A recent Vox article focused on a question–perhaps the question–that consumes most sentient Americans these days, especially the seven million of us who turned out for the No Kings protest: can America recover, or have we lost representative government forever?
As the article began,
The president of the United States is deploying masked troops to the streets of blue cities, working to put friendly billionaires in charge of the media environment, and attempting to jail his personal enemies.
Can any democracy come back from this?
There is relevant research on that question, and the article cited two papers published earlier this year that seemingly came to opposite conclusions. In both, researchers examined what are called “democratic U-turns.” Those are situations in which a country that begins as a democracy subsequently moves toward authoritarianism, but recovers in relatively short order. The first research team’s conclusions were optimistic. “They identified 102 U-turn cases since 1900 and found that, in 90 percent of them, the result was “restored or even improved levels of democracy.”
The second team, however, focused on 21 of the most recent cases and concluded that “nearly 90 percent” of alleged U-turns were “short-lived mirages.”
After contacting both teams of researchers, the author concluded that the seemingly opposed findings weren’t actually inconsistent —and that the implications for the United States are both hopeful and disturbing.
Both research teams used a “democracy score” that takes into account how free the press is, whether elections are free and fair, and other accepted markers of democratic societies. A U-turn is defined as the country’s democracy score rebounding after a recent decline — and the data suggests that such U-turns are very common, that over half of all countries that have experienced a slide toward autocracy have also experienced a U-turn. And the research found that those U-turns have typically been very successful.
Good news, right? But as we know from differences in poll results, results will vary depending upon who you ask and how you frame the question.
The second group of researchers focused their analysis on twenty-one cases of democratic U-turns that occurred post-1994. The authors then looked to see how many of those countries maintained their higher, post U-turn democracy scores. Their analysis extended to the years following those that the first team analyzed–looking to see whether the gains of a country’s U-turn were sustained. The findings on that score give us little cause for optimism; “out of the 21 cases, 19 countries experienced another decline in their democracy score within five years of the seemingly successful U-turn.”
Both teams of researchers emphasized that their findings were not in tension. For one thing, modern autocratization differs from the historical pattern. “Before the 1990s, democracies tended to be toppled by coups or revolutions — unmistakable uses of force that ended the current regime and replaced it with naked authoritarian rule.”
Nowadays, thanks in large part to democracy’s increasingly dominant ideological position around the world, the threat tends to come in a more subtle and hidden form — what scholars call “democratic backsliding.” In these cases, a legitimately elected government changes the laws and rules of the political system to give itself increasingly unfair advantages in future elections. The ultimate aim is often to create a “competitive authoritarian” regime, where elections are not formally rigged but take place under such unfair conditions that they can’t truly be considered democratic. That’s what Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party did in Hungary, and what PiS tried to do in Poland.
And–rather obviously–what Trump is trying to do in the U.S.
As the article notes, because elected authoritarians were elected, they often represent a real constituency–one that is often large enough to make it impossible for their opponents to defeat them permanently and democratically illegitimate for those opponents to outlaw them entirely. Just because you have a democracy doesn’t mean you have a stable democracy. As the article concludes:
Even if America experiences a U-turn upon Trump’s departure, the country may not be out of the woods. The forces that made Trump possible in the first place will still remain, open to exploitation by any political leader with the requisite savvy and shamelessness.
“There is a reason why Trump came to power, and there is a reason why he won those elections… If you don’t solve the underlying reasons, then of course democracy will still be at risk.”
I am increasingly convinced that the U.S. will oust Trump and his band of wildly incompetent White Christian Nationalists–that we will experience a U-turn. I am far less sanguine about our ability to address those “underlying reasons.”
Has the SCOTUS full immunity given to Trump ended all Oaths of Office by elected and appointed officials and our own Military? Is the Constitution officially defunct and useless in Trump’s control? How is our Military reacting to being turned on American citizens with full physical action against citizens approved by Trump?
Will we be forced to depend on our Military and hope they decide to uphold their Oaths to protect America and it’s citizens or will they chose to support the ever strengthening Fascist administration taking over control of and destroying our civil and human rights by JUST FOLLOWING ORDERS? Can a Nuremburg style Trial be called to order to end this Fascism while still in Office. Historically, the Nuremburg Trial was based on Trial Rules allowed to prisoners in the infamous Andersonville Prison during the Civil War to end the terrorism of stronger prisoners over the weaker ones. The trial resulted in a rather convoluted democracy with the victims become the victors; executions were held.
We don’t need to seek executions but we do need to fight for victory NOW not at the end of Trump’s 4 years of terrorism and Fascist leadership.
I wish that I had Sheila’s optimism, but we’ve been an oligarchy for far too long, and they’ve finally got a guy who will bask in the limelight of being an authoritarian while insisting he’s not.
Furthermore, many countries in those studies that lost their “democracy” since the 50s were because the US Intel made it happen with color revolutions and outright regime changes. We caused the recent eruptions in Ukraine, Venezuela, and Argentina. We used to do it covertly, but Trump actually announced that the CIA was ordered to move into Venezuela and attack Maduro. That again is just ignorance.
The result of all of our regime change operations has been to install right-wingers who will exploit the people and sell off their resources to American oligarchs. If you listen carefully to the voices that are manipulating Trump in Ukraine, they want to topple Vladimir Putin. The NATO and EU leaders have stated that it is their goal to “break up Russia into tiny pieces.” LOL
Pretty much all of Silicon Valley is composed of high-tech companies that got their start from the CIA after Reagan. The CIA’s venture capital firm even funded these entities. Elon Musk’s mentor was the director of the CIA’s VC firm, In-Q-Tel, before moving over to NASA and bailing out Musk when he was about to lose all his businesses.
Trump is a frontman, and around 30 oligarchs gave millions to Trump’s ballroom. Not small players, but the top oligarchies in the country. Judd Legum has a good article about it:
https://popular.info/p/these-corporations-stopped-worrying?
Judd pasted one of Trump’s social media posts which was crying about the 2020 election being stolen. Trump said this about Biden: “Look what happened to our Country when a Crooked Moron became our “President!”
Talk about PROJECTION!!!
I suspect that the “stolen 2020 election” will be the motive for Trump extending his term in 2028, as Steve Bannon recently told us would happen. Democracy is just a facade for American Exceptionalism, which is also a con job. Neither of which exists. It makes for great speeches to the lower classes. 😉
We are indeed less likely to address the reasons the country has fallen into this autocratic nightmare and less likely to remedy the situation unless and until we are willing to face our own complicity in it. For decades the left has drifted away from the very people it purported to represent as it took more and more money from the exploiters of those people. And now we have NO PLAN!
Is it possible that we’ve already had a brief turn around?. Maybe Biden was it? We didn’t get to full blown autocracy, but we did get close enough to smell it.
Much of what Orange Jesus (OJ) has tried to do can be undone with Executive Orders. He certainly abused his authority there and many of his EOs wouldn’t stand any legal test, except possibly our current SCOTUS on the shadow docket.. Nonetheless we have to address all of them to assume the next guy doesn’t feel he can resurrect them.
Some things we’ll need to work years to reverse, and some, like his ballroom we have to live with.
The reasons he was elected TWICE!, obviously remain, and this embodying these reasons are energized because of this petulant infant. I am somewhat hopeful about the military, but only somewhat. SCOTUS is another story. When JFK was elected, some people worried, needlessly, that he might “Take orders from the Pope.” SCOTUS does not take them from the Pope, the majority seems to take them from their apparently narrow, and shared religious perspective. This is not good…I did not have to write just now.
There are too many people with one, or another, authoritarian leaning, in positions of power, out there, who will not stop working on that agenda, just because Trump will be gone. And they are, indisputably, more intelligent than this moron, thus, perhaps, more dangerous.
Last night, I attended the monthly Muncie Resists meeting. This issue kind of came up. The general sentiment last night is like your commentators here – we cannot return to the past. There seemed to me no historical precedent for what is happening here. What I could think of – South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission and Spain after Franco – did not warm the cockles of my heart. They papered over much of the preceding government’s misbehavior. The federal constitution needs amendment. I would like to see Supreme Court Justices impeached and removed, and term limits imposed; prosecutions for the ringleaders like Stephen Miller; the disentanglement of the media from the oligarchs; the removal of the gerrymander for Congress and proportional representation. But do we have the stomach to really change this country. It is true, we have always been oligarchic, but we have also deluded ourselves in believing ourselves superior to other countries and governments. The scariest and hardest thing to admit is that Trump is not wholly alien to this country. Finally, what worries me even more is that I keep expecting bloodshed – I remember Kent State as a kid – because one side refuses to give up power and the other side cannot live with the other side in power. I keep seeing Indiana when D.C. Stephenson and the Klan were running the state, when it may be 1860. Sorry, to be so gloomy this morning, and thank you for the space to vent.
Samuel, I have many of these same thoughts.
the euro area is also seeing a rise in rightwing moves. many under the guise of migrant issues, seeing the news media there focusing on the migrant crimes over the broader picture of white race crimes,or nationalists. the same is here in America. the overall pish against the so called liberal agenda, isnt. its a blaitant use of intimidation to the working class. though you want to blue state red state. this year people are going to get hungry,and cold in any state. the rise of profits and the wage reductions are now in affect. keeping the people upset about trivial matters as we see here,are a blaring magat phone to the working class over what matters. job losses will increase crime. make a noise if any minority moves counter to trumps agenda. the f b i has droped domestic terrorism fund to outside groups who kept the word out.SPLC as one. the ongoing shutdown forces a no info on the economy and where it compares to other world nations. take all this and its pushed into another crush to the working class. no one mentions in the news about wall streets gain except market place APM whereas they said the rich are spending big, without call about the reduction of spending by the working class, again, no focus on what is coming. leaked memos say trumps plan may see daylight i april2026 to call a war within America to justify a insurgency act being called. no elections,no more protests,and social media is now your worst nightmare. AI being used to gather and silo whos saying what.. again,the working class is the only casualty,as a whole. no one in 2025 is touching thenrich. now figure why san francisco was spared being iced? because they dont want to disturb this gentrified city of the rich. the rest of us can go to hell..
Whatever the future may bring, it comes down to what each of us is willing to do/sacrifice to keep the U.S. a representative democratic republic. The POWER OF ONE can move mountains and change the course of history if each one of those with even a tiny bit of power to act decides to use that power for common good. That common good includes them, all of us.
If we all just passively/fearfully/hopelessly remain frozen in mind and heart, then those without anything but lust for power will move to gain and keep it.
RESIST in any way you can, no matter how insignificant you may think it might be.
We need to find some Balance,
stop pushing so hard against some of the manic
areas< created to keep minds in angry outraged Republican mode.
Look for areas of commonality.
Little can be done about Trump. hope he paints himself in a corner or implodes.
I am certainly not about to “live with the Epstein Ballroom.” If there ever is another election, their first EO better be to tear down the ballroom. I posted this morning the recommendation from another journalist to tear it down and then auction off the pieces. What an incredible idea!!
The idea of “commonality” in this country will not come to pass as long as the right refuses to educate themselves, or they experience a divine spiritual experience that wakes them up. For instance, I had a MAGA woman comment on my post about Bannon saying Trump will be president in 2028. She said, “Why not and shared a Wikipedia page on FDR, saying that FDR served four terms so that Trump can serve three.” I’m pretty sure my response got me blocked, but I don’t care. The Stoics had little patience with ignorant people – me neither!
As for doing my own little bit I am hoping to buy less “stuff” and put more money into the community.
My mom and I are going to donate some food with all the cuts coming. Figure its the least we could do to help. Might do some volunteering as well if I can find something close to home.
Somethings that are unclear to me about those studies – which countries, with what history of being democratic. The US has over 200 years of existing as some form of imperfect democratic republic. Other nations may not make good comparisons.
What it will take to be stable is backbone. We need a no-nonsense overhaul of the Supreme Court, prosecution of everyone responsible in the MAGA administraion (Including Trump who is, I believe, only immune from official acts – arguably, illegal acts cannot be official), and immediate trust-busting of media.
Calls for “common ground” are wrong – what is the compromise with stripping all Latinos of their citizenship? or even killing 100 innocent people? I can’t find common ground with bigots.
“Returning to normalcy” was the mistake that we made last time. Every frivolous lawsuit over the election should have resulted in disbarment. The January 6 rioters should have had the book thrown at them, including Trump. Many former Illinois Governors have been put in prison. Ford let Nixon off. Perhaps we shouldn’t be so squeamish about jailing evil former Presidents.