In a recent Substack, Paul Krugman shared a transcript of his interview/conversation with Erica Chenoweth, author of Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know. During Trump’s second term, Chenowith, a Harvard professor, has become well-known for her studies of resistance to autocracies across the globe–especially her conclusion that peaceful civil protest by 3.5% of a country’s population is usually effective in overcoming an autocratic regime.
Krugman’s first question is one most of us would ask: do protests like No Kings really matter? As Chenoweth noted, that question is slightly different from the question whether civil resistance matters.
On the protest side, just immediately speaking, there are a lot of papers about this. There are papers in my discipline (political science and sociology and econ) even about trying to understand the impacts of even a single day of protest and widespread participation, and a single day of protest on things like shifts in public opinion, changes in policy, shifts in election turnout for particular parties, the tendency for people to run for office, all kinds of reforms.
I think the general answer is that, on a number of dimensions, even a single day of protests with very widespread participation can often lead to shifts and those different outcomes, even if there’s sometimes modest shifts in places like the United States where a modest shift in voter turnout can actually be quite decisive because of the nature of our voting rules. “First past the post,” that means elections can be completely changed by small margins. So it’s easy to overstate the impact that a single day of protest can have. But it’s also easy to underestimate it, given where the scholarship is on this topic.
Chenoweth then turned to the “slightly different” question of civic resistance, which she explained is a broader phenomenon than protest, involving more sustained levels of nonviolent mobilization and organization. It extends beyond protests to other methods of non-cooperation like strikes and boycotts.
Chenoweth noted that, in the 20th century, these tactics initiated democratic breakthroughs in Poland, the Philippines, Serbia, Brazil, and Argentina, and prompted the Arab awakenings of the early 2010.
Krugman and Chenoweth returned to the impact of the recent No Kings protests; Krugman observed that those events weren’t simply peaceful–they were joyful, and the festive atmosphere arguably attracted more participants, while the act of participating encouraged a belief in the possibility of change.
Chenoweth agreed, citing studies on the impact of participation in the civil rights movement on those who participated. Engagement in those protests gave rise to a belief that the situation could be changed–not only that each individual should do something to effectuate that change, but more importantly, that individuals could do something to change it. Once that recognition dawns, “there’s no going back to the previous status quo where it felt like the situation was permanent, only going to get worse, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”
The No Kings mass resistance also accompanied other defections: Chenoweth cited incidents of prominent people resigning– or refusing to resign and forcing the administration to fire them; the archbishop of Chicago releasing a statement calling the administration’s policy toward immigrants intolerable; the Chamber of Commerce suing the Trump administration over its H-1b policy (on the basis of it being unconstitutional, not just on the basis of it being harmful for their industries); the multiple airports refusing to run Kristi Noem’s TSA commercial. These are all examples of non-cooperation. Krugman added the example of universities refusing to sign the administration’s “compact.”
The preparation that went into the No Kings protests–preparation that worked to ensure that they would be non-violent–was important. As Chenoweth put it,
The more representative the crowd is of the general population, the more likely it is to have non-escalatory impacts with police or with bystanders or anything else. Part of that is just because it’s very clear to all who are observing it, that these are folks from every walk of life, regardless of what the GOP wants to say about these people, they’re plainly peaceful protesters, some of them engaging for the first time in a political protest in their life…That’s the needle that civil resistance campaigns thread, which is to say they’re able to convey a political threat without threatening people and property around them.
Chenoweth says we are experiencing something new to the U.S.–authoritarianism has captured federal power. We the People must strengthen the civil society response, uphold the institutions that need upholding, and “renew and improve the institutions that need renewal and improvement without bloodshed. I truly believe that we have the capacity to do that.”
I hope she’s right.
Start by holding Mike Johnson accountable for shutting down the House. How are his constituents taking his actions? When 7 million protestors are discounted as Antifa, America-haters and more, the next protest has to be double and it is time for a million person march on Washington DC. Elected representatives are showing no respect, just disdain for pushback. Stop blaming the Dems who need to pay for some ads as to WHY they won’t vote for the GOP bill.
According to my research, approximately 14 million Americans are expected to be negatively impacted in 2026 when their ACA premiums increase by anywhere from 114% to 300% without federal subsidies. Some are seeing premiums increase already since Trump’s OBBB eliminated subsidies. What would happen if the Democrats just let that slide and sign a clean CR? That would certainly wake up some more voters for No Kings’ marches, and the blame would fall squarely on the Republicans across the country in an election year.
I appreciate academic work, but I’d have to know if she separated real revolutions/revolts or those financed and created (color revolutions), which the CIA had instigated by NED with USAID financing. The US has created hundreds of revolutions, almost always against socialist leaders, or leaders not friendly with our oligarchy. I would be surprised if the people in Argentina don’t rise when they realize Milei just sold them out thanks to Trump’s election interference. Trump even interfered with New York’s election by endorsing Cuomo and threatening their citizens with cutting off federal funds if they elect Mamdani. New Yorkers are a little more savvy than most and probably know that New York provides the federal government with monies. They don’t need the federal government like the majority of Red States.
And Trump also sent CIA operatives to Venezuela to stir up shit. They even tried recruiting Maduro’s pilot, hoping to kidnap him. We are a royal pain in the ass across the globe.
And, don’t forget, it was our CIA-led revolution in Kiev (Victoria Nuland) that overthrew a democratically elected president that the US didn’t want, which eventually led to Russia invading Ukraine.
Is resource-rich Nigeria next?
I think US citizens will have to feel a LOT OF PAIN to drop their remotes and get out in the streets. We may see a Civil War before we see a Revolution.
” We the People must strengthen the civil society response, uphold the institutions that need upholding, and “renew and improve the institutions that need renewal and improvement without bloodshed. I truly believe that we have the capacity to do that.”
“We the People” would agree with the full copied and pasted quote above but many are now facing the specter of keeping bills paid with no paychecks, the ability to keep food on tables for numerous reasons, health care other than ACA with increasing premiums and drug costs as we watch Trump and Johnson rule while blocking democracy, Rule of Law and our Constitutional rights to do any and everything, including breathe safe air. With no backup from the government which at one time protected us from Dictatorship rule, how do we accomplish any of the above? We in other states do not have the “capacity” to effect the purchase of that state of New Jersey’s Governor election by the SCOTUS backed immunity of Trump’s obvious order to buy it at all costs.
Congress has been rendered useless since long before Johnson sent Republicans home to assure they couldn’t take action on any issues before Congress and to maintain the government shutdown.
WE THE PEOPLE ARE NO LONGER FREE, IN ANY SENSE OF THE WORD.
We cannot rely on polls which show results we were not included in as participants and can only question results with no statistical proof to support their validity. I have already received three political E-mails this morning asking if I am going to vote today in this state with no elections scheduled. I ignored them rather than being forced to be honest by answering NO with no way to add there are no elections here to vote in. The New Jersey Gubernatorial election became frightening overnight after Republicans slammed millions into their candidate and lowered the 8 point lead of Mickie to 1 point.
Chenowitz is right, I’ve seen it happen. In the last days if the East German regime, my job took me in and out of the old DDR regularly, and I worked with some of the leaders of the “Peace Prayer” movement. Tens of thousands of people of all ages and stations armed with lighted candles and singing hymns brought down the government and opened the Wall. I was there that night the Wall came down to meet one of my friends who’d led the local efforts in Goethe’s home town of Weimar. Yes, it can happen…
Between the Revolution and Trump II, ‘we the people’ defined this country by ruling it. We were up to what it takes to rule. Of course, politicians respected us and our power over them. Trump II was elected by a majority of slightly less than 1% of us, but has stolen our power to use against us.
We don’t have to let him get away with that crime, but the question is, are we up to taking our power back? We, the people, have to fight to get back what we gave away.
Let’s do it.
Time for a cynic…we live in an ever more amusement/entertainment focused culture and the protests have been sucked into it. Making protest “fun” blurs the importance of the fight. We need ACTION, not JOY. Save the joy for when we win. How about millions dropping their Amazon Prime membership? How about general strikes? Etc.
Protests are good, but IMHO, we need more.. We need to boycott the businesses of his supporters. Money means so much more to those who already have more than enough of it. The civil rights protests included boycotts. They also featured people getting beaten with billy clubs, attacked by dogs, and flushed away by fire hoses and hydrants! Good trouble comes with acceptance of any reaction.
Don’t forget that it was OUR CIA that toppled a democratically elected gov’t in Chile, years ago, probably killed Allende.
I like the million people march idea very much.
I have health insurance through the ACA marketplace. I don’t qualify for any subsides. Insurance companies have anticipated that low risk healthy people that were getting insurance through ACA are going to drop. My rates are going from $900/month to $1125 a month. This is a $225 month increase or an extra $2700 next year. This is for a crummy high deductible “bronze” plan. This was a 25% increase.
a look into AI and why,
Jacobin.com
humanity needs a democratic control of AI.
id read the text,it has a long range of what ifs. and whos getting what,and when.. b
best wishes all..
Maga politicians seem to think that democracy should be a bygone mode of government and are willing to sell it out. They forget that the majority of Americans have the democratic sense (love their rights and freedoms) in their psyches and are noticing all the ridiculous overreach by a cult of predatory libertine capitalists. They can throw a lot of money at elections and still not win. Remember Musk throwing millions into a Wisconsin Supreme Court race and jumping around on stage with a cheese block on his head like it was a sure thing.
The million-man march on Washington D.C. is discouraged by some due to the propensity for Maga operatives to cause a lot of violence that day, due to so many peaceful protesters being like sitting ducks. Research shows that multiple big anti- fascists protest across the country are by far safer.
We still have our freedom to speak out against/protest, boycott and support those who are be unfairly treated by the trump regime. In reality that’ all of us.