Periodically, it’s important to remind ourselves that an average IQ of 100 means that half the population falls below that figure. That statistical reality might help to explain the results of a recent poll reported by The Washington Post. This wasn’t a “horserace” poll; instead, it was an effort to see just how many Americans have accepted elements of Donald Trump’s constant firehose of misinformation.
Actually, it wasn’t simply the acceptance of inaccuracies or distortions that caused my jaw to drop. It was the nature of so many of those lies–claims that are bizarre even by Trump standards.
A majority (52 percent) of Trump supporters say they believe the claim about Haitian migrants “abducting and eating pet dogs and cats.” Excluding those who are “not sure,” twice as many say it’s at least “probably true” as say it’s at least “probably false.” (There remains no real evidence for this claim. Officials have debunked it and linked it to threats, and Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine on Sunday called it “a piece of garbage that was simply not true.”)
43 percent of Trump supporters say they believe that “in some states it is legal to kill a baby after birth” — another claim Trump referenced at last week’s debate. In fact, slightly more said they believed this was true than disbelieved it. (It is false.)
28 percent of Trump supporters say they believe that “public schools are providing students with sex-change operations,” something Trump has recently suggested is happening but for which there is no evidence.
81 percent of Trump supporters say they believe Venezuela is “deliberately sending people from prisons and mental institutions” to the United States. (There is no evidence that Venezuela or any other country is doing this, and Trump has used bad data to support his claim.)
There are a number of other claims that don’t require a departure from reality, but instead rely on public ignorance of government, policy and credible news sources. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans evidently believe the United States has given more aid to Ukraine than all of Europe combined, while 70 percent say they believe millions of undocumented immigrants are arriving in the U.S. every month. Another 70 percent insist that inflation is at its highest rate ever.
The numbers on those counts aren’t terribly surprising in context, given the many false things Trump supporters have convinced themselves of in recent years. For example, most Republicans have told pollsters that Trump didn’t try to overturn the 2020 election, that Trump didn’t have classified documents at Mar-a-Lago and that Trump’s offices were wiretapped during the 2016 election. And of course there is the 2020 stolen-election claim that as many as two-thirds of Republicans have believed.
It is important to emphasize that these percentages are based upon responses from self-identified Republicans. When the survey turned to independents, it found that those respondents disbelieve the Haitian migrants claim by more than 2-to-1, with thirty-five percent saying it’s “definitely false” and only seven percent saying it’s “definitely true.”
The gaps are even wider on executing babies and sex changes in schools. More than 6 in 10 independents dispute both, and relatively few independents — less than one-quarter — embrace them. Many independents are actually reliable voters for one side or another, and the data suggest these are probably Republican-leaning ones.
The article concludes that Trump is largely preaching to a credulous choir, while other, potentially decisive, voters generally see his conspiracy theories for what they are. That is undoubtedly true–Trump has made no discernable effort to expand his MAGA base. Instead, the GOP strategy seems focused on mobilization, on turning out that base, presumably by playing on its fears and bigotries with allegations unlikely to be accepted by more knowledgeable–and less racist–folks.
There are two lessons here. One is a political conclusion that most of us had already reached: this will be a turnout election. Trump’s base is simply not big enough to elect him if enough sane people vote. That’s why the enthusiasm for Harris/Walz and the explosion of grass-roots GOTV organizations are such hopeful signs.
The other lesson is more of a reminder. America has always harbored people who are lightly tethered to reality, people who are ill-equipped, whether intellectually or emotionally, to understand or accept the world they inhabit, and who–as a result–are vulnerable to even the most ridiculous lies and conspiracy theories. The country has also always harbored figures willing to cater to those people–to amplify their fears and to promote their hatred of “the Other” in order to gain political or social advantage. That isn’t new.
What is surprising (at least to me) is how many of them there are…..
At this point, it seems like Harris should win the vote. BUT it also seems that there will be nationwide attempts to corrupt and defeat the certification process. This may well get very ugly and dangerous …. Jan 6 on steroids.
Professor: Frightening data. Very frightening.
I would love to see a study done on the beliefs of publishers, editors and producers in the MSM. Some questions that might be asked are “Is it OK to report as possibly true the lies made by someone who is mentally ill?” Or “Should profit be the top priority of news reporting vs. the truth?” And “Do you believe that the public really has the right to know anything?”
Maybe we are asking the wrong questions of the wrong people.
That makes some statistical sense and puts more of an explanation to the conundrum of gullibility in the trump/maga ranks. This would be impossible to insinuate, however, without creating an absolute firestorm of reactive vitriol. On the other hand, it is one (good) explanation for the apparent absence of curiosity regarding the lack of any factual truth behind all of those outrageous accusations spewed forth by his majesty. I think Kamala will continue to lead by small margins, and will win the popular vote as Dem candidates do, but worry a great deal about those pesky swing states’ stupid antiquated electoral votes. It would be a shame – and a true disaster – if once again someone wins the popular vote, usually by a substantial margin, only to lose in that ridiculous Electoral College. God bless our founding fathers, but this wasn’t one of their higher moments. Let’s just hope that the totals are even too much for the minority to overcome.
I identify as progressive conservative: socially progressive, fiscally conservative. My vote fits comfortably just left of center to support candidates who are serious about governing and have a cogent plan to address issues facing a democratic republic form of government (civics 101). I ignore the sideshows though I must admit it is entertaining. We do not need a carnival side show barker in The White House again. Harris is the only serious candidate qualified to serve as our President and Commander-in-Chief.
If you think about how people generally get their information, you have to acknowledge that the smartest thing the right wing ever did was to set up a web of communication.
Roger Ailes evidently read his history. The successful coups made their first prioriy the takeover of the media. He established a media presence prior to the coup. Get the “people” used to the lies and make sure they hate and fear the correct people. Then give them a good con man, whose words give them permission to hate and fear as much as they like.
Regarding the last paragraphs, I’m not surprised by the large number of susceptible people. I suspect the increasing number of these people is directly related to the exponential rate of change within society, technology, and the world in general. Most people do not react to change especially well. This will be especially true within many religious creeds, as many preach and rely on an unchanging stability of their worldview. However, the last couple centuries (and especially the last half dozen decades) have seen remarkable and hugely _increasing_ change. For those unequipped to handle this amount of change, which is many, they become desperate to find other “answers” and to look for ways to stem or even reverse the rate of change. They are on an amusement park ride that just keeps going faster and faster… and faster, and they just want to get off.
I don’t believe the country’s current problem of the possibility of a President who says whatever comes into his mind, including really wild lies, would have happened before the era of Murdoch. It snuck up on us from before Limbaugh days, but not until we succumbed to mass media saturation of the minds of the nation, which overwhelmed primarily the two extreme classes here, those barely hanging on economically and those with the bulk of the wealth of the country.
in NoDak the population is dominated by misinfo. pox news is a steadfast t.v. in any cafe,truckstop,evelvator. screw the weather chnl, being its farm/ranch area. being able to agree with the whole community about trumps class is more important than the great white combine(hail) or red flag warnings(high wind,low humidity dry). seems after years of asking,whered ya get that info, and believe it, ive asked about hundreds of subjects injected in my ear because i just looked like one of them. injected,without regard if i did or dont. (old saying,if i wanted your opinion id beat it out of you) theres no reading any news, nope ,just yell and scream anything that is regarded as beyong the front lawn of their own property.
few have ever made a sensable conversation even about the,misinfo the spew.
its all about drilling it into someones ear,regardless.
NoDak catholic deity has filed a discrimnation suit in NoDak, seems they are unhappy about abortions,birthcontrol, and lgbq stuff. same shit again from religion that cant seem to understand many of us are tired of religion and its tax status in keeping lockstep with those who cant handle others given freedoms. well dont buy birth comtrol, dont deal with gays and keep away from those pesky clinics that preserve a womans needs,over theirs..
best wishes, now damnit,get out and vote til your blue in the face…
Yes, Pete, you are on point with the Murdoch and Limbaugh issues.
“Othering” in this country try, goes way back to the early land-owning colonists, who convinced the poor that the Indians had to be kept at bay, and sent them to
the western edge of the colonies to maintain that.
Pres. Eisenhower was gobsmacked to realize that half of the nation had IQ’s below 100!
Humans, not just the American sort, are very gullible: when some radio preacher, out of Tennessee, in 2015?, predicted the end of the world, in May of that year, people in many places bought into it. This included some of the French persuasion, who went up some mountains so as to be closer to “heaven” when the “end” came.
We have had just how many fools believe in the QAnon garbage, and the Hillary pizza basement idiocy?
MAGA folks just keep on drinking the Cool Aide!
Our country’s education system fails to value ‘critical thinking skills’ as a necessary and important part of learning. Where appropriate, teachers should ask open-ended questions that promote discussion and debate about what the students are being taught. They should be required to research a subject and then explain their point of view in a group class where different perspectives are considered.
My favorite class in high school was called Values and Issues. Each week we were asked to read about certain current events and then we discussed our individual thoughts in class. Unfortunately, it was an elective class so there weren’t a lot of students interested. They missed out.
Great rant, Jack!
I read more about Hitler’s rise to power and the Third Reich in Germany. Hitler was jailed for a year after his insurrection (coup attempt), during which time he wrote his first section of Mein Kampf. His rise to power and taking over the major party is nearly the same as Trump’s rise over the Republican Party. He gave the German people an identity to blame and hate for their lot in life.
The resemblance is eery!
For those referring to our media, if they want to stay in existence, they, too, have to adapt to market demographics. It’s been a fascinating journey for Gannett News in Indiana. They’ve completely missed the market demographics by trying to stay somewhat neutral, and it’s cost them big in Indianapolis. Nearly all the online readers comment about how Leftist the paper has become. To most of us on this blog, the Indy Star is extremely far from a Leftist newspaper.
The political commentators were horrible at the Indy Star and Muncie Star. They couldn’t even quote people correctly. It would always be skewed toward the local conservative readership. The bad guys wearing black hats were the Democrats, and the good guys wearing white hats were the Republicans. Every story had that twist, regardless of the facts.
The publishing rule for Indiana was to write the story so a fifth grader could understand it. It seemed crazy to me, but now I understand perfectly.
Some have commented about the power transfer between November and January with the state electors. I’m not a constitutional attorney, so I’m hoping Sheila can address the Constitutional Amendment(s) governing this power transfer. My understanding from several writers is that it’s more like a “gentlemen’s agreement” or like a handshake that the electors will follow the implied orders.
This “honorable exchange” is apparently open to manipulation and gamesmanship. Progressive writers are making many predictions about this in November and January.
“How Gullible Are MAGA Folks?” We should be asking how gullible were the rest of us who ignored the warnings in 2016 of the possible MAGA presidential win? It amazed me at some of the intelligent and aware people I know who poo-pooed the possibility of Americans actually putting Trump in the White House.
Not all of Republican claims are a departure from 2024 but are stuck in the reality of our past;; “There are a number of other claims that don’t require a departure from reality, but instead rely on public ignorance of government, policy and credible news sources.”
“Once upon a midnight dreary, as I pondered weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore…” I am spending many of my midnights awake and “weak and weary” of living in fear. Trump and his MAGAs are determined to what is now “…quaint and curious volumes of forgotten lore…” of the realities of our past century lives. We should be quoting Poe’s “Raven” and fight to uphold “Nevermore!” as our foundation in this election year. The never “quaint” and never “forgotten” unwritten law that women are to be kept “barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen” is coming closer and closer as November 5th rushes at us.
“That’s why the enthusiasm for Harris/Walz and the explosion of grass-roots GOTV organizations are such hopeful signs.”
Peggy Hanon … you nailed it. Half our nation is vulnerable to influence of high end wealth financed spurious manipulated media.
Nancy, the kind of classes you describe would, I fear, be determined to instilling “woke ideology” and therefore not permitted. The last thing our legislative overlords want is an informed public capable of critical thinking. Ignorant people are much easier to manipulate.
What’s going on is actually a whole different kind of gullibility that isn’t really gullibility. It’s the elevation of tribal loyalty – loudly asserting what the rest of your tribe asserts, as a show of loyalty – over any other value, including values like truth or falsehood, malice or benevolence, generosity or greed, freedom or oppression, honesty or fraud. And lying to The Enemy – everybody outside the tribe, but most especially The Press and The Liberals – to benefit The Tribe is not a vice, but a virtue, one which is mandatory on pain of ostracism from The Tribe. Loudly asserting things that are entirely absurd is not a vice, it’s ostentatious virtue-signalling, loudly proclaiming your loyalty to The Tribe, a virtue which trumps (so to speak) everything else.
The Leader says that brown people are invading our glorious white patriarchy to rape white women and give candy-colored fentanyl to kids and kidnap and rape and kill and eat our pets! I’m a loyal member of the tribe, so I believe this too!
The Leader says that increasing taxes on imported goods will (somehow) reduce prices of those goods, and that cutting off the supply of foodstuffs from other countries will (somehow) decrease the price of those foodstuffs. I’m a loyal member of the tribe, so I believe this too!
Of course The Leader is not guilty of any of the crimes that The Press and The Liberals (i.e., The Enemy) have accused him of! He’s Our Guy! He’s Our Leader! He can’t do anything wrong, or that would mean that The Tribe was wrong. And I’m a loyal member of the tribe, so I deny that such a thing is possible.
The Other Sheila – I completely agree with you. My high school days were decades ago – long before the far right media infection started.
As for those shenanigans, Montana’s online early voting ballot (intended for overseas voters, especially military) did not include Harris/Walz on the ballot. Their SofS claimed it was an oversight, unintended error! So nobody in her office noticed?!?
Palm Beach, FL, county officials sent out email early ballots (257) to overseas voters with “Tom” Walz instead of Tim. Caught and corrected. Coincidentally, guess who is in Palm Beach county at MaL? Will that misspelling be cause for challenge?
Look for much more of this kind of “error” in ballots going forward. Examine your early voting ballot carefully and report any errors immediately and widely.
All of these seeds of doubt have been spread by howling of insane Johnny Appleseed’s.
Remember when all of the Chinese restaurants were serving cat and rat? It doesn’t take much to add other nationalities of immigrants to that insane belief.
Right up the road here on highway 41, there’s an excellent Greek location, and they serve alligator, eel, turtle, and other exotic type dishes, people pay big money for that. Are the Greeks trying to subvert American society by cuisine, lol!
I Suppose it all is about who’s perspective you’re trying to lens. Koreans eat dog, The French love horsemeat, I mean, you can go on forever. Chinese street food sometimes serves up fried bats. But, when in the United States, these folks don’t do that. The recognition of The ramifications concerning eating of certain animals is definitely a preventative.
I heard that potbelly sub sandwiches are made from potbelly pigs, lol! Well, not really, but hey it fits the narrative! I would venture to say that the Russians have a lot to do with what’s going around, because they know, as you say, the gullibility of the cliff dwellers is legendary.
It’s a cult. There is no other reason why nearly 1/3 of the population thinks that 45 is a good candidate. He’s a freaking felon and families are at war because of this cult behavior. I don’t give 45 all of the credit. I blame 30 years of Rush Limbaugh, Fox Spews and Alex Jones, and Lindsay Graham, Newt Gingrich, Ronald Reagan and MTG, among many others, for this mess we’re in. It’s a cult.
Fox News
If you want to know more about American Gullible, may I suggest reading ‘Fantasyland’ by Kurt Anderson. He goes into detail about when this phenom began (1620) and how it’s going (MAGAs).
Very insightful.
Felix, you nailed it.