When I saw that eight “rogue” Democrats had bowed to Republican demands to end the government shutdown without a firm agreement to restore the ACA subsidies, I was depressed. And angry. I also was clearly not alone–the pundits I follow were almost uniformly furious.
But then I read Jonathan Last’s analysis in the Bulwark, and felt much better.
Last argues that the very best outcome for Democrats would have been to force Republicans to give them something that would alter the structural balance of power– something like D.C. statehood or the full release of the Epstein files. The next best, he says, would have been getting rid of the filibuster, which would have required Republicans to vote on every unpopular Trump proposal and cleared the way for Democrats to enact sweeping reforms if and when they regain power. The third best outcome would have been to win a tactical concession–perhaps outlawing masks on ICE agents.
Instead, Democrats got the fourth best outcome: Democrats caved without any concessions–while raising the salience of a terrible issue for Republicans.
This is basically what happened. Republicans will allow an ACA subsidy vote in the future, that is meaningless because the House will not pass the bill—and even if it somehow passed, Trump wouldn’t sign it.
But capitulating without getting anything of substance isn’t the worst thing in the world. It preserves the status quo and the status quo is—as last week’s elections showed—good for Democrats.
Trump has plummeted in the polls as the shutdown has dragged on. But what would happen if the Democrats had gotten what they were holding out for–extension of the ACA subsidies and restoration of the Medicaid cuts. Slashing those subsidies and drastically cutting Medicaid were mean-spirited provisions that were central to Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
Last’s point is that such a “success” would have been a disaster for the Democrats, because it would have made Trump more popular.
The Democratic proposal was for Trump and Republicans to undo the most unpopular parts of their Big Beautiful Bill.
Had they succeeded, I am fairly certain that 2026 voters would not have given Democratic candidates credit for protecting them.
Why? Our COVID experience suggests that Americans have almost no capacity to grant credit for harms avoided.
Last reminds us that Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill created a political liability for him, because in order to keep GOP legislators onboard, he couldn’t enormously increase the deficit. He needed to include some cost-savings. In GOP land, the most politically palatable cuts are to other people’s health care.
The devil’s bargain Trump made with the BBB was that health insurance costs would rise dramatically for people covered by the ACA and health care access in rural areas would decrease as Medicaid was cut. These effects would be tangible for voters and would manifest months before the midterm elections….
The shutdown presented Trump with the opportunity to have his cake and eat it, too. Having given the holdout Republicans their health care cuts to pass the BBB, he could have undone those cuts as a “concession” to Democrats, thus nullifying their best issue for the 2026 campaign. Democrats would have had to sell voters on the idea that “Your healthcare costs would have gone up without us!”
Good luck with that.
It’s hard to argue with that analysis.
Democrats were doing what Democrats do–trying to avoid harm to the millions of Americans who will lose healthcare–or pay much, much more for it– thanks to Trump and his GOP sycophants. Would those Americans be grateful to the Democrats who saved them from those harms? Some undoubtedly would be–but, as Last contends, most wouldn’t. If the Democrats had won–if they’d forced GOP concessions on ACA subsidies and Medicaid, voters next November wouldn’t be experiencing a world of hurt, and Trump’s GOP would be the beneficiary of its absence.
Why didn’t Trump take this gigantic win? Because it would have meant laying down. He would have had to pretend that he’d been beaten and was capitulating to Chuck Schumer.
Trump’s obsession with strength and dominance simply would not permit that.
So where are we? Last says that– objectively speaking–Democrats emerge from the shutdown in a slightly better position than they entered it. They’ve damaged Trump politically. They’ve insured that health care costs will be a major issue in 2026.
The meaningless future vote on extending the ACA subsidies “will put Republican senators on the spot and create vulnerability for House Republicans when they refuse to take up the bill.”
I feel better. Unfortunately, a lot of Americans won’t…
A different view. A bit of light shining through this big, fat mess. Thanks for sharing this perspective.
My hope is that our two Senators will eventually be rebuked at the ballot box. Their callousness and cowardice, their utter disregard for their constituents, their disrespect for the Constitution should be answered by political losses.
We’ll see.
I doubt the ACA subsidies will even get past the magats in the senate, for trumps little johnson to have to deal with. Perhaps the best result is johnson will have to put in the new member. Epstein files
A few Democratics caving is understandable since “all politics is local” and hungry, desperate people of every political preference care more about eating today than open-ended parliamentary maneuvering.
That said, it’s incredibly annoying that Dems would cave on the heels of Tuesday’s validating sweep which, at my admittedly far remove, seemed ballot box validation of the Dem’s lengthy resistance.
What a massively horrible missed opportunity to kill the filibuster’s dysfunctional death grip on the Senate.
Greg, elect 61 Democratic Senators and the filibuster goes away.
Little Mikey won’t convene a House caucus for a while as he continues to squirm with the Epstein files. His defiance of the Constitution by not swearing in a duly-elected new member would land any Democrat in jail. Imagine the hue and cry if Pelosi, when speaker, refused to swear in a Republican electee. The diaper business in the House pharmacy would explode.
I can understand the dynamics of this strategy. It makes sense in the long view. All Americans will be impacted in some way by the BBB. Many of us can find a way to get basic needs met until change happens despite the strong sting it might inflict. But I wrestle with the real cost of this being placed on the backs of already struggling Americans who, at least for another 18 months, will likely not be able to access healthcare. The strategy seems morally fraught. I already know many working families who have market place insurance who will not be able to pay rent/ mortgage, buy groceries and medications, and have other basic necessities if they decide to try to hold on to health insurance. And so, they won’t. These costs will also be passed on to folks with commercial insurance, including retirees who have had the opportunity to carry forward private insurance from their employer as part of a retirement/pension package. To say nothing of increasing restrictions on requirements to access Medicaid, and Medicare costs rising. I fear the suffering will be more widespread than the impact of the shutdown. It won’t be as easily broadcast as airline accessibility and food shortages. We can and have found ways as a society to provide food to others in our communities, there are alternative methods of transportation-most recently highlighted by the pandemic. Our healthcare has no safety net. There is no way to ensure consistent access to healthcare, including life saving and health maintenance meds and treatments after the first of the year. It’s not a commodity for which we can easily find alternatives.
To make matters worse, Deborah, commercial insurance is not regulated by the federal government, so that they can deny applications from seniors because of their need for medical attention. They can also deny any claims that occur.
I read Last’s argument, and I’m still having issues with it. I need to do some research today to see who is funding these eight moderate Democrats. I know where Fetterman gets a substantial amount of money, but I need to check the other seven before I can form an opinion.
Why didn’t they save their districts the pain of a closed government by joining the Republicans to keep the government open two months ago? Did they intend to harm their constituents to prove a point? If so, they are no better than MAGA Republicans.
He may not accept the blame, but Schumer is the Senate Leader for the Democrats, and he’s been a consistent disaster for the Democrats under Trump. I support those calling for his resignation, even if it’s a performative gesture at best. Politics in Washington is a show, so we need to know who is pulling their strings. 😉
I have renewed my ACA health care insurance for next year. I have never qualified for a subsidy, so I have always paid full price. Last year I paid $900/month for a crummy high deductible “bronze” plan. Because of the shrinking pool of people signing up, the same plan is now $1174/month. so basically I am paying a Trump tax of $3300 next year.
It was clear this shutdown was about Trump inflicting pain. Johnson skillfully kept representatives out of sight but I hope enough people will remember the cowards were MIA next year.
Sigh….
The three No Kings demonstrations I attended showed a completely unified cohort of liberals opposed to our would-be monarch. That felt good, not because lockstep unity is good, but because of hanging out with so many people who share my values. It felt as good as being an American used to, with comfortable feelings about our monocultural society.
Apparently, though, that feel-good, diverse monocultural society did not suit the oligarchs’ view from their palaces of workers surviving collaboratively rather than being at each other’s throats, desperate for more than just their share.
That’s why they invested in division starting well before Rush Limbaugh polluted our airwaves.
We now have the broken country that oligarchs dreamed of, and they have what they wanted, untold wealth. What that resulted in, though, was the death of their golden goose.
Nope. Still pissed off. 7 million of us took to the streets in inventive, peaceful protest, yet Senate Dems couldn’t outsmart Trump and Johnson. Fie.
I heard similar analysis from others. Including the fact that the rest of the Democrats get to bitch and moan about the action, preserving their own constituencies. Maybe they are playing chess.
My guess is that all of those Senators are not up for re-election for 5 more years. A few are old enough that they may not even run for re-election in 2030.
The same can be said for the two Indiana Senators who can pretty much do whatever they want for the next 5 years, even federal illegal actions, without concern, due to pardons.
The 99% will suffer the painful consequence, maybe even die, to what end? More money in the oligarchs pockets? Probably. With deportations of brown people, the restrictions on new immigrants with preference to white South Africans, the exiting of the brightest among us to more secure occupations, who will be left to do the work for the billionaires? That right! The rest of us. 50 year mortgages are just the tip of the iceberg. A lifetime of servitude to the “company store”.
RESIST.
I just hope that Dems don’t bogged down in ponderous policy statements. I also pray they realize there are more than seven states They have an opportunity now to make real in roads in. red states, but the Dems in those states need money. Heads up DCCC!
I’m trying to maintain Obama’s “Audacity of Hope” that they have a Plan B due to expecting the House to reject and return their solution to the Shutdown. The chance of House Republicans remembering that “Obamacare” was posted as an insult to the ACA once it passed could come back to haunt them in Primary Elections when voters begin receiving their health care premiums in 2026.
The many posts on Facebook and political E-mails I have received reporting a 2.8% COLA on my 2026 Social Security check is not inspiring me to believing I will improve my economic situation because of the posts and E-mails stating that Medicare Part B will increase in 2026. I have already been notified by my IU Healthcare that they are dropping Medicare Part C which was my supplemental coverage so I will get hit from two directions.
Our greatest internal enemy today is SCOTUS who Trump goes whining to for protection from legal charges filed against him. Even MTG, once his staunchest supporter in the House, is speaking against some of his actions…he states she has “Lost her way” expecting him to concentrate on internal problems being his primary job, not ruling global issues. Is this a sign of MAGA rethinking his foundation as taking care of them to insure his third term campaign. If he can run for a third term; the logical opponent would be another third termer, President Barack Obama.
I can still dream; can’t I???
People will definitely die from the lack of access to medical care and hospitals will face dire financial consequences from the expense of treating uninsured people in their ER departments. Some hospitals may not be able to survive and that would create a lack of medical care access for insured people.
Holy crap that is one big steaming pile of intellectual self-masturbatory bullshit 💩 no wonder I gave up reading the Bulwark and their right wing commentators, especially that dude JVL, Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller. How anyone can see the Democrats caving to Republicans AGAIN as anything other than snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is beyond me. The so-called “logic” used in this argument is just laughable on its face and ridiculous in its premise, I’m so glad we already made plans to move out of this country because with feckless Democrats like that we are totally f’cked… I finally given up hope that any politicians in the US will ever do the right thing for the majority of American people
Interesting!
I am only surprised that this did not happen sooner. The surprise is that it lasted as long as it did. The Democrat Party is the big tent as they say, and there are many under that big top who could not longer stomach the potential suffering of the masses. I am glad that we have people like that in the party. Good for us.
I truly appreciate your shining a light on a slightly different view regarding ACA. I had not thought about it in this manner and I see where it can do more for the Democrats than holding fast at this moment. Thank you.
Politicians look to elections (and power), while everyday people suffer. There was probably no chance the ACA credits would ever have been extended. Is there any way Democrats can or could have alleviated the suffering of people relying on ACA and Medicaid? Could wealthy liberals start a fund for people struggling to afford health insurance and healthcare? In 2026, Democrats had better fight like hell for ordinary people, with smart, creative, concrete plans. Put forward strong candidates like Mamdani, Beshear, Spanberger, Shapiro, Pritzker, et al. Everywhere, including Indiana!!
Yes, Susan, I agree…and with Sheila too, of course. Avoiding knee-jerk reactions to give a matter serious thought is a good practice generally:-)
I can’t help but have something to say about this: “Our COVID experience suggests that Americans have almost no capacity to grant credit for harms avoided.” So true, like trying to prove a negative.
The issue remains, creating a view of Democrats trying to serve the best interests of Americans regarding health care coverage and cost and Republicans not caring about doing anything to disturb Trump (even when they know he is putting them in the crosshairs.) Going forward, Democrats will have the best hold on “affordability” as their cause; Trump can’t capture it, although he is trying but, I can’t see him pulling that off, no matter how effective he is in controlling the narrative.
Hardly a segue, but, had to add something else for Sheila to feel better about, and that is Warren Buffett’s concluding words in his letter to investors:
As he urges his investors to thank America for maximizing our opportunities, even though the country is “capricious and sometimes venal in distributing its rewards,” he observes: “Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the chairman. I wish all who read this a very happy Thanksgiving. Yes, even the jerks; it’s never too late to change.”
Well, Joe, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. Or maybe it should to remind you how afraid to fight you are. We fought two civil wars to preserve our republic and will probably have to fight a third. It may be less bloody, but the death toll will still be significant.
How would you like to be a single mother in rural North Dakota and have to travel 175 miles through driving snow to the nearest health care facility while you watch your child choke to death in the front seat because your F***ing Republicans don’t want to support health care for poor people?
Yeah, Joe. Go find a nice, comfortable ex-pat community somewhere and sip your Long Island Iced Tea while clucking (pun intended) about how gutless you think the people staying and fighting are.
Vietnam and Ecuador are great expat opportunities. 😉
I have mixed feeling, but one major point and some minor points.
Major – Trump is a psychopath and the suffering of others probably adds to his pleasure. He would have let the governments stay closed until he declares himself king in 2028 or 2026. The Republicans would not have dared to disagree. There would be no capitulation from Trump, who could never allow himself to be the “loser”.
Minor – Democrats actually care about people starving and not having health insurance. Trump would have messed with people’s plans to travel to their relatives for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Small retail businesses that rely on Christmas sales for their livelihood could go under with Federal employees going without paychecks and no SNAP (beyond actual malnutrition/starvation). Christmas packages might be delivered late. Trump would keep siphoning funds for whatever he wants, Congress or no Congress.
At least the Democrats kept the government shut down until they could plaster Trump’s party at the polls.
Seems like a long-term strategy to strengthen Democrats in the long run. Opening government, paying federal employees, and getting airports up and running full capacity before the Holiday travel surge are positives. The house will be called back, and the Epstein files can be made front and center again and seen as a Republican coverup that it is. The elections last Tuesday as a bellwether gave the Democrats the strength to take a short-term hit, for a lot more negative issues to blame Republicans/Maga/trump for during the midterms.
Dick Durbin from Illinois is the minority whip in the senate and was quiet about the so-called defectors.
In the meantime, people will have to endure increasing health insurance rates that many won’t be able to afford. That fact will greatly increase the load on Emergency Rooms and Med Checks. Those facilities will be overwhelmed. and the blame will be squarely on the Republicans.