I have a theory. Bear with me…
Trump is clearly concerned that Republicans will lose the House–and even, possibly, the Senate–in the 2026 midterm election. Because he’s Trump–aka stupid– and because he always opts to cheat rather than compete, he is pressuring Red state Republicans to engage in mid-cycle gerrymanders that he believes will add “safe” districts in those states and protect Congress from a Blue midterm victory.
My theory is that–rather than a traditional gerrymander–we may see what has been dubbed a “dummymander.”
Let’s look first at Texas, where state officials who bow to every Trumpian command have already completed their obedient mid-cycle redistricting. Several observers have pointed out that those revisions incorporate assumptions based upon data from the 2024 election–an election in which a larger number of Latino voters than expected supported Trump. Current polling suggests that those voters have changed their minds–and that far from building on that incursion, Trump is now deeply underwater with Latinos in Texas. Republicans in that state are now worried that the new districts that mapmakers drew to be “safe”–based in large part upon data reflecting that unusual (and fleeting) Latino vote– are actually likely to make several existing districts competitive.
Here in Indiana, the reluctance of several Republican lawmakers to engage in a mid-cycle gerrymander has been attributed to integrity (stop laughing!)– to the acknowledgement of those lawmakers that doing Trump’s bidding would constitute a wrongful and arguably unlawful “rigging” of the electoral system. Perhaps some of the members of Indiana’s pathetic super-majority do actually have consciences, but I think their reluctance is more likely based upon a recognition that Indiana’s extreme gerrymandering has already reached its demographic limit.
What do I mean by that?
After the last legitimate redistricting, I had coffee with a political science colleague who had examined the data the Republicans had used to draw their district lines. He noted that they hadn’t added any new safe districts, and attributed that decision to the fact that the populations of rural Indiana–the source of GOP dominance–have been thinning out. As a result, there simply weren’t enough reliable Republican voters to support creation of an extra “safe” district–doing so would endanger incumbents in the current districts.
The emptying out of rural Indiana has continued.
Furthermore, there’s another defect in the data our Republican overlords use to draw those district lines. As I’ve frequently noted in these posts, gerrymandering is first and foremost a voter suppression tool. The current, presumably “safe” districts are home to a number of Democrats, Independents and unhappy Republicans who simply haven’t been voting–they’ve been convinced that their votes wouldn’t make a difference, a conclusion supported by the lack of a Democratic candidate in many of those districts. (Disengagement from the democratic process isn’t unique to Indiana–the number of Americans who failed to vote in the last Presidential election was larger than the numbers who voted for either candidate–a shameful statistic.) A new gerrymander would begin with the use of data incorporating the absence of those disaffected voters from the polls.
But as investment advisers like to remind us, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
In this case, thanks to the Trump administration’s ongoing war against democracy and the Constitution, millions of Americans have become newly engaged. Indeed, evidence of that sizable public blowback is what has prompted Trump’s gerrymander push. The millions of protesters insisting that America has “No Kings”–see you there tomorrow!– and the millions of Americans who participate in the growing number of weekly spontaneous protests aren’t likely to stay home next November. Assuming Democrats and Indiana’s newly active Independents give them a choice, a lot of those so-called “safe” districts won’t be safe.
My theory is that even the dimmer members of Indiana’s GOP super-majority have figured this out, and that their reluctance to do a mid-cycle redistricting isn’t just based upon the likely negative public reaction to such in-your-face cheating, although that does worry some of them.
It’s based upon a recognition that–as they say in those rural precincts–pigs get fed, but hogs get slaughtered.
My theory (and yes, my hope) is that a mid-cycle redistricting, if it occurs, will turn out to be a dummymander.
I agree with much of what you have written, professor. I also think that between the millions in the streets this weekend for No Kings, trump/maga moves to provide circumstances that rationalize declaring martial law, and the disgust with which high-ranking military view the destruction of our republic, a Berlin Wall-type weekend could be before us. Any later & we might not be able to act in defense of our republic. An important dynamic is exemplified by “2A” enthusiasts. Everyone should be careful & try to stay safe, but the reticence (i.e., fear) that some have because there might be violence is precisely why we must take to the streets to show our support. I’ve been a pacifist all my life and have damaged cartilege in my nose (i.e., getting punched & refusing to hit back) to show for it. I have no reason to abandon pacifism.I have every reason to be in the streets (in my home city of Peoria) to peacefully demonstrate.
“Here in Indiana, the reluctance of several Republican lawmakers to engage in a mid-cycle gerrymander has been attributed to integrity (stop laughing!)– to the acknowledgement of those lawmakers that doing Trump’s bidding would constitute a wrongful and arguably unlawful “rigging” of the electoral system.”
The Democrats should have seen the warning signs of this coming long ago when, not only in Indiana, the “…wrongful and arguably unlawful ‘rigging’ of all governmental systems locally and all the way up to the Federal level began years ago. The stain of Trump’s first term has never been cleared away so they had a set starting point to return to where they left off in 2021. The destruction of Indiana’s viable Republican party began in 1992 with Goldsmith’s precursor tactics of Trump’s easy takeover of his full dictatorship supported by Indiana Republicans today…including those “several Republican lawmakers” who appear to be waking up to their truths today.
I like the term “dummymander”. Very creative use of language.
The Dems, or Independents, in Indiana should be making an all-out effort to have a candidate running for every seat that is included in the mid-term elections, from school board to US Senate, even if there is no chance to win. They would draw resources from every GOP candidate who will be running and would up the chances of breaking the super majority before the election in 2028.
Good discussion. thank you, Sheila. Stored political energy breeds over confidence. Drain Republican batteries in the mid term. Make the Despot scramble and squirm. Claiming domestic opposition are terrorists is a desperate cry. Show up tomorrow hands down and heads up.
Dummies are polite terms for MAGAs. The Tea Party’s slogan was, “Win at any cost!” That slogan has carried over to MAGA, but they aren’t clever enough to keep it a quiet strategy. They are always saying the quiet parts out loud, especially Trump.
There was a justification for Texas redistricting, namely that California would gerrymander its own districts. However, CA has a Citizen Committee that redistricts, so they aren’t controlled by one party or the other. In other words, another lie.
Quite frankly, at this point, all this administration does is lie. I think lying goes hand in hand with ignorance. While some suggest that we shouldn’t look upon MAGA cult members as ignorant, I support the Stoics in this regard. They suggested not wasting your energy on ignorant people because you never arrive at the truth. It always breaks down to a shouting match or character assassination.
If you notice, MAGA is very good at assassinating everyone’s character. Patriots who show up tomorrow to protest Trump and his authoritarian regime are “terrorists who hate America.” “Antifa loves Hamas.” Etc., etc.
As a journalist, I’ve canceled all my government newsletters that show inflation, labor, and health numbers. I don’t trust any of them. Trump recently said, “There is no inflation anymore.” Tell that to millions of Americans who are basically on fixed incomes – retired and salaried workers who experience not just inflation but shrinkflation. The corporate conglomerates holding price levels are putting less in the packages.
If Trump and his MAGA crew had at least blended their lies with some truth, they could have confused the people, but the only people who believe their bullshit are MAGA cult members or ignorant Americans.
p.s. The Nobel Peace Prize winner (Machado) said that if she becomes president in Venezuela, after Maduro is ousted by the CIA and our military (junta), she will sell off the state’s oil company. Big Oil’s investment in Trump is paying off bigly! And Trump/Miller claims their military exercise in the Caribbean is because “Venezuelan cartels are killing hundreds of millions of Americans with their imported cocaine.” LOL
#BelieveNothing
Well, maybe dummymandering is the correct term for what Republicans are attempting to do. But don’t forget the other voter suppression activities going on like trying to eliminate mail-in ballots, ID requirements, reduced polling hours, etc. Republicans, ever since George H.W. Bush hired Karl Rove have installed the “win at all costs” attitude and have eschewed governing.
So, as several others on this blog, and around the country have suggested: When the Republicans see that none of their shenanigans are helping their cause, Trump will declare martial law – on any pretense – and suspend the election. Do you suppose those Indiana soy bean farmers are going to sit still for that? Minnesota just lost $50 billion in soy bean revenue due to Trump’s idiot level tariffs.
Marching and demonstrating is one thing, but getting those bodies to the polls is something different. It’s still over a year before the election. What could possibly go wrong? We’ll soon see.
I will be at the rally tomorrow in Lebanon instead of going to the one in Indianapolis. There are also events in Plainfield, Fishers, Greencastle, Frankfort, Nashville, Bloomington, Anderson,, Columbus, Kokomo, Lafayette, Greensburg, Terre Haute, Delphi, Muncie, Bedford, Marion, Logansport, Peru, Marshall, Wabash, Brookville and Liberty, And these are just the ones in deep red Indiana!
If you are reluctant or afraid or unable for any reason, to tackle downtown Indianapolis tomorrow, go to a rally near you. Even if all you do is drive by and honk your horn in support, you will be doing something important.
Still uncertain? Go to Indivisible.org and start reading.
Trumpianite- pols – by their very nature- are pessimistic folks. They presume that the Results may be/turn bad. They may for example- refuse to have elections or seat those elected- think AZ elected Dem now. Will Dems and We trust- “the system “- as we have done too often lately. Resistance- true Resistance- requires organizing out of tomorrow’s marches. If we believe in Democracy- why aren’t we resisting- the attempts of Democratic leadership to suppress Mamdani and the upcoming Maine primary. Our “experts “ on Middle East Peace- on CNN- rarely include thoughtful researchers on Hamas- who aren’t in line with the lies…..
This entire voting thing is silly.
More than ever, American voters deserve Fair and Real elections.
Elections should be simple and impeccably fair. The winner gets the most votes.
If districts are necessary, they must be created by certifiably apolitical means.
No political structure, entity, or individual gets to interfere with the candidates
or the districts.
How do we make this happen?
I agree with Jeff at 8:51am….why do we need districts, why do we need an electoral college? One man, one vote should be the only requirement for tallying votes, whether they be in person, or by mail. An extended election day might be helpful to get more participation. A 6am to 6pm doesn’t work easily for many people who work. There has to be a simple solution to fix that problem. It can be done.
“All politics is local!” Here in Ft. Myers the County Council races are not done by district. We have districts mapped, but everybody gets to vote on all candidates. The result is that the Council has reliably been made up of white men. No women or people of color need apply. If you think we don’t need districts you’re not viewing the system adequately.
We could and SHOULD get rid of the Electoral College, since it only serves the purpose of the minority of voters. For the rest we need a law that requires redistricting be done by a neutral body.
Eliminate the Electoral College and go to a direct vote. Reconstruct representative systems. Oh…and…eliminate FOREVER the concept of ”Citizens United.”
The Professor is right in that there are Repubs in Indiana districts who are aware that there is a good chance that adding more Democrats (cracking) might push them out.
Some things to consider when discussing banning mail-in ballots:
How would deployed military/diplomats/civilians vote?
Would mandatory in-person voting mean that ICE and CBP personnel could be put in place to examine “papers” of those they consider suspect (based on appearance only)?
Would the impacts on their own voters be greater than any suppression of opponents if they remove mail-in ballots, especially among the elderly and rural voters? Closing voter registration locations, voting sites, and shortening voting hours may actually affect their own voters more than those opposed.
As evidenced by Politico’s disclosures of the Young Republican leadership’s internal communications , they think in absolutes of racial identity. Look around and understand that there are so many, especially young people, who are of mixed race. They are eligible to vote. Building their base by exclusion is poor strategy. The kind of rhetoric they spewed identifies them all as racist, misogynist, homophobic xenophobes, in other words NAZIs.
The resignation of those opposed to dump’s overreach, especially among the military, law enforcement and legal groups is worrisome. If they are gone, who will replace them? Likely, loyalists who will bend the knee through opportunity, fervor, fear or cowardice may tip the scales to authoritarian rule much more quickly.
We live in perilous times. The water is warming to boil. Is it too late to jump out?
RESIST.
Robbie and Jeff,
Of course. BUT ridding ourselves of the archaic EC and forming neutral bodies to district states requires a Constitutional amendment and a majority Congressional law. Does anyone see that happening in the near future? The only way these things can become reality is if Republicans are voted out of office everywhere and an intelligent, non-corrupted Congress overturns the Citizens United v. FEC decision by the corrupt Republicans in SCOTUS.
I think Republican is becoming – if it hasn’t been true for a while – synonymous with corruption.
The emptying out of rural Indiana may be an unexpected result, in part, of the very gerrymandering the GOPIGGIES have been engaged in.
No, we need no Electoral College, which should be obvious.
Protest, Protest, Protest!!!!!!!!
I agree, Mitch, and rural America will likely decline further after many farmers, especially soybean farmers, go bankrupt this year, as there are no buyers from China.
According to those in the know, hedge fund managers like BlackRock are considering purchasing farmland as a result of Trump’s trade practices with China. Do you know who else will be filing for bankruptcy?
Tech companies have heavily invested in AI and their data centers, and if Trump fails to get China’s export controls lifted on rare earth minerals, Big Tech may face significant consequences. Without access to China’s minerals, the AI/Tech bubble will burst sooner than those predicting it now. You can add Jamie Dimon to the long list of knowledgeable people calling for a significant Tech correction.
While it is true that a constitutional amendment would be required federally,
I know I would vote for those involved in a political movement to make elections simple and fair in Indiana. It could be the main plank to kill all the electoral BS.
Get away from all of the esoteric political speak and concepts and move to a sense of what is right vs what isn’t in a plain common sense approach.
We have a police state developing in plain sight and Indiana politicians are in on it even if they aren’t by going along with it.
Keep it simple people…bad shit is happening and they need to go!!!