One of the trickiest problems facing policymakers is the risk of unintended consequences. Even policies passed with the best of intentions can produce very negative outcomes, often to seemingly unrelated issues. Good policy decisions rest both on proper diagnosis–that is, a thoughtful and informed analysis of the problem to be solved and its causes–and on recognition of the effects a proposed policy change might have on other areas of American life.
Those two requirements of sound policymaking–proper diagnosis and an understanding of what we might call the “inter-relationship” of policy areas–require policymakers to be competent and informed. Enormous damage can be done by ideologues impatient with pesky realities, or self-important ignoramuses acting with limited understanding..
Considerable harm can be done unintentionally by people who lack the knowledge necessary to see the probable consequences of their ignorance. What makes the coming Trump administration so terrifying is that it is composed almost entirely of such people.
Trump himself is clearly unable to understand the logical outcomes of his threats–think his love affair with tariffs, which would vastly increase inflation, or the effects of his plan to deport millions of immigrants, many of whom American farmers rely upon to pick their crops.
I thought about the problem of unintended consequences when I came across an article focused on the unfortunate effects of even well-meaning legislation passed by thoughtful legislators.
Richard Rothstein wrote The Color of Law, a book I heartily recommend. It was an eye-opening history of the many laws that created America’s residential segregation, and any reader who comes to it while laboring under the misapprehension that such neighborhoods arose by chance or choice will discover otherwise. (I will admit to being shocked when I read it, and I did know some of what he covered.)
In the linked article, however, he takes analysis a bit farther, and shows how that shameful history led to a seemingly unrelated bill that worsened the negative outcomes of residential segregation.
I was recently asked how I came to write The Color of Law. The answer is this: In the 1990s and early 2000s, I had been a journalist and policy analyst studying public education. At the time, it was conventional wisdom that the “achievement gap”—black students having lower average performance than white students—was caused by lazy or incompetent teachers of low-income children. In 2002, this view, shared across the political spectrum, was enshrined in federal legislation: the “No Child Left Behind” law. Its theory was that if we shamed teachers by publishing their low-income African American students’ test scores, the teachers would work harder and the achievement gap would disappear. Residues of this law continue to this day. If you wonder why elementary and secondary schools are so obsessed with administering standardized tests and reporting their scores, it’s because of that policy.
Rothstein eventually concluded that lower average achievement of these pupils wasn’t due to deficits of instruction, but to the
social and economic challenges that children brought with them to school—for example, greater rates of lead poisoning that resulted in damaged cognitive function; living in more polluted neighborhoods that led to a higher incidence of asthma that kept children up at night wheezing and coming to school drowsier the next day; lack of adequate health care, including dental care, that brought more children to school with distracting toothaches, and on and on…
Looking back on this now, it’s remarkable that the book treated these all as individual student disadvantages, and made very little mention of segregation. But I soon thereafter realized that it was one thing if individual students came to school with one or more of such challenges; it was quite another if many students in a school did so, overwhelming the ability of even the best teachers to overcome them. We call such schools “segregated” schools and so I began to think of school segregation as the greatest problem facing American public education. And as I thought about it further, an obvious fact struck me: the reason we have segregated schools is because they are located in segregated neighborhoods. For me, a logical next step was to view neighborhood segregation as a school problem, one that writers about education policy should consider more carefully.
That insight led Rothstein to write The Color of Law. It should caution us to recognize the complex and inter-related nature of so many of the issues modern America faces.
We will soon see what happens when the government is run by people who don’t understand H.L. Mencken’s observation that “For every complex problem, there’s an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”
And that old adage, “Anyone in America can grow up to become president.” has proven the dangers of “Unintended Consequences” as we await the 2nd inauguration of Donald Trump to the Presidency.
I’m sure the founding fathers, when writing the qualifications to serve as president, did not mean a lying, raping, thieving, self-proclaimed businessman fit the qualifications. Their error was in believing thinking, rational, moral voters with democracy as their priority would consider voting for a candidate after 34 criminal convictions and publicly threatening to jail anyone who disagreed with him.
“We will soon see what happens when the government is run by people who don’t understand H.L. Mencken’s observation that “For every complex problem, there’s an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”
Beyond here there be dragons!
While President Biden is still in power, he could step down and let Kamala Harris be sworn in as President Harris #47. Then she could declare a National State of Emergency and order martial law. Next, she could suspend election confirmation and order the DOJ to investigate the Constitutionality of installing a convicted felon and insurrectionist as the next president #48. This process could take months and years. Democrats continue to attempt to follow the rules, while MAGA GOP, Trump, et al, donʻt follow any rules. These are not normal times, and this calls for a new way to deal with the lawlessness of the current iteration of Republicans. President Harris must lead the way.
It occurs to me that the only intelligence capable of managing all three branches of government is artificial with some human supervision.
Many large language models train by memorizing the entire Internet, so I’m sure that, with enough graphical processing units, adding the entire body of US law is not far off.
Politics will be the last remaining obstacle over the upcoming Presidential term.
I can’t think of any present Cabinet candidates who are bright enough to realize the significance of AI.
The Indianapolis School Board encountered an unintended consequence when in 1922 they determined all Black students would attend a new, segregated, high school, later called Crispus Attucks HS. Though the Board promised legally required “separate but equal” educations for the students, they did not anticipate the new school attracting teachers with not only bachelors degrees, but also many with masters, and one with Ph.D education, putting them well above the normal teacher qualification at the Whites-only high schools, and giving the students an excellent education.
Another unintended consequence: once the Crispus Attucks students were allowed to compete with other schools in sports, CAHS won the state high school basketball tournaments in 1955 and 1956, and produced outstanding players who went on to play professionally, like the “Big O,” Oscar Robertson, and George Crowe who played baseball in 1947 for the New York Black Yankees and in 1952 for the Boston Braves.
Hey, Pete, Elon Musk knows a thing or two about generative AI, and he’s recruiting his Tech buddies to work for DOGE, our new shadow government. Our shadow government will replace the “Deep State” shadow government so that all things will be copacetic. 😉
In the legal field, AI already exists for legal professionals. Berkeley has a class if interested:
https://executive.law.berkeley.edu/programs/generative-ai-for-the-legal-profession/
The Oligarchy isn’t interested in thinking beyond three months because analysts’ earnings reports are broken down in 90-day intervals. We suffer from short-term-itis as a country. Who would have thought the CIA toppling the Ukrainian leadership would lead to a proxy war with Russia? 😉
Ball State University had a history class funded by the Ball Brothers Foundation to underwrite the “definitive guide” to racism in Muncie, Indiana. Several local bankers wrote forwards to the guide, praising the Ball Brothers. Most of the blame was placed on the KKK (who do you think secretly funded the KKK) – an anonymous group of bandits.
However, one of the Ball sons was a real estate developer who controlled the development of our community from the beginning. It required control over the realtors in the community, mainly unwritten code, that would steer buyers to specific neighborhoods. The managers of the corporations lived in the Northwest, and the workers lived on the Southern side. Blacks were segregated into the East side. Any blacks trying to venture into the South side would be met with crosses burning in their yards. Covenants were written for each neighborhood to assist the realtors and bankers (also controlled by the Ball family). They restricted blacks, Jews, and Chinese in most neighborhoods. Even Jewish architects from the college weren’t allowed to design homes in most of the wealthier neighborhoods. It was crucial to have these covenants when the black soldiers returned from WW2 and had the GI Bill assisting them with buying housing. Instead of being able to buy a nice house in a good neighborhood where values appreciated, they were forced to buy homes in segregated areas with very little appreciation.
Most of my research materials were scrubbed from the internet, so only a few book chapters remained. None of these were used in the history class at BSU. The “definitive guide” was whitewashing, and the professor supervised the process.
When the neighborhood covenants were discovered, the Ball descendants put together a program that updated the neighborhoods, and they rewrote those covenants to remove the restrictive language.
What’s hilarious is that Ball State University has a department called the Middletown Studies, and it should only be interested in seeking the truth. How we treated blacks in this community was all whitewashed, even in the Lynd’s famous 1930’s Middletown studies.
Some claimed “institutional racism” was just an unintended consequence of the times. Nope! It was designed and entirely intentional. Segregation was no accident!
There is one other important “brainstorming” that should be done before new laws/regulations besides imagining the unintended consequences – “how could grifters use this to their advantage?”.
Gordon, thanks for the reminder of the excellence of CAHS. That institution beat the school board at its own game, hands down.
Meanwhile, back to the topic at hand: unintended consequences. The incoming drumpf administration of *billionaires* has one intended consequential goal: enriching themselves. The fallout for the rest of us is of no consequence to them. And whilst I agree somewhat with what J Smith Jones said regarding ceding the current presidency to Kamala, etc, I fear that the unintended consequences of that action could be catastrophic, if for nothing else other than setting a dangerous precedent that would ultimately backfire in the worst possible ways.
growing up inner city Newark,N.J. didnt come with paved roads to anywhere. the race riots and friction that embossed the police and prosecutors office there will carry its past with regret,and still under the dark, shanks the less fortunate in daily life. I went to catholic school. and a few years in public school. the teachers were diffrent. mainly high strung women needing to discipline everyone and hold there attention likewise in one,and free flowing niceness in the other. (1960s)there is a diffrence. when one school is 80% white and the other 70% black. guess which one struck out. the economics of the neighborhood was the crucher. both schools were in this zone. My grandfolks who raised me taught me to read between the lines. and never just walk past someone hungry. my school lunch was split with someone. few if any see the plight of self segregation by ones self,it does not matter.. when America was waved as home of the free,is it free.it would include all people to have a equal chance to life and real liberty. instead whittey,(myself) made sure we had a kicking boy to advance our goals. since we are taught the working class economy was only so big,and could only be shared with a few. if we were to expand our economy and had a main street today with the money the rich have now hoarded for their own personal goals. (it was needs,now its a free for all against the very people who make that profit) have locked out vast trillion$ that could be in the local economy and shared by the masses. instead we have educated (via todays medias)the messes to belive its just fine to hate and disregard others while we merry christmas our way to la la land. this isnt about race now, its about the majority of those who work and those who could be making a living wage. instead we see every day how credit is the way it is. look at figures for savings among us. dismall. the rich have now become landlords by investment,investors from overseas has now also made landlords from abroad. the supply and demand that causes inflation,(by someones idea of inflation) is from non compete strangle hold to make profit over a economy that supports its people. the rich have now taken over the nations grid. musk now is trumps little boy prez, and from s Africa. his (like his elfs in waiting)idea will be apartheid, economically (by his standards)to those who want America to be his America,not a America for all.. Merry Christmas/happy holidays etc.
In the very early ’60s, I lived in an integrated neighborhood, attended an integrated school (Catholic!), and worked in an integrated store in northern Indiana. Very unusual for the times. We had moved from a small Ohio community with enforced sundown laws and occasional cross-burnings on the lawns of the few white Catholics in the town.
Of course, even as a child I was aware of being “outside” and discovered over time all of the barriers in place to keep me there. And I was white.
I was never taught anything but the white version of state history in school. I learned the true vicious, violent and strictly enforced racial history of Indiana as a adult. That history was intentionally hidden for decades by public officials. The names of those on the rolls of the KKK throughout the state in the ’20s have finally been made publicly available very recently. There still may be Hoosier households where that is considered a badge of honor.
A family member bought a house in a fairly wealthy neighborhood several years ago. He found the original plans and the deed for the property when he was clearing a room for repairs. It had very clear, specific racial language regarding the restrictions for resale of the property. It was pretty shocking to see it so plainly drawn up in a legal document that dictated the intended consequences.
Todd is right. It was and is intentional, with malice aforethought.
I have the accident of birth to be white and have the privileges of that condition. The cultural, legal and religious conditions I experience as a woman in a patriarchal legal/financial system may not be as egregious as a person of any color other than white deals with on a daily basis even today.
The living conditions still firmly embedded in the development/real estate industry are apparent to all with eyes to see. It effects schools, teachers and students profoundly. Just take a drive through the east side of the city, then take a drive into any of the metro counties. The difference in conditions is striking, especially in the school campuses.
Hungry, sick and marginalized kids have so many challenges to overcome just by walking out the door every morning. The harm that segregation has done and continues to do starts with the youngest and most vulnerable. And there are too many who care only before the child is born. Otherwise, every child would have access to good healthcare, safe living conditions and a good educational opportunity. We would actually do something about gun violence, lead poisoning, environmental degradation and public healthcare. But, as always, follow the money.
What “Unintended Consequences” can we expect if Trump reclaims ownership of the Panama Canal? Will he try to move it to the northern part of Florida to separate it from the rest of the contiguous United States and declare sovereignty for Mar-A-Lago in the Florida territory?
When was the last time a politician had a good idea about education? When they passed “No child left behind,” they could have and probably SHOULD have directed that those failing schools get additional resources. Why didn’t they?
We know that the long term Koch plan was to eliminate the public school systems in America. Instead of resources, the schools were closed and vouchers became the rage. So we’re left with a public that knows nothing about history, geography and civics, but they know their Bible!
Orange Jesus loves stupid people. We’ve all heard that from his own mouth. So Charlie Koch and his friends have finally gotten what they came for, an electorate that is stupid enough to put an unqualified, self serving, ignoramus BACK into office.
On a personal note, let me say I don’t like using the word stupid. I prefer ignorant, but if you continuously close your mind to ideas that are different from yours, IMHO you no longer have the right to be deemed merely ignorant.
Make no mistake about “No Child Left Behind”. It was a right wing attack on teachers unions. G.W. Bush, like Reagan was merely a puppet reading the teleprompter in espousing this horrible, wasteful and punishment – only policy. In Texas where it originated, the taxpayer saw over $400 million per year wasted on tests that were not just dumbed down, but inaccurate to the curriculum. Teachers were pressured to teach to the test lest the principals lose their jobs to this idiocy. Oh, and the test scores on national tests from public school students vs. private school students were virtually the same, and the public school national test scores were flat after several years of testing.
I saved up my sick days so I wouldn’t have to be part of this disgusting waste of money and harm to our students’ learning.
Once again, Republicans came to the rescue of sanity and doing what’s good and positive for the American people. So, when talking about unintended consequences, one only has to look at the latest fiasco from Republican politicians. This coming national shit show will confirm all those fears and concerns.
Speaking of unintended consequences, noted climatologist and solar physicist Bill Gates is reported by FORBES (1/11/21) to be funding Harvard University researchers on spraying calcium carbonate (CaCO3) into the atmosphere. Gates calculates this will reflect sunlight out of Earth’s atmosphere and trigger a global cooling effect.
An opposing opinion has been published 5/14/24 by neurosurgeon Jack Kruse who warns that Gates’ spraying of dust into the atmosphere, resulting in blocking of sunlight, will exacerbate the incidence of soft tissue cancers.