy for the formerly united States of Mid North America, the world’s next third world country.
The Putin Model.
Great comments this morning. Have any of others become as physically tired as I have from the daily onslaught of destruction being carried out by musk/trump with close to zero pushback from the spineless self-serving republican politicians in DC?
Nancy. Physically tired and mad as hell!
For anyone who attended the People’s Town Hall in Indy Saturday. I went to Wednesday’s event but couldn’t go Saturday. Any feedback from it? Was it taped and, if so, is there a way to watch it?
No Peggy, you’ve not gotten it wrong. In Florididia we are “free” to be as imbecilic as we can be…as long as it is imbecilic in a way that DeGov’r likes.
Consequences are not things that the fools in charge ever seem to consider. They appear to have no idea that everything is connected to everything else, especially the Orange one, who thinks that everything revolves around him. He probably never heard of Copernicus!
Trump/Musk aren’t interested in doing what’s best for the country. Trump is interested only in nursing his lifelong grievances and getting revenge on his perceived enemies. Musk wants to grab as much power and money as he can get away with.
I think many of the people who voted for Trump cared less about the price of eggs and more about “owning the libs” and beating up on transgender people and brown-skinned immigrants. Trump voters see government as an instrument to viciously attack those whom they dislike. They are even willing to sacrifice their own wellbeing to achieve this end. I’m sure they would not tell pollsters this.
Carolyn – re this sentence in your comment “They are even willing to sacrifice their own wellbeing to achieve this end.”
I live among them in a very rural north Indiana county and their willful ignorance is exhausting. I’ll be watching for their reactions when heir trump’s government slashing eventually affects them.
We are All waiting for the effects on them.
problem, whenever it affects him, he backs off & attacks in a different area.
& ups the hate filled propaganda.
Nancy – there is also little push back from the spineless Democrats who look like deer in the headlights. I am so disappointed in them and sick of getting twenty texts a day asking for my money and telling me I must be a Republican if I don’t answer. There are a million and one things that should be screamed from the roof tops now and all I hear are…crickets…
I watched the video of the UMC Broadway Empty Chair townhall for Todd Young. Later when I tried to revisit the video it had been edited much to my disappointment. I have looked on YouTube for the Saturday meeting but have not found it. It’s driving me crazy that journalism is editing what’s really going on to make a boring sound bite that nobody cares about. You have to be at a protest or see a full unedited version of a video to know all that has gone on. People are scared, people are pist off, and some people are motivated to do what they can.