Playing the Odds

My post a few days back ignited a pretty lively discussion of climate change. But here’s what I don’t understand: let’s say the science is far less compelling than I think it actually is. Let’s say it’s 50/50, rather than 98/2. It would still make sense to take steps to ameliorate it.

There are zero negatives to cleaning up the environment. No downsides–even if we are wrong. For our efforts we get an investment in cleaner air and water, and we create a lot of new jobs. On the other hand, if we do nothing and climate change continues at its current pace, we face increasing numbers of disasters–hurricanes, tsunamis, rising sea levels…Aside from the human suffering such effects would cause, they will require massive outlays of money and other resources–far more than an investment in green energy and environmentally-friendly technologies.

I understand why those with a financial stake in coal, oil and other pollutants are advocating that we ignore the science. But wouldn’t good policy require that we play the odds, even if they were far less lopsided than they are?

If you lived beneath a volcano and were told it only had a 50-50 chance of erupting, would you keep your family there?

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The Accountability Conundrum

IUPUI’s Spring semester started yesterday. Mid-day, I convened 42 undergraduates, and last night faced 19 graduate students. As with all new classes, some students show promise and others not so much. Time will tell.

An interesting exchange in my graduate Law and Public Affairs class raised a question that has nagged at me since: I had asked the class to describe the differences they would expect to see between the behavior of public officials serving in an autocratic regime and those serving in a democratic one. How would the nature of the regime affect the practice of public service? A student suggested that accountability would be different–that in liberal democratic regimes like our own, public administrators are accountable to the people; in an autocratic system, accountability runs up the bureaucratic chain of command.

It was a good answer. In theory, he is exactly right. But in practice, the increasingly complex and technocratic nature of our government is making a mockery of genuine accountability in multiple arenas.

Take utility regulation. After I discussed the issues surrounding the coal gasification project in Southern Indiana, Grant Smith, Senior Energy Policy Advisor for the Civil Society Institute, wrote the following:

As Indiana enters the 2013 legislative session, the influence of the investor-owned gas and electric utility companies looms large.  Not that they didn’t have influence before.  Whether the Democrats or Republicans have control of the Indiana House (the Indiana Senate was gerrymandered into a permanent Republican stronghold long ago), utility companies and their friends in the coal industry (namely, Peabody Energy) dominate the discussion.

Their lobbyists walk with swagger and always seem unusually relaxed in the heat of the session.  They are able to reflect this air of serenity because they are enabled.  They are enabled by state regulators at the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission as well as many legislators on both sides of the aisle.

The legislature has failed to pass pro-ratepayer legislation on behalf of residential and business customers for 30 years.  The sad thing is that the one bill passed to avoid another power plant boondoggle, i.e. another Marble Hill (nuclear) power plant debacle that occurred in the early 1980s, has been rendered useless through administrative fiat.  The deal, thirty years ago, was that electric utilities had to prove that a plant was needed and to provide least cost service.  Our regulators eviscerated that part of the statute by interpreting the statute on behalf of electric utilities.  To them, least cost means that utilities must only review but not implement least cost options.  If the statute were interpreted as originally intended, we wouldn’t be dealing with the scandal of Duke Energy’s Edwardsport coal gasification plant.  It certainly is not needed in an era of very low projected electric demand and at $3.5 billion and counting obviously not the least cost option to provide service.

It’s absolutely amazing that since the passage of the certificate of need law mentioned above that the IURC has never denied a power plant on its own volition. Never.  If a plant did not go forward, it’s been because the utility or the non-utility, power plant developer decided to pull the plug.  The Commission was wrong about Marble Hill – prior to passage of the law.  The lights, as claimed by Public Service Indiana (now Duke), did not go out because the plant wasn’t built.  The additional unit at Northern Indiana Public Service Company’s (NIPSCO’s) Shahfer coal plant was not needed.  NIPSCO’s been over-built for years.  The Commission even continued to approve merchant power plants (in the wake of deregulation of electric wholesale markets) when it was obvious that the bottom had fallen out of the market.  Many of the plants that were built barely ran for years or were sold for pennies on the dollar.  Nearly 100 billion dollars were lost nationwide by the industry.  Utilities whose subsidiaries built merchant plants not tied to their captive rate base rushed to get regulators to put them in the rate base, as Indiana regulators did on behalf of Cinergy (now Duke) at its subsidiary’s CinCAP VII Plant in Henry County.  And with electric demand projected well under 1% for years to come, cheap energy efficiency measures and mature wind and solar technology whose costs continue to decline, Edwardsport was never needed.

 How can an institution with vast amounts of expertise and experienced staff inevitably be wrong?  It’s always wrong because the regulatory process is rigged.  The scandal surrounding Edwardsport and excellent reporting at the Indianapolis Star and Indianapolis Business Journal proved that.  The only reason that Duke is eating some of the costs of the plant is that they and the Commission were caught.

 What we need is more transparency at the IURC where regulators oversee more money than we pay in income taxes every year.  What we need is an elected Commission that is held accountable to the public and not working in the shadows behind closed doors in collusion with utility companies.

 As it happens, electric and gas utilities have systematically dismantled ratepayer protections at the legislature and before the Commission.  They have become monopolies with little to no business risk.  Their business plans and mistakes are dumped on ratepayers in the form of rate increases without the slightest pushback from either elected officials or regulators.  They are awarded incentives for what they should be doing anyway.  They are systematically throttling the promise of a strong renewables market in Indiana in favor of their obsolete coal plants and, with this strategy, maintaining a status quo that is expensive, dirty, and economically disastrous.

 This session they will be back with more risk-shifting legislation to relieve themselves of any business risk or management responsibility they may still face, with no thought to the burden they will impose on their customers.  With their captive ratepayers, captive legislators, and captive regulators, they will essentially become unregulated monopolies.  What a deal – for their stockholders.  What an injustice to the rest of us. And most likely without an opposing word from our regulators.

 The IURC is charged with balancing the interests of ratepayers and utility companies.  Such balance is regrettably nonexistent.  The Commissioners have lost sight of the law and their charge.  Many legislatures have been equally negligent, mandating their constituents unwillingly and sometimes unknowingly to rubber stamp utility malfeasance and incompetence.

I dare say that this is the situation in many jurisdictions in the US given the corporatization of government.

Now, I do not have the background to evaluate the particulars of this complaint. But that’s the point–few of us do.  References to “certificates of need” and the URC and the intricacies of the rules governing utility rates are at best unfamiliar territory to most of us, and at worst, Greek. How do we ensure accountability of this government agency? How do we know when it has been “captured” by those it ostensibly regulates?

How does the average citizen judge the merits of Grant Smith’s allegations, or the URC’s inevitable defense?

The same question applies to the EPA, the FCC, the FAA….to all of the federal and state agencies charged with regulating activities involving significant specialization and expertise.

Just how accountable is our “democratic” government, really?

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Two Different Worlds?

It has become commonplace to complain that Americans are living in different realities–to respond to statements or opinions that seem particularly bizarre with some version of Barney Frank’s famous line, “on what planet do you spend most of your time?” But what if that isn’t hyperbole? What if Red and Blue Americans really are occupying different worlds?

What if America is actually going through some sort of “virtual” replay of the civil war?

My husband and I eat breakfast at a local coffee shop most mornings with a friend who shares our political obsessions.  Yesterday, during a breakfast discussion about the embarrassing series of congressional fiascos that finally led to last minute legislation avoiding–or at least postponing–the fiscal cliff, my husband shook his head in wonder: as he noted, Congress had set this scenario up and thus seen it coming for at least 18 months during which it had done absolutely nothing. Why? It seemed incomprehensible.

Our friend offered his theory: The Republicans swept into office in 2010, convinced they would retake both the Senate and the White House in 2012. During the campaign, they continued to believe that Romney would win the election, and that they would then have the opportunity and power to fashion their own “fix” of the impending sequester, probably along the lines of the Ryan budget. When Romney lost, and the Senate became even more firmly Democratic, they were stunned. They hadn’t prepared for that eventuality, and they’re still trying to find their bearings.

In the aftermath, the party’s internal fissures have also become more pronounced. At this point, the GOP is like a fish out of water, flopping frantically this way and that on the floor.

I would dismiss my friend’s explanation as utterly fanciful if there were not so many emerging reports that support it. Somehow, despite all of the data and polling and anecdotal evidence to the contrary, despite Nate Silver, a significant number of Republican political figures managed to convince themselves that up was down, blue was red, and America would never re-elect that black guy, especially in a sour economy. When Obama won, they were genuinely shocked–and unprepared to participate in divided government.

I was still mulling over this increasingly plausible explanation when I got to the gym, climbed on the treadmill, and turned on the television. There was Chuck Todd in front of a chart showing the massive increase in the number of single-party states–states where one party or the other controls both houses of the legislature and the Governor’s mansion. (Indiana, as we know, is one of those states.) There are exceptions, but most of the Republican-dominated states are in the old South (i.e., the Confederacy); most of the Democratic-dominated states are in the Northeast and on the west coast.

Representatives elected from lopsidedly one-party states don’t worry about challenges from the opposing party; they worry about primaries. So the Republicans pander to the rabid rightwing base of their party, and the Democrats play to the intransigent left of theirs. As the number of “safe states” multiplies, so does the number of unyielding, uncompromising ideologues.

Even in the absence of that political calculus, however, when people come from an environment that is dominated by a particular political philosophy, it takes effort to seek out and understand competing points of view. Such environments reinforce those “bubbles” we create by our media habits and friendship choices. Pretty soon, other perspectives seem fanciful and/or deluded, and we lose our ability to function within them.

The question is, how do we engage in anything remotely like self-government under these circumstances?

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A Little-Noted Lesson from the Fiscal Cliff

Apparently, the country will be taking a leap off the so-called fiscal cliff, since–despite a flurry of last-minute activity and a vote by the Senate–midnight came and went without passing anything. (And even the Senate’s measure didn’t remotely resemble a “grand bargain.”)

For most of us, the tax consequences are likely to be short-term. Incredibly, a significant number of Representatives refused to vote in 2012 to terminate the Bush tax cuts for rich folks, but are perfectly willing to come back early in 2013 after the cuts have expired and vote to reinstate them just for the non-rich. Why is that, you might reasonably ask, when the result will be exactly the same? Because they can then tell their constituents they never voted for a tax increase. They evidently think the American public is really, really stupid–and we elected them, so maybe they’re right.

Then there’s the issue of spending cuts. If a larger deal cannot be negotiated, and the dreaded “sequester” goes into effect, we’re told that government spending will be sharply reduced. And that’s true–as far as it goes. But the nasty little secret is that government is no longer a word that describes…government. As in public sector employees and elected and appointed officials. After decades of privatization and contracting out, government is all of us and everywhere–defense contractors, civil engineers, social service agencies and other for-profits and nonprofits that depend upon government contracts to survive. The last analysis I saw–and it is now several years old–counted some eighteen million people working full-time at ostensibly private and nonprofit sector jobs that were wholly supported by our tax dollars.

Retrenchment in those government contracts–required by the sequester–will affect more than just those 18+ million people who are employed in what we might call the “quasi-government” sector. When the defense contractor loses his biggest customer, his suppliers lose theirs, and so on down the line. The economic contraction would be rapid and severe.

I say it “would be” because I believe that the reality of that outcome will quickly become apparent even to the less-than-brilliant policymakers in Congress. (Their constituents can be counted on to point it out, if they somehow don’t get it.) Call me Pollyanna, but I think we’ll see some sort of acceptable-but-not-ideal agreement early in January.

Even if we evade economic disaster via fiscal cliff-diving, however, it may be worth pondering the largely unrecognized extent to which the private and nonprofit sectors are now part and parcel of that “bloated and wasteful” government we routinely excoriate, and the extent to which demands for cuts in “government spending” threaten to reduce our own incomes. That’s certainly not an argument for unrestrained spending; it is, however, an argument for recognizing economic reality and the extent to which “privatization”–which has increased, rather than reduced, the size of government–has made necessary spending cuts infinitely more difficult.

Happy New Year.

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It’s Us

The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars,
But in ourselves…

Shakespeare penned those words; Nate Silver demonstrates their accuracy.

The increasing partisanship and polarization in Washington is making it more and more difficult to get anything meaningful done. The paralysis of government is real, and it is making all of us vulnerable–to economic recession, to climate change, to gun violence and all of the myriad challenges of contemporary social systems. Those in what Molly Ivins called the  “chattering classes,” the punditocracy, bewail this state of affairs, and insist that the American public not only deserves better but deeply disapproves of this ideological rigidity.

Nate Silver begs to differ.

in a recent post for the New York Times, Silver demonstrates that the gridlock in Washington mirrors our own polarization. As recently as 1992, there were 103 swing Congressional districts; this year, there were 35. At the same time, the number of “landslide” districts doubled, from 123 to 242. As a result, most members of Congress now come from “hyperpartisan” districts where they face no general election threat. Any re-election challenge will come in a primary; in other words, Democrats must protect their left flanks, Republicans their right. As Silver notes, House members have little incentive to move toward the middle. Compromise with the other party simply makes them vulnerable to a primary challenge.

I have written about the pernicious effect of “safe” districts before, but I have generally assumed them to be the product of redistricting–gerrymandering. But Silver says the effect persists even if we ignore redistricting. He underscores what Bill Bishop reported in The Big Sort: people are voting with their feet, moving to areas they find congenial. The result is that Democrats are crammed into urban areas, and Republicans populate more rural districts. The result of that is the dilution of Democratic votes: in this year’s election, Democrats won the national popular vote by one point–an 8 point shift in their favor from 2010. But they gained only 8 House seats out of 435.

The results of these population patterns disadvantages Democrats by making continued control of the House by Republicans likely (absent a “wave” election), but it holds an even more serious threat to Republicans. As Silver points out, although individual Republican House members have little incentive to compromise, there are risks to the party if they fail to do so. Individual House members come from districts that reward them for being intractable, but that intransigence and hyper-partisanship make it increasingly difficult for the GOP to win either the Senate or the White House.

It seems appropriate, given how dysfunctional our government has become, to devolve from Shakespeare to Laurel and Hardy:  this is certainly a fine kettle of fish we’ve gotten ourselves into!

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