A recent column by Michael Hicks in the Capitol Chronicle focused on a data-point that is far too often overlooked. It seems that calling Republican-led states “Red” is entirely appropriate, because most of them are in the red.
(Before going into the details of the column, I want to note that the Chronicle is part of an encouraging trend here in my city–a trend that is also showing up elsewhere. As I have repeatedly noted, the dearth of local reporting has had a very negative effect on democracy and the sense of community. In city after city, local newspapers have either disappeared or–as in Indianapolis–turned into “ghost papers” that no longer cover the sorts of things citizens need to know about their local institutions. Recently, however, we’ve seen several new media entrants that propose to fill the gap–including Axios Indianapolis, The Mirror, State Affairs, and the Chronicle.)
But back to Hicks. He begins this particular column by noting that from the end of World War II up until about 1980, economic differences among the states bore little relationship to the partisanship of those states.
In fact, if you picked just one variable that best measured prosperity — per capita income — the was no correlation with political party. There were rich states led by Republican and Democratic governors and poor states led by both as well.
Over the past 40 years, that changed. Today, 19 of the 20 richest states are solidly Democratic, while 19 of the 20 poorest states are solidly Republican. It is clear that the GOP has become the party of poor states, while the Democrats have become the party of prosperous states.
The question, as usual, is “why?”
One big culprit is that political parties changed, erasing regional differences. Up until the late 90’s, there were conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans. That is no longer the case, so as states began to align with national politics platforms.
This trend more extreme today. Even races for local government tend to be highly nationalized. State and local issues are often ignored in primary or general elections. This homogeneity of national politics naturally tends to cause parties to have success in places that are more similar – polarizing states between parties.
A second trend is the sorting by politics increasingly effects household location choice. Though much sorting happens at the local level, the nationalization of politics means that state borders now effect household location choice.
The nationalization of politics means that each party has been staking out positions that appeal to majorities in key states. In this way, politicians are choosing their voters. The sorting of households reflects voters choosing political landscapes they prefer, on economic, fiscal and cultural issues. This trend appears to be accelerating.
That last paragraph reminded me of the demographic observations in Bill Bishop’s 2009 book The Big Sort.
Hicks acknowledges that there is never one simple reason for economic performance, but he also hones in on what appears to be the largest cause of the disparity between Red and Blue states: public education.
The cause of the economic divergence is because human capital — education, innovation and invention — replaced manufacturing and movement of goods as the primary source of prosperity. This means that places that grow will necessarily need to develop and attract more human capital. But the educational policies pursued by both parties are vastly different, with very different outcomes.
The GOP has largely tried to adopt broad school choice, and cut funding to both K-12 and higher education. The Democrats have largely eschewed school choice, but amply funded both K-12 and higher education. Seventeen of the 20 best funded states are Democratically controlled and 17 out of the 20 lowest funded states are GOP strongholds. Educational outcomes between these states are stark.
Educational attainment differences alone explain about three quarters of the difference in per capita income between states….
Voucher programs haven’t just failed to generate superior test scores. They’ve impoverished our critically important public school systems –and kept Red states like Indiana poor. As Hicks concludes,
Economists have been saying this for three decades, without any effect in poor states. The prognosis is simply that poor states — like Indiana — are going to get poorer for decades to come. While rich states will grow richer.
Not that Indiana’s terrible legislature will take note….
I recently discussed the abysmal effects of voucher programs on the podcast co-hosted by Morton Marcus and John Guy: Who Gets What?
If you have some time, tune in.
I was born in Indiana. I’ve waited to adulthood, through raising a son in a divorced home, and now as the sun sets on caring for my final parent as well as my career, I can finally escape. As I dream-browse for places to live, I 1000% look for progressive, Democratic (and democratic), locations that I don’t have to feel shame saying I live in.
As a cat-lady (although not totally childless), and soon to be Social Security recipient, I know the GOP looks down their noses at me as a nonproductive socialist, so I won’t be missed when I leave.
It takes a lot of effort to turn a state like Indiana around. A good start would be to elect Jennifer McCormick as our next governor, and Valerie McCray as our next US Senator. C’mon Big Blue Wave! GOTV!
I keep hearing things like, “We are deeply and evenly divided.” We might be deeply divided, but we are not evenly divided. Polls on policy issues consistently show that 70 – 75 percent agree on most policies. We only seem to be evenly divided because fully one third of us don’t vote.
The vote is the best tool ever designed to empower people! USE IT!
ive traveled extensively throughout the south in 46 years of driving truck, hoping to avoid the excess WTFs and such. some back road travel was o.k. as long as the signs were legible. many a load was delivered in these areas. most southern states have about the most screwed up thinking when running a buisness. seems the fact is, today as long ago, the minorities know their place. most economic models atest to low wages and schools that whitey decides who goes where. so,carolina is 47 in wages. looking around, as the lack of unions and living standards beyond the trees make a case where the rest get to live. i still see places in mississippi where they still live in the same shacks they lived in before the civil war, no running water either,nor and hand UP to move past this travisty. i stop at some of these local stores, buy some fresh fruit and talk with the locals. its obvious, the state and select people have only itself to blame for the carange. by all means they could start a head start to revitalize,train and get transport for the others. but the pocket they have dug themselves into serves only who gets elected,and why good paying jobs avoid getting a new workforce motivated. instead the same ol cheap ass industries who exploit cheap labor and provide profits to shareholders will be damn if thats to change. theres no shortage of labor in the south, and its demeaning avenues of employment keep the status quo. if you dare travel outside of the highway/interstate onto 2 lane roads ,some of the most beutiful places can be seen there, between poverty on steroids and the cracker in the squad cars..
yall come back now ya hear!
I read Hicks article first in IBJ, then it popped up in an Indy Star editorial, and then The Capital Chronical picked it up, so it has had wide circulation. While Hicks only mentions education, and I don’t disagree, I wish he would have at least listed a few more things. I am sure that spending for Infrastructure and Parks and maybe even a few more categories give rich states a boost. So it seems that IT’S EDUCATION is too easy an answer and keeps it from being completely convincing. I would love to see a more scholarly paper and wouldn’t mind taking the time to read and analyze.
Jane, I feel your pain and anxiety. My wife and I lived on her family’s ranch in Texas for 15 years. We finally had enough of the monstrous Republican influence and left in 2017. We now live in Denver, Colorado which voted 80+% blue in the last three major elections. BUT we have also experienced a major influx of people doing similar things as we and you are contemplating. Now, housing costs are among the highest in the nation. Some suggestions: Battle Creek, Michigan; Rochester, Minnesota; Pittsburgh, PA; Santa Fe, NM. Use Trulia to look at home costs in anyplace that fits your ideas.
Coincidentally, the Reagan/Regan years began in 1981. The auto and steel industries were allowed to leave the rust belt (Poor Gary just got poorer) and left nothing behind for working people. This, of course, gave somebody to blame by both parties. Reagan promised a shining city on the hill, then started borrowing from and taxing social security. He shamed Russia into tearing down the wall in East Berlin, then instituted unregulated banking. Every Republican administration and Congress since has made our economy more divided and less vibrant even though it is the strongest in the world.
That said, why do we also lead the industrialized nations in poverty, homelessness per capita and lousy education too? The above citation explains it: Republicans require uneducated people so they will buy into their lies and economic B.S.
On per capita personal income, Indiana ranks 39th, followed by the Southeastern States except Florida and Texas. We are the Mississippi of the North, and as Hicks mentions, we have been for forty years or post-Ronald Reagan. Have you noticed that our economic decline, sorting, happiness, etc., resulted from Reagan/Thatcher?
https://www.statsamerica.org/sip/rank_list.aspx?rank_label=pcpi1
Indiana is also lumped into the poor Southern states regarding per-pupil spending on education, otherwise known as the “race to the bottom.”
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/per-pupil-spending-by-state
While Indiana ranks almost dead last for quality of life, it’s ranked 11th for business satisfaction. In fact, all the other themes of rich and poor states are obscured by their “Chamber of Commerce” ranking.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/11/americas-top-states-for-business-full-rankings.html
The Democratic Party at least tries to support the majority of “we the people,” while the Republican Party caters (is controlled) to the Oligarchy. As long as Indiana ranks high in “business friendliness” and “cost of doing business,” there is really no reason to change anything.
It’s also a sign of low-information voters (LIVs). Lack of education and being an automaton will cause voters to cast ballots against their interests. Indiana is full of these because the cost of living is low. The biggest migratory state from Florida right now is Indiana because the cost of living in Florida has gotten too high for many on fixed incomes to take. Too bad we don’t see more Blue State transplants!!
Today, 19 of the 20 richest states are solidly Democratic, while 19 of the 20 poorest states are solidly Republican.”
Why would we in wealthy states want to give Republicans control of the national government, which would result in them plundering our economies to pay for their states?
We are the national majority. We have the more qualified candidates.
We’ve got this.
To Jane and Vernon, I was born and raised in Indiana and spent most of my adult life here except for 10 years of college and first career choices afterwards…came back to Indy in 1988 to work in a family business and stayed even after that failed. I used to have some hope for Indiana back in 2008 when when Obama won here and we also were able to elect statewide Dems. Sadly since then things have gotten MUCH worse with extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression that has given Repugnants a stranglehold on state government. As a now 65 nurse working at a large urban hospital and having survived the disastrous Trump years and especially the clusterf*ck response to the pandemic (and seeing the Repugnant Pence hand the governorship to an unqualified unelected right wing corporate whore like Holcomb) my retired wife and I have decided to leave this country for good, mainly due to the political climate in Indiana and the country and the fact that we could not afford to move to a “blue” state because home prices have gone off the charts. We have visited Costa Rica a number of times and during the pandemic while I was taking a much needed respite from the illness and deaths caused by COVID we decided to purchase a lovely little casita in the mountains of Costa Rica where we will be living in November 2024. While we are excited for the renewed hope of a Harris-Walz team for our federal government (and hopefully maintain control of Congress) I still don’t see Indiana getting more progressive anytime soon, plus we STILL have the regressive effects of a highly corrupt SCROTUS led by right wing fascists and Christain nationalists that will be with us for decades to come. I will peacefully enjoy watching the further decline of western “civilization” from afar, I’ve had it with the racism, and bigotry and misogyny and xenophobia and homophobia, etc…we are facing imminent ecological and economic collapse in a few years and I do NOT want to be in the US when it happens cuz the millions of right wing climate change denying gun nuts are going to lose their tiny little minds when the collapse DOES happen! *rant over*
Great points Dan and Vernon.
Jane, I hope you find the perfect home and location to retire in.
I believe it was red Arkansas that would have gone bankrupt, if states were allowed that option, some years ago, after its Gov’r loudly, and proudly told the world that he was following a RED economic policy. That was gov. Huckabee, sire of the Sarah!
Now, he can be found on TV, doing advertisements.
Reaganomics helped no one but the oligarchs.
Pete – all true, as has been. So are the Electoral College and gerrymandered US House districts…
Dan, I’d encourage you to read Hicks’ blogs as The Country Economist on Substack. He gets into factors which families consider when choosing a city to live in. Safety, amenities, natural and otherwise are also important considerations in addition to education. He makes a persuasive argument that government should focus on making their cities and towns more attractive in lieu of giving incentives for businesses.
I knew about The Mirror, but not about these other local resources so thanks ever so much for that! Continue to be the voice we so desperately need out here Sheila!