Is The GOP Outsmarting Itself?

I know…”smart” isn’t a word that applies to today’s Republican Party, so “outsmarting” may be a misnomer. And while I don’t know the situation in Texas, there are reasons to think that efforts to further redistrict–further gerrymander–Indiana might well fall into the category of “be careful what you wish for.”

In Indiana’s last, highly partisan redistricting, it was notable that the GOP super-majority did not increase the number of presumably safe seats. In a conversation with a political science colleague, he explained that he saw that decision as a consequence of the fact that the pickings in rural Indiana are getting thin. Like many states, Indiana’s rural precincts are emptying out, so there just weren’t as many reliable Republican voters to constitute safe margins if additional districts were carved out.

The most important effect of gerrymandering, as I have frequently noted, is voter suppression. People in districts that are presumed safe for either party are less likely to vote. They are especially unlikely to cast a ballot if they favor the “loser” party, and more especially if the loser party fails to run a candidate. (There is actually data suggesting that, if turnout were more robust, many supposedly safe districts wouldn’t be safe.)

Trump’s approval ratings are abysmal–even his base of MAGA morons is showing signs of splintering. There is overwhelming data showing that, in midterms, when a President isn’t on the ballot, partisan True Believers are significantly less likely to vote. Even if Indiana simply keeps its current, extremely gerrymandered map, a decent turnout could deliver an unwelcome surprise to the Republican pooh-bas who think the state owes them their electoral positions.

The challenge to Hoosier Democrats is clear: boost turnout. Put every resource you can muster into GOTV–getting out the vote. That means running a candidate in every district, so that people have someone to vote for, and focusing messaging on the fact that a large number of so-called “safe” districts are only safe when Democrats and disaffected Republicans stay home.

And start now.

22 Comments

  1. Democracy itself is at risk of failure if people don’t vote. Remember, the president is 5 levels away from your wallet. Your local politicians are only 1 or 2 levels away.

  2. With Vance coming to Indiana and pulling in those with knowledge of the Epstein Coverup, I read this Shakespearan quote:

    “Yon Cassius has a lean and hungry look.
    He thinks too much. Such men are dangerous . . .
    Such men as he be never at heart’s ease
    Whiles they behold a greater than themselves,
    And therefore are they very dangerous.”

    I’ve read many a Democratic Party “leader” claim they can run on “we’re not MAGA!” Guess what?

    That is uniparty bullshit! Not being Trump will attract nobody to the polls in Indiana or elsewhere. If the Democrats run on this reactionary stable of defending immigrants and gays, they will lose again across the broad spectrum of people across the USA. That literally attracts nobody!

    I’ve heard rumblings that the Democratic Party is being challenged from within. Seniors like Chuck Schumer need to go. I’ve listened to younger voices that are very appealing. There is a Texas Democrat I’ve heard soundbites of, and he is the future of the party. Pete Buttigieg, who was told to yield to his senior Biden, is starting to be more vocal.

    The Oligarchic puppets want to run on just reactionary tales of not being Trump, and that will attract nobody. Vern always points out the voters who stayed home in 2024. Kamala Harris was a joke and brought absolutely nothing to the table. I can remember Obama’s speech after he won in 2008 and sold out Democratic voters that incrementalism is what the Democrats must work toward. What bullshit!!

    Clinton did the same thing. I remember her in 2016 claiming she was a progressive but a realist, and that young people need to accept baby steps or, once again, incrementalism. That is uniparty bullshit!! The whole reactionary, “I’m not MAGA” campaign is a sure loser. People will stay home and let Trump destroy our government because it doesn’t offer anything for them. How many white American voters know an immigrant being deported or a transgender person being discriminated against? I suspect that number is minimal. Will they get off the couch and go vote?

    Young educated persons are about to get slaughtered by student debt. Older Americans are getting pummelled by healthcare expenses. Billionaires run the show, and every POTUS seems committed to making them richer by taking from the middle class and the poor.

    Endless war? Cut the budget in half and announce that all military bases abroad will be closed, troops brought back to America, and the focus will be only on defense.

    Universal healthcare, cancelling all student debt, shutting down military operations overseas, and being a leader in climate change should be the main pillars of the Democratic Party in 2026 and 2028. You know, focus on the people for once. Start taxing and closing loopholes for the obscenely rich. If they move their money overseas, sanction it. These AI data centers should be forced to build new energy plants wherever they are located instead of giving them free energy and forcing everyone else to pay higher utility bills.

    It’s time to get aggressive and work for the people, and they will show up at the polls. If the Democrats play the passive, “We’re not MAGA” game, we’ll know the uniparty is real and a scam. Americans will stay home on Election Day. That will make the oligarchy happy…

  3. Todd, Maybe you should become an active member of the DNC and offer your advice. Right now, the DNC, as you say, are running around like scalded cats and not creating a winning platform.

    But where do they begin? We’ll NEVER close our foreign military bases. The MIC has large employment in virtually EVERY state. But running on democracy and the Constitution might be a good start. Trump destroys himself every time he opens that sewer he calls a mouth.

    Don’t forget the movement to overturn Citizens United and the Electoral College. Democrats should QUANTIFY how those two things impact voters. QUANTIFY how Republicans are screwing the farmers and rural folks. Closing hospitals and clinics? Really?

    Project 2025 is the real enemy of democracy. Attack it every day. Gerrymandering must be combatted, of course, but it is just a game Republicans play because they know they can only fool so many people at any given time. Seen the town halls lately?

    So, yes, voting is critical, necessary and vital to our nation’s survival.

  4. Trump and The Republicans play on Fears not Facts
    Democrats- often play on “foolish naive almost facts”
    Non-privileged People – “choose” often by Not Voting
    Where you believe in the potential of the Democrats- work to reform them, where Not – Third Party and/or – Organize Outside- Plan, Listen- Connect- Will there be 2026 Elections? Don’t presume yes nor presume No- Work With Your “Neighbors “- Ally with Others- My Black Partner may flee the U.S. with her 2 children who are Not Safe- having growing Breasts- hormones- not Cosmetic Surgery- and Being Black! Don’t know where I’ll be- am 74- care about my 7 year old granddaughter- though my 38 year old son seems to feel Safe- he earns a lot- little curiosity- beyond performative. “Caring “ Challenging yes but I’m both not Facing Starvation (Gaza) nor looking at a (figurative) return to Legalized Racism as my Black Family faces!

  5. Agree. I’ve been saying this. I don’t see the Democratic party out trying to get people motivated. Door To Door. Talk to people’s actual faces. If everyone that turns out to vote all vote the same way, gerrymandering doesn’t matter. Run on working to fix money in politics, lobbiests, finish the infrastructure, reign in corporations that are trodding all over us. They aren’t people too.

  6. Vern, I would love to, but as with the local Democratic Party, I was told to be a realist. The Ball family has run East Central Indiana with the Lilly family since our inception. When I wrote articles about the Ball family’s treatment of blacks (the truth versus their paid history from Ball State students), I was blackballed by every organization in Muncie. My goal was to get a Master’s Degree and teach at Ivy Tech, but I never received a single interview. I was told I had a position in the Entrepreneur department at Ball State, but it was cancelled by one of the loyal sycophantic Ball professors. The loyal ass kissers get a Ball family endorsement.

    Through the millions donated to organizations, most of the entities received money for marketing in the local Gannett newspaper (rag). The Ball family even donated space for the Gannett newspaper. It still couldn’t survive in our community because, like Indianapolis, it printed bullshit.

    Eli Lilly does the same thing in Indianapolis. I quickly learned it’s the same in every community across the country. How about the Coors family in Colorado? The Ball descendants have set up nonprofits to funnel money to the Chamber and other organizations to control the whole community. Once I wrote about that, I was completely shut out of local employment. A Ball State professor told me that I had chosen the wrong path. I should be bitter, but I find it amusing more than anything. They don’t want independent thinkers – they want sycophants.

    When I ran for City Council, I proposed to assess a PILOT against Ball State and Ball Hospital, both of which were in my district. Ball State acquired more and more property, and used plenty of public services, but paid NOTHING to our local government. Our Republican Mayor just stole money from our opioid addiction settlement to pay for police and fire raises because there is a lack of money. They also passed a tax abatement to an entity owned by Hilton Hotels, which is building a hotel at Ball State. Why in the world does a multi-billion-dollar company need a tax abatement when the city can’t pay for police and fire?

    With Trump’s cuts and the state’s shift, I expect we will soon be seeing an increase in local taxes. It’s all part of the oligarchs extracting money for themselves. It’s the trickle-up reality!

  7. Agreed. And I have loved past leaders – like Obama – and current ones who, in another “normal” time would surely fit the bill for me, but now is not that time and as far as I can see we have to stop being nice and fight! Who is doing that right now? Gavin Newsome, who, by the way, runs the 4th biggest economy IN THE WORLD. He understands things, and one of those things is the Constitution of the United States of America. I’m open to others willing to fight like hell, maybe ones not as slick as Gavin (although I’m willing to overlook that) but anyone with the guts to duke it out to bring our great country back to its aspirational self. He is. Bring it on!!!!

  8. Project 2025 is a carefully considered long-term strategy to change the country from our liberal democratic traditions to an extreme right-wing oligarchy. That’s the competition.

    Republicans are no longer a political party but the manifestation of something sinister, a cult named MAGA.

    Trump is a clown entertaining the public, while the brain behind MAGA is Stephen Miller.

    This is our offering to counter Project 2025. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/2024-Democratic-Party-Platform.pdf

    The country is sagging under the brutal assault on the Constitution, especially the Bill of Rights, by MAGA.

    That’s what’s real here and now. Does the DNC offering include everything necessary to rebuild what is being lost for the second half of this century, and is it sufficient to sell our product to the public?

    We each have opinions about that, and that discussion needs to replace the entertainment-focused daily shenanigans of the DC Clown dancing before our eyes.

    Don’t take your eyes off the ball.

  9. There is no question that GOTV is key, but to me suitable candidates are also one of the most important missing pieces of the puzzle.
    As I see it, the biggest problem we continue to face in ruby red Indiana and other realms as well, is the lack of enough inspiring, sincere, and captivating candidates that are truly dedicated to being “stewards” of a people’s democracy. Unfortunately, in Indiana and many other red places they also have to be electable.
    I have never seen a more promising candidate than Kamala Harris. I even have one of her “Kamala Harris For The People” shirts from a several election cycles ago. I don’t know that it is true, but it seemed that she genuinely had our interests deep within her heart. The problem seems to have been that she is a black woman of mixed “others” heritage, which just won’t play well in Indiana no matter how evil that truth is. She could not have been more articulate, joyful, positive and experienced than she is. But she lost. Why was that? I don’t think it was because she campaigned on what might have been conceived as socialist give aways. Shamefully, I think it was because she was a black woman. As a white male, I am ashamed of and depressed by that.
    But we are in a time when our democracy has become an authoritarian state with federal troops and the FBI in blue cities and have a POTUS that has committed an incredible number of impeachable offenses against Americans and and our former democracy. I rarely even hear the word “impeach”. Most likely, because thanks to a hideous Unites States House of Representatives and Senate, impeachment is not possible.
    My daughter is incredibly afraid that she, her significant other who is of 100% Mexican heritage and our grandchildren that are of 50% Mexican heritage will get caught up in this Tump-DHS-ICE insanity as have others that shouldn’t even have a little worry about their citizenship.
    Although I like her, Valerie McCray will not be elected to the United States Senate in Indiana. Although I like him, the guy I saw speaking at the Good Trouble John Lewis Statehouse demonstration (I have been to most every large scale demonstration and even the gathering along Meridian in front of the governor’s residence) will most likely be a very tough sell as a Bernie Socialist Democrat in the 5th District.
    We need the right candidates that, with our help, are truly electable and will GOTV that helps rid us of the Trump, MAGA , White Christian Nationalist, Project 2025, GOP darkness and we need them NOW. I wish I wasn’t an old guy that has difficulty thinking on his feet but that is reality. I can’t run for office. I can only hold up signs. I wish I had signs supporting a Kamala Harris-type candidate for office that can win in Indiana and that we would be hearing them shouting from the rooftops RIGHT NOW.

  10. The Texas Democrat is the Democrats answer to the Evangelicals. He is amazing!!! His name is James Talarico and I really urge folks to look him up. He is a devout Christian and he takes on the Evangelicals and runs loops around them.

    David Hogg is correct when he says that some of these ‘safe’ Democrats are not doing enough for the party and they still do not understand the real peril this county is in — Schumer has yet to grasp it.

    The one thing I remember as a youngster and I have a 17 year old daughter is hypocrisy. Young people hate hypocrisy–it maybe the first emotion and the first thing that is noted as they ‘come of age’. They see the older ‘elite’ Democrats as cut from the same cloth except for Bernie, they love Bernie and Bernie would have won. Many were pissed when the DNC in their infamous ‘they think they know best’ mantra forced him out and forced Hillary Clinton on us. She is qualified beyond measure but hated. Living in Indiana many I spoke with were either going to vote for Bernie or Trump because a Clinton was not an option.

  11. When reading the comments here this morning, I am struck by how deep the misogyny is in this country. We in Indiana had a highly qualified and personable candidate for governor in Jennifer McCormick. She was an experienced administrator from a rural county with the chops to do the job, BUT she was a woman. In Indiana that meant that she was by definition unqualified, according to the voters who gave the state to MAGA in the form of a dump clone.
    Listen to the voices of Beckwith and Hegseth and you will hear to echos of what is being fed to evangelical congregations all over the country. Submit to white Christian men. And women are doing so. They have been so indoctrinated with the patriarchy of religions that they believe the lies they are told to control them.
    I am sick at what has happened in D.C. It is a soft coup. And, once again, I remind myself that he is not doing this my himself. There are huge numbers of people, men especially, who are more than willing to renounce their oath to the Constitution for money, power or out of fear of loss of status or control. They are the true traitors to our grand experiment.
    Coming to a city near you soon….

  12. JD–its true. The misogyny is dreadful and you picked up my grievance growing up in the Bible belt. I moved from Indiana to Tennessee and while there are a ton of similarities–the ‘Trad wife’ is very much worshipped in these parts. I have two Bachelor’s and Master’s and was told straight up that this is an issue for me–educated woman. Initially, I thought those who gave me warnings were full of it but they are not. I also blame the types of churches the proliferate the area.

    I recall when it was either Obama or Hillary and my question to America was which was hated more–a black man or a woman. I told my daughter that we need to find colleges in blue states or a heavy dark purple.

  13. A good friend invited me to a meeting of the Progressive Democrats of America on Sunday. The topic was getting an amendment to the Constitution to make it clear that Corporations are NOT persons under the Constitution, and that Money is not protected speech as defined in the first amendment.

    Definitely something that NEEDS to happen, but right now has a snowball’s chance in hell of actually happening. Sorry folks; this is Don Quixote tilting at windmills!

    The wolf is at the door and the house is on fire. Project 2025 is in full assault on our beloved Government and established society. WE need to form an old fashioned bucket brigade to put out the fire. Collectively we can do this. Individually we are helpless. The entire MAGA attack strategy is to keep us separated so that we don’t unify to defend ourselves.

    The Democrat Party strategy needs to be:
    Analyze Project 2025 – Point out to people the ideas that are being implemented and how they are hurting real people; i.e. our families, friends and neighbors. Make it personal.
    Full Stop!

    Don’t try to make it complicated! People will vote if they are being personally hurt. They are being hurt, but the Republican’s are doing everything they possibly can to hide the fact. Turn on the lights and make the Republican’s defend their cruelty in the light of day.

    Example: Women know that the overturning of Roe is an outright assault on their right to control their own bodies. Many are actively planning to vote against Republicans on this issue. How many of you ladies are aware that the Republicans are attempting to take away your right to vote them out of office? It’s called the SAVE Act and it requires that you present your birth certificate to register to vote, and stipulates that if the name on said certificate does not match with your current ID, then you are denied registration. Very subtle since most women have traditionally adopted their husband’s name when they married. You need to get outraged over this because it is even more insideous than the attack on Roe.

  14. The MAGA Instagram blogger Charlie Kirk, a real manga acolyte, said that there needs to be troops including tanks in every major city in the United States. He extoled, let the tanks roll. Judging by his Instagram Page, he’s nuttier than Carlson! Wing nut folk seem not to realize, that once there is a military presence throughout the country, it doesn’t matter what your belief is, your goose is cooked.

    So my question is, who’s going stand up for the Constitution which prohibits such action? You can’t say you are going back to the original thought process of the founders, when you absolutely are diametrically opposed to what’s written in the Constitution. But the supreme Court has already showed their hand, which was the final nail in the coffin. And the whole time they were working on the supreme Court, refusing appointments by Democrat presidents, The DNC stood around like they were gobsmacked. No coherent action, no lawsuits, just shoulder shrugs. I mean if you were deaf and blind you could have seen what the future was going to be, many of us did, many of us wrote about it, and still, here we are! There’s something to be said about using discernment and foresight concerning the he patterns of chicanery by the wing nuts. If you can’t use the gift of your brain, then you might as well crawl into that hole covered by a rock. Garden slugs have more sense than what the DNC has allowed without even a whimper.

    When a barn is on fire, you try and at least open the door so the mules can flee! Not stand there ringing your hands while the mules are screaming as they’re being burned to death. Well, there’s a lot of barns burning, and there’s lots of mules being roasted.

    And when they’re done roasting the mules, they’ll start with the rhinos, and after that, the elephants. And all of this under the guise of some sort of Christian movement which is laughable!

    They want to separate children from their parents, and what do you think is happening to those children? They don’t want those children in the country, and some of these children are toddlers or younger. So where are they? And his previous stint in office, that was a big deal, what happened to the kids? They claimed they couldn’t find their parents. What happened to them? These kind of individuals are pedophiliac reprobates, and just like the chief honcho reprobate, he feels untouchable. He hung out with pedophiles, anyone that’s been involved and that sort of depravity, the long list of it, incest was not off the books, that’s fairly obvious, and statutory rape, sexual assault, bigotry, and one of the favorite Nazi pastimes, the occult! And yes, many in this administration are very dedicated to esotericism. They Believe the few have the knowledge and the right to control the many. Because somehow they have the otherworldly connections that they control.

    And judging by how this country has gotten to where it is right now, maybe esoteric occultists found a way to channel immense malevolence, becoming godlike in their own minds. We can actually see DT believing that he has some sort of godlike ability. When there is malevolence that is being extolled out in the open, everyone better hope there’s a higher power besides the simpletons that stood around twiddling their thumbs when this was happening.

  15. Comments here telling us that we have to get people to vote doesn’t work everywhere – especially in very rural Indiana where I live. It will take D candidates in more urban areas to have a chance at being elected. I’ve been very active with the local party, but we keep fighting an uphill battle that keeps becoming even more steep.

    Lately I frequently wonder what it would be like to live in a blue state and just might consider moving. Young college graduates don’t stay in this state for very valid reasons. The grass is much greener and nicer in far too many places – especially for women. There are much better employment opportunities elsewhere. Our state legislature continuously makes it abundantly clear that they only care about white faux christian males in addition to maintaining their personal positions of political power in the legislature. Personally, I can’t find any reason to encourage young people to stay here.

  16. Nancy, we are called “fly over country” for a reason. When your district is flat and surrounded by corn or soybean fields, you have to make yourself exceptional. Indiana has always done the opposite. I moved to Orlando/Miami to get away from this mindset. My classmates from 45 years ago are still the same. I am attending my reunion for the first time in 25 years this year.

    When you are surrounded by states that allow legal marijuana, you need to join the crowd quickly. Most of the people I know are flocking to those states where cannabis is legal. Indiana used to be a frontier state where hunting and fishing were a significant draw. Because of Mitch Daniels, who allowed the worst of the worst CAFO operators to flock to Indiana, nearly every single waterway is polluted. Because of the four super coal-burning plants, there is a limit on the number of fish you can eat caught in the rivers (Mercury).

    Letting our air, water, and land get polluted seems extremely strange for a so-called “conservative state.”

    It’s taken years of propaganda to normalize profit over people and land. Trump is even applauded for selling our naturally protected lands to Oil Barons and mineral extractors who will extract resources and dump the waste into the surrounding land. You would think hunters and fishermen would go nuts over this, but they cheer it on ignorantly…”owning the libs!”

  17. People have asked over and over why OJ (I’m sure that the commenters know to whom I refer) had to send in the Guard and the Marines to LA. I’ve been saying that he was testing how far he could go, before people reacted negatively, but there is another reason for it and that is to get the people used to the presence of armed Military in public.

  18. Todd, I had long forgotten that mitch daniels brought in the cafo operators. Are you referring to the men from the Netherlands, etc that have created massive dairies and polluted the creeks and streams?

    Ever since tRump’s 2nd election I’ve become worn out and mostly hopeless. I can’t envision anything good over the next 3 years – only more horrible things. Apparently, more bad things that will affect average citizens is what it will take for the lazy mindless magats to wake up. My only hope is when they do wake up they will utilize their massive stashes of weapons to send the evil R politicians running for their lives. I don’t think trump or anyone else in power will be able to convince military or national guard members to battle the angry civilian magats because too many of them are magats themselves.

    Forty years ago I predicted a revolution against the government would take place in our country. Back then I thought it was only 15-20 years away. tRump and his evil P2025 buddies may end up paying a huge price for reverting this country back to the days of slavery. The only difference will be that most will be white.

    Someone made a comment earlier that they didn’t know if the Dem party’s worst mistake was getting a black man elected as President of if it was choosing Hillary Clinton as a candidate. Locally, the problem was putting a black man in the white house. There were white lifelong factory working UAW member Democrats that switched to the R party after that. How dare the Dem party support the election of an educated black man to the most powerful position in our country!

  19. Everytime I think of Trump I think of the Joker with his band of thugs. Some just want to see the world burn.

  20. Yep Suzanne,
    This is a fact, there are fish actually exploding because the water is becoming too hot. Their ballast organs can’t handle the heat.

  21. I love this blog. Back living in Indiana – Muncie, actually – it gives me hope. However, I have yet to decide if our Indiana Democrats are as feckless as they have always been. John Mellencamp is pertinent here: Stand for something or fall for everything. I am trying to find some way to put my money where my mouth is, but it is hard to get started.

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