There’s a thread running through my political conversations. (Granted, those conversations are with friends and family, all of whom detest MAGA and Trump.) Why do all the indicators point to a close election? Why isn’t Harris easily eclipsing Trump?
Think about it. Even voters who don’t particularly like Harris surely understand that she is a normal politician, infinitely preferable to a senile narcissist with a third-grade vocabulary and a raft of “policies” that would plunge America into a recession (or worse) and threaten world peace.
Hundreds of members of former Republican administrations–including his own–warn that he is a fascist, a dangerous lunatic, a self-regarding autocrat who should not be allowed anywhere near power, let alone the Oval Office.
Trump is a convicted felon, an admitted sexual predator, a congenital liar, a six-times bankrupt “titan of industry”…I could go on, but readers of this blog are well aware of the extent of his depravity.
How, then, is he at all competitive for the Presidency?
It certainly isn’t due to his “policies.” To the extent that he even has them, those policies are anything but the conservative political positions traditionally held by the bygone GOP. The striking departures from those traditional positions means it also can’t be loyalty to the ideology that once characterized the GOP.
As Heather Cox Richardson recently reminded us, Trump has boasted that he had “taken the Republican Party and made [it] into an entirely different party…The Republican Party is a very big, powerful party. Before, it was an elitist party with real stiffs running it.” As Richardson put it, the GOP
had been controlled for years by a small group of leaders who wanted to carve the U.S. government back to its size and activity of the years before the 1930s, slashing regulations on business and cutting the social safety net so they could cut taxes. But their numbers were small, so to stay in power, they relied on the votes of the racist and sexist reactionaries who didn’t like civil rights.
Once in office, Trump put that racist and sexist base in the driver’s seat. He attacked immigrants, Black Americans, and people of color, and promised to overturn Roe v. Wade.
After his defense of the participants in the August 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, he began to turn his followers into a movement by encouraging them to engage in violence.
In the following years, Trump’s hold on his voting base enabled him to take over the Republican Party, pushing the older Republican establishment aside. In March 2024 he took over the Republican National Committee itself, installing a loyalist and his own daughter-in-law Lara Trump at its head and adjusting its finances so that they primarily benefited him.
As Richardson explained, establishment Republicans had wanted a largely unregulated market-driven economy. MAGA Republicans, however,
want a weak government only with regard to foreign enemies—another place where they part company with established Republicans. Instead, they want a strong government to impose religious rules. Rather than leaving companies alone to react to markets, they want them to shape their businesses around MAGA ideology, denying LGBTQ+ rights, for example.
Support for MAGA and Trump isn’t motivated by admiration for his character, intellect or personality. It isn’t motivated by his economic plans, which even conservative economists warn would severely damage the economy, or by loyalty to the GOP, which he has remade into a cult dominated by what used to be its disreputable fringe.
So–What explains his support?
I recently had a discussion with a local philanthropist who served in a state Republican administration, and I agree with his analysis. He ticked off three reasons he believes people support Trump.
- Some subset of wealthy individuals care more about promised tax cuts for the rich than for the health and wellbeing of the country.
- Some people are truly ignorant. Perhaps they get all their “news” from Fox and its clones, or they lack the intellectual capacity to understand what is at stake, or to evaluate competing political claims.
- True MAGA movement folks–by far the largest group of Trump supporters, the ones who’ve “drunk the Kool-Aid”– are disproportionately people who are unhappy with their lives. They haven’t achieved the status or security or love or whatever else they believe they were entitled to, and they’re convinced it couldn’t be their fault; it must be the fault of “those people.” Trump gives them permission to point fingers and give voice to their bigotries: it’s those immigrants, those gay people, those uppity women and/or Blacks.
If the polls are right that the election is close, there are a lot more people in those three categories than I ever imagined…
I had a similar reaction during the 1972 McGovern Campaign. I was shocked and dismayed at the anger and stupidity that animated the Nixon voter. They believed nonsense and could not be moved.
There is another group of people who have a strong belief in one or another of issues related to lifestyles that they are strongly opposed to and are willing to support him and senators/congress for that one or two issues: anti abortion, LBGT rights, anti DEI priorities for loss of personal priority, anti womens and minority rights etc. gun rights, anti global warming etc.
willing to support him for one or more narrow issues because of a strong personal issue and hate those who disagree with that one or two core personal issue.
I agree with the three basic groupings, but I also think there is a commonality that crosses their boundaries. Some of your fellow “Americans” _like_ his racism, fascism, and violence. They don’t support him despite those aspects but _because_ of those aspects. And I suspect these people are a significant portion of all three groups.
Unfortunately, there’s just no accounting for stupid…
Thanks patmcc for your mention of McGovern in ’72 — the last true peace candidate we had.
McGovern’s opponent, President Nixon, however in 1969 made a brave turn against war that is not well known. He ordered closed the military’s bioweapons lab in Ft. Dietrich, MD. (The Geneva Protocol of 1925 prohibits use of biological weapons.)
I trust that Harris will win this election and then our question becomes how to be sure this MAGA movement doesn’t morph into a more sophisticated illiberal democracy movement. Trad Catholics and White Christian Nationalism isn’t going away and the smooth talking bigots like Beckwith and Vance will keep working the room . We have to do all we can to resist that movement in our actions and financial support of the groups in our corner that have influence and power. https://hoosiersfordemocracy.substack.com/ and Sheila will stay o. It. But for now, we got this!
I agree with Denise.
There is no accounting for stupid, but also you can’t fix stupid.
I think those are reasonable and believable categories of voters to explain the closeness of the race for President, but let’s hope that not enough of them reside in the 7 battleground states to let the insipid EC do its dirty work again.
I agree with Marc. There is a fourth group, the evangelical voters who are against LGBTQ and women’s. They are pro-guns rights and anti-climate change. They do what their pastors, Franklin Graham, and the Beckwiths say. They get their news from Fox. They’ve been indoctrinated at church and by Fox. I know because my family is full of them.
I recently met a person that seemed to have a favorable learning toward Trump. I believe that she purposefully tuned out all of the political news. She may have caught a few TV ads. Here whole opinion was based on “out of control immigration”. She was completely unaware of Trump squashing the recent bipartisan immigration bill. She asked, “how did he do that? He isn’t even president.”.
As I watch the few positive Braun commercials, they give no clue what his policy positions are, ditto with his website. It is truly hard to find things like voting record information (thanks for the recent blog post) to understand what his positions really are.
I think most of today’s politicians seem to be counting on voters tuning out all the details because hate and vitriol spewed in the flood of negative ads. Flood the space with sh!t and nobody pays attention and what to believe. The few sound bites that do leak through are extensively tested to sound reasonable and motivate with fear.
I’m in agreement with the Antipsychotic Pac. Tfg is obviously mentally ill.
Now he wants to protect women. Women don’t need protection from anything other than tfg.
First, the only TV that interests me is CNN. In fact, if I were alone, I wouldn’t even have one. I realize that is out of step. I just prefer other entertainment like books.
When the contest was Trump vs. Biden, I was pretty sure that Biden would lose, not because he wasn’t and wouldn’t continue to be a more effective President of the two (a puppet would also be), but because he presented in a manner the only way to understand was if you were also old. I thought CNN offered news from that perspective.
I don’t need to watch any TV now because Harris will win. I think everybody, including both candidates, knows that.
But TV channels have to broadcast content 24/7 so that people will be attentive enough to watch the commercials, which pay for the content.
So the circus goes on.
Poor Donnie Cheeseburger and his side kick, Robin Falsehood, with their cabal of sugar coated repugnant fascist fries … served exclusively during communion at the church of the exalted mighty whities. Come November 5th, Donnie Cheeseburger will be hosting his last supper serving cheap wine from sour grapes and bitters.
There’s another, simple reason: millions of Americans see only what directly affects their daily lives, and what they see is much higher prices since 2020 when they were already barely making it. Their real wages have nowhere nearly caught up. They don’t understand the big picture and if they vote it’s to vote out those in charge. They rightly feel that no one sees or cares about them and Trump does give vent to their decades of frustration.
The data on the strong decline in people’s trust in/respect for government/institutions/our democracy is overwhelming. The immense decline in teaching critical thinking has worked fabulously. They are either not going to vote or vote for “change” (autocracy).
Nice Norris!
Gordon, as much as I hated, and find Nixon to be totally distasteful, i did not kn ow about the billable issue…thanks.
That there are 4 categories of fools who support tfg, as above, makes sense to me. Part of the problem, as I see it, is that a malignant narcissist would know no boundaries, not care about social norms, and thus be apt to drive all out to throw his poison out to whomever might like its taste. They then happily become his gang of “deplorables.”
I suspect that H/W will win, maybe even handily, but ogreman will pull his crap again. Harris says that they are ready for it.
What has enabled this is religion: people who believe things but don’t know about real things.
The Catholics are driving it and the Protestants are following. We need to face the reality that religion in 2024 is inherently anti-Democratic and anti-American.
I believe the root of this evil that is now MAGA began in the 1970s, with a systematic takeover from the 1980s onward. The purpose is unlimited power and greed. The means to that end is a rigid religious ideology. The methodology to persuade good people to vote for Trump is sophisticated, coordinated disinformation.
Trump is just the outrageous face of that religious right movement. In fact he has never shown much interest in religion. He uses it for his own aggrandizing that stems from his extreme narcissist mental illness.
But this corrupt GOP has forced out good people, undermining candidates like Richard Lugar long ago in primary elections, and most recently Liz Cheney.
Only the corrupted can lie as the MAGA leaders do.
I do not believe we have so many really awful people in America. Disinformation has completely distorted reality turning patriotism into insurrection, democracy into autocracy, lies about killing live babies and selling body parts into total abortion bans.
Right now, the entire MAGA news is about voter fraud, claiming victory before the votes are counted. And if Trump does not win, gearing up for a violent takeover. Even the Kremlin agrees!
Personally I believe there may be scattered outbreaks of violence but the majority of even MAGA Americans will not rise up and follow the likes of Bannon into some militia government takeover. As much as Bannon would love to play that rebel role to see his ‘Camp of Saints’ bigotry realized.
But there will be millions of Americans influenced by the disinformation that will be left feeling cheated by a Harris/Walz victory, and that will leave us divided.
To me, stopping the disinformation machine is the key to restoring a normal
political discourse.
Being ever vigilant is the price we have to pay to keep the organized authoritarian forces from taking over school boards, local government, media, legislatures and the Supreme Court. Every book ban, every lie, every patriotic sounding organizing (Citizens United, Judicial Watch, Federalist Society) must be condemned.
It is very hard work, but our true enemy within is in it for the long run. Trump or no Trump.
The other reason Harris isn’t running away with it is that the polls are shit. In other words, we’re going to find out over the next couple of weeks that she is running away with it. My spouse, one of my kids, and I voted yesterday at the Hendricks County administrative building. The have had over 900 people vote there every day since early voting opened on the 8th. The Brownsburg library is having four hour lines to vote pretty much every day. The turnout is setting records!
“As Heather Cox Richardson recently reminded us, Trump has boasted that he had “taken the Republican Party and made [it] into an entirely different party…”
Someone needs to remind Heather Cox Richardson that Mitch McConnell began under President Obama’s administration to deny the President’s nominees to the Supreme Court to have their required hearing as required by the Constitution. That left hundreds of federal judgeships and the beginning of the SCOTUS takeover by the Catholics to reach their establishment of immunity for Trump. Trump is better protected in the courts than any other president has ever been; another historical event to be posted in history books; IF history books are printed to include this past 8 years and the coming 4.
Trump’s former Ambassador to EU, Gordon Sondland, who backed away from Trump after January 6th but now comes out supporting him, stated his explanation for Trump’s speeches last night on Ari Melber’s program, “Those things he says are just the way he talks.” There is no intelligent way to respond to idiocy.
Personally, I am sick and tired and disgusted and embarrassed by this nation at this time; as Vernon says, I am glad I am old. At this juncture in Trump’s world I am also hoping my biopsy is positive and I won’t be here to see America destroyed by the head inmate of this asylum.
Excellent posts from so many newer commenters. They all hit the major points. This comment about the old GOP from HCR is worth a few words:
“…to carve the U.S. government back to its size and activity of the years before the 1930s…”
The 30s, a pivotal era in our history, is relevant to FDR’s New Deal for the American people, which negatively impacted the oligarchs running the country at that time. It could have been much worse since the unions were in full control of the working class – something like 80% of the working-class men (notice I said men, not people) were unionized and ready to ALL go on strike.
Apparently, FDR told the oligarchs that they would give him what he wanted, or he would turn the unionized workers loose on them. The oligarchs obliged, which cut into the inheritance of the Koch brothers. The Kochs have been organizing since to use the GOP to roll the government back to the 1930s – MAGA. They used the Tea Party, but it became a negative brand when all the racism became evident.
Trump was hurled into the limelight with his birther racism aimed at Obama. He was a racist billionaire who strategically used an Evangelical as a VP to solidify his base. His abuse of women made him an idol of many white men. As the posters above alluded to, most of the categories of Trump’s base feel victimized by women, blacks, immigrants, anti-gun people, secularists (Satanists) etc, etc.
Trump is an outlet, a voice, for their role as victims. Trump trying to project himself as the savior of women is really off his schtick and must be induced by Musk or one of his other billionaire oligarchs.
One note on the election: The people who work at the early polls are saying they are getting a record number of voters compared to years past. Traditionally, turnout favors Democrats. This is either the case or it’s older Democrats and Republicans voting early because they’re being told there is a good chance of violence on Election Day. idk
speaker johnson is at least being honest,in a resent interview,admitted the working class is gonna take a hit until we smooth things out.(duh) we didnt expect the head of coup to be bothered with any of the working class/retirees needs, after all, the billionaires/wealthy dont care, they made it a fact now after 45 years of being the recipient of what would have been for those who worked and generated those profits, a living wage and a better/easier retirement for us..has been stolen thru orgs and politiacal hacks who backed wall street and those,and the chosen to be. bezos has been offered something,musk is already there. this group has become the new government. and we never had a chance after reagan.. money bought it all… rest in peace all.. stock ticker,,, XUSA..
PATMCC:
back in 1972 i joined the navy a week after i turned 17. i had moved with my folks from intelligent east coast big city to shithole bakersfield calif. ill,cut the chase. i joined the navy because it had no ocean,and the intelligence factor of bakerspatch was like now,today with magas. i felt Vietnam was easier to deal with.. this isnt a joke..
JoAnn;
gingrich. i felt he was the start of a maga like war. though reagans boot to the unions was paramount in how republicans licked their chops over labor.and start the demise of America
I just want to thank Laurel for posting what is in my mind today but she did it for me. Thank you. I have every confidence in the world that Harris is going to win this election by a landslide. I think of every quiet woman in the world just stewing until she can vote against that man forever. 45 is in for the worst defeat in his life and he deserves everything he will get afterward. Bye Felicia.
Thank you Felicia!
The former so called President has been successful in animating the fears of the group who dread the inevitable soon to come day when what they believe is their god-given privilege to control white Christian America is outnumbered by “outsiders.” Even if that man is defeated in this election, the fear continues. The fight to erase it continues.
Interesting article today in the N Y Times about how polls are being skewed
Out of 184 individuals I asked 19 knew who represented them in the Indiana Senate, House or United States Congress. I wonder how many women know that abortion is illegal in Indiana or how many individuals know the difference between the two candidates for president. Ignorance about the role of government is my number one concern.
Over it makes an excellent point. Religion is fairy tales and makes it easier, I believe, for people to believe ridiculous stuff, like whatever tfg says.
Also, about polls…I’m hoping these are accurate:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4961843-polls-show-vice-president-harris-leading-trump/
Thank you, Sheila for another outstanding post. I see the catalyst for all of this being the successful presidency of Barak Obama. Trump has always been an arrogant, lying narcissist and attention-hog. I’ve seen old interviews with him in which he was boasting about his alleged wealth (and it is “alleged”–read “Lucky Loser”), and him saying that people tell him he should run for president. So, he sees Barak Obama, someone who is far more successful than he is in terms of personal achievements–raised by a single mother, attended Harvard Law School, elected to the Senate, and ascending to the Presidency of the United States, and not only that, being successful domestically and internationally. Obama was very successful and well-respected. According to his niece, Dr. Mary Trump, down deep, Donald is very insecure. He KNOWS he isn’t very bright, that he has squandered a lot of money and has failed at a lot of businesses. She also says Donald is the rabid racist and anti-Semite that we have always suspected.
Do you recall the interview with Meredith Vieira, in which Trump claims he sent people to investigate Obama’s birth in Hawaii, and his claim “you won’t believe what they’re finding”? Yeah, I’ll give him that–we wouldn’t believe it. In fact, they found nothing to counter the fact that he was, indeed, born in Hawaii. But, Trump had to do something, anything, to shed doubt on Obama’s success and legitimacy as a President, so he kept pounding the birtherism lie. He no longer spouts that lie, but there are still lots of people who believe it.
At its core, Trump’s campaign has always been centered on white supremacy, and he panders to the most-deplorable ones among us–other white people, mostly not college educated, who resented Obama and his success, who resent Harris and her success and the success generally of college-educated women and non-whites they believe are displacing them from their perceived position of superiority. It’s all he has–anyone who looks at his life dispassionately would be appalled: divorced twice because he cheats on his wives, entered into a consent decree admitting racial discrimination in housing, a convicted felon, adjudicated of sexual assault and defamation, stole from a charitable foundation, stole classified documents, dodged the draft and calls military members “suckers and losers”,
falsified business records to cover up pay offs to a nude model and porn actress, brags about getting away with sexually assaulting women, 6 bankruptcies, and a long list of failed business enterprises, including 2 casinos.
Then, there’s his record as POTUS–dismal to say the least. America had more COVID deaths than any other developed country, due, in part, to our President deliberately lying about the seriousness of the virus–“no worse than the flu”; “it will go away when the weather warms up”; “you’ll be back in church for Easter”; “it’s just one person coming from China”; “15 cases will soon be 0 cases”. Then, there’s the successful economy he inherited that he proceeded to turn into the worst recession since the Great Depression, the tax breaks for the wealthiest, drove up the national debt to a record….the list goes on.
What would the future hold–Project 2025 would ban all abortions via a “fetal personhood” statute that would over-ride state laws allowing abortion; over 50,000 civil servant positions filled with Trump syncophants who will do his bidding; tariffs that will drive up inflation; using the FBI and DOJ to go after enemies, pulling FCC licenses of any media that speak out against him–he has targeted ABC and CBS already; eliminating NOAA to try to make climate change go away because the fossil fuel industry donated to his campaign. There would be cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, school lunch programs, and Obamacare would be repealed.
“Make America Great Again” really means “make America white again”–hence the demonization of migrants, which appeals to the racists among us–and that’s why they support him. Have the MAGAs really thought about what will happen if they lose their health insurance if they are on Obamacare, or what will happen if they depend on Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid to survive, or the kids who depend on school lunch programs going hungry–or is teaching those uppity college educated people they hate and seeing those brown people put into concentration camps and deported more important? These are the same people that rely on MAGA media that lies to them. I don’t know how to reach them because even when you explain these things to them–they don’t believe you.
The ignorance blows my mind. Some people just don’t think a woman can run the country. I went to a bank the other day and the woman serving me confided that she was voting for Trump. I asked her to reconsider and pointed out several things she had not considered. I am not sure I changed her vote but at least she gave it some momentary thought.
My cousin served as state budget director under a Republican administration. I have admired and looked up to her all my life. I hoped that she would at least be a Liz Cheney kind of Republican but she isn’t. I don’t have much family and to have my image of her as a ethical, upstanding citizen crushed has been difficult for me. She has drunk the Kool-Aid and she should know better.
All the intelligent women I know are voting for Trump – and with solid informed reason!
His garbage truck rebuttal was pure genius.
Face it – the only thing K has to offer is abortion. She can’t do a 3 hr unscripted interview with Rogan. Her brain doesn’t hold 3 hrs of information.
You all better prepare for a clear defeat !
Gail, I know it’s late and you might never see it, but I have to say it. A mud puddle could out maneuver Joe Rogan in a three hour interview. The fact that tfg was on this Bros show doesn’t make him a genius. It did prove that he doesn’t care about his followers, who he left waiting for three hours, while he went on his ego trip.
Give it up Peggy ! Nobody loves their
supporters more than Trump…. and they love him. If only the democrats had something to offer: Joy-less, Clue-less, Use-less…. they are the most self absorbed political party – kind of like this blog – you
all love to hear yourselves pontificate – just one big bubble of the same catch phrases of why T and his supporters are trash.
What a dismal existence.
Goodness Gail! I always enjoy the moments when Shelia allows an unbridled sycophant to entertain us with such mind numbing drivel. Clueless? Well listen – you can enhance your life by enrolling and “earning” a degree from Trump University. Then, book a flight on Trump Airlines to Atlantic City, where you can stay at the Trump Hotel and Casino. While there, enjoy a glass of Trump wine along with your Trump steak. Oops! My bad. Everyone of these are failed ventures by the genius businessman you so evidently deeply admire.
I particularly love how Harris evicerated Trump in the debate. Wasn’t even close. So much so that he refused a second round.
You can attempt to defend the indefensible, but the truth is, he is someone utterly devoid of any redeeming value. Just listen to all of former aides that have abandoned him – those not in jail – for proof. Oh, and how many members of Obama’s and Biden’s staff was convicted of any crimes? Sad!