A New Year

I’ve long since abandoned the practice of partying on New Year’s Eve. For the past several years, my husband and I haven’t even made it to midnight to welcome the turnover to a new, as-yet-unspoiled year.

But that lack of a proper welcome doesn’t mean that the turn of the calendar page goes unnoticed or that it lacks significance. Actually, for us older folks with grandchildren in their early adulthoods, the portents are especially significant. What will the coming year tell us about the world those grandchildren will have to navigate?

For what it’s worth, I think the year 2024 is likely to be pivotal for the United States–and thus for the world order.

I know that we tend to see whatever it is we look for, and I’ll admit up front that I’m looking for good omens. Those omens are out there–offsetting, to some extent, the dark clouds of hate and fear that dominate the news cycle. The bad omens remain “front and center”–wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the growth of populism worldwide and Christian Nationalism at home, the ability of a handful of Congressional buffoons to paralyze the federal government, and over it all, the persistent warming of the planet and the multiple threats to human civilization posed by climate change.

Then there’s the inconceivable (to me) persistence of support for a moronic, narcissistic madman–coupled with an equally mystifying lack of appreciation for a President who will go down in history (assuming we have a history) as a leader as consequential as FDR.

I’m not ignoring the storm clouds.

But history develops in cycles, and the transition from one cycle to another is typically chaotic and difficult. Various academic studies peg those social cycles at anything between 40 and 80 years. In the US, the last truly monumental social upheaval occurred in the tumultuous Sixties, triggering a reaction that elected Ronald Reagan and devotion to trickle-down economics, and winked at racism and other forms of bigotry and tribalism.

The Internet came along and connected all the malcontents–both those who found modernity, with its multiple ambiguities, unbearable, but also those of us who welcomed it. The Internet destroyed local newspapers, and provided us with the ability to choose the news we wanted to believe, adding to the chaos of social change.

Among the positive omens is the fact that local news is rebounding across the country.

The international effort to combat climate change is moving more slowly than we might like, but more substantively than we had any right to expect in an ever-quarreling world. There are fewer and fewer people who dispute the reality of climate change, and encouraging scientific and technological breakthroughs aimed at ameliorating it.

Medical science continues to advance. People are alive today who would never have made it to their current ages but for those advances, and efforts to stamp out historically devastating diseases in poorer countries are succeeding. (The refusal of ideologically-motivated, scientifically-ignorant individuals to be vaccinated against a pandemic was unfortunate for those individuals and their families, but has likely improved the health–and perhaps the genome– of the overall population.)

And there are multiple signs that a majority of Americans reject the racism and antisemitism and misogyny that still garner headlines. It’s true that the minority of haters is a lot larger than I would have guessed a few years ago, and they are certainly more active. But they are a minority.

Think about it: the demonstrations after the murder of George Floyd were multi-racial. The “Karen” memes on social media and the sharing and shaming of racist incidents captured by those ubiquitous phone cameras are evidence of widespread disapproval of bigotry. Increases in inter-racial and inter-religious marriages (and I would add, the rise of the “nones”) are signs of weakened barriers between members of the human family. Add too, majority approval of same-sex marriage, and the overwhelmingly negative reaction to the (unbelievably paternalistic) Dobbs decision.

The fact that calling a proposal “socialist” is no longer sufficient to defeat it, and the rise of new economic theories challenging free-market absolutism are signs of a growing recognition that–as I used to tell my students–issues are complicated and finding correct answers depends on facts and context.

There’s more, but here’s the thing: the upcoming year will be pivotal. It will tell us whether a determined minority, empowered by gerrymandering and unencumbered by intellect or ethics, will strip women of autonomy, put gays back in the closet, and return Blacks and Jews to second-class status.

My New Year’s Resolution is simple: I intend to work my butt off to defeat the White Nationalist cult that has taken over what used to be my political party.

I hope you’ll join me.

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How Hateful Can They Be?

Here’s a “what-if.” What if orphans with serious medical problems–say asthma or epilepsy–were intentionally placed with foster or adoptive parents who were devout Christian Scientists or Jehovah’s Witnesses? Parents who would “pray away” attacks rather than provide medical care? What if a federal law required those doing the placements to ignore such parental beliefs on the basis of “religious freedom”? What if refusal to place a seriously ill child with a family that rejected medical science was considered “discrimination”?

I think–I certainly hope–most rational people would be appalled. 

Of course, Indiana Congressman Jim Banks is a culture warrior, not a rational person.

A Republican congressman has proposed a bill to prevent child welfare agencies from turning away prospective foster and adoptive parents who refuse to recognize transgender and nonbinary children’s identities.

U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) introduced the bill earlier this month in response to a proposed rule from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

The rule would require child welfare agencies to place LGBTQ-identifying children in homes where they will not be mistreated or abused due to their sexual orientation or gender identity. 

Caregivers for LGBTQ children would be required to receive training on how to provide for any unique needs those youth may have because of their identity.

Banks calls the rule discriminatory. He says it’s unfair to the “loving prospective parents who do not support the idea of transgender identity or who oppose homosexuality based on their religious beliefs.”

Yes, I can just imagine how “loving” those families would be to a child already struggling with both an absence of birth parents and thorny identity issues. Why not place Jewish children with “loving” Neo-Nazi families, or Black children with “loving” racists?

What the hell is wrong with these people?

Banks has instead proposed the Sensible Adoption for Every Home Act (SAFE), which would ensure that families that are headed by parents who hold anti-LGBTQ views are not rejected as foster parents. It would enforce that by prohibiting placement agencies that refuse to place LGBTQ children with otherwise qualified couples from receiving federal funds.

Even though social transition does not necessarily involve medical interventions, Banks — like many Republicans pushing anti-transgender legislation — equates affirmation with pursuing surgical and hormonal treatments.

His bill also seeks to protect parents who oppose psychological treatments or counseling for trans-identifying children, or refuse to use gender-affirming pronouns, from being discriminated against by placement agencies. 

Banks has company. Eighteen Attorneys General (all Republicans, of course) have signed a letter opposing the rule. And of course, the GOP’s rank hypocrisy is once again front and center.

As much as Republicans claim it’s unfair to discriminate against non-affirming parents, 13 states currently have laws that allow placement agencies to reject same-sex couples, single or unmarried parents, older opposite-sex couples, interfaith couples, and other prospective parents based on their purported religious beliefs.

I guess it’s okay to discriminate against people if the”sincerely held religious beliefs” of Republican lawmakers require legislating disapproval of those people. 

I have previously described Jim Banks as a Christian Nationalist’s wet dream. The remainder of the linked article supports that (admittedly unkind but arguably accurate) description.

In Congress, Banks has amassed a record that is hostile to LGBTQ rights.

He previously co-introduced a bill to allow adults who experience “regret” after undergoing transition-related treatments as youth to sue their former doctors.

He introduced another bill earlier this year, in conjunction with Sen. Marco Rubio, seeking to ban transgender individuals from serving in the U.S. military.

Last year, Banks submitted a discharge petition to force a vote on a bill to bar transgender women and girls from participating in female-designated sports. 

Banks was also previously banned from Twitter, prior to Elon Musk’s takeover of the platform, for deliberately misgendering Adm. Rachel Levine, the country’s first transgender four-star admiral with the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps and the Assistant Secretary of Health at HHS.

This is the culture warrior who wants to be Indiana’s next U.S. Senator.

I recently became aware of a PAC established by several of Banks’ current constituents; it’s called the Hoosiers for Common Sense PAC and its “primary goal is to elect a common-sense Hoosier Democrat, Marc Carmichael, and prevent Jim Banks from advancing to the US Senate.” You can contribute here. 

Or you can contribute at Marc Carmichael’s website. Among his other eminently sensible positions, Carmichael wants to put an end to demonizing trans children for political advantage. It’s hard to disagree with his statement that harming innocent children in an effort to garner votes is simply beyond the pale.

Way beyond.

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Economic Propaganda

I will be the first to admit that my knowledge of economics is incredibly superficial. (Perhaps I’m being defensive, but I suspect that “superficial”–or even “non-existent” also describes the technical economic expertise of most of my fellow Americans.)

As I previously explained, my recent reading about Modern Monetary Theory was prompted by the gift of a book on the subject; that book then triggered some additional research. (Calling my google searches “research” might be a misnomer…) At any rate, I found an essay from The American Prospect to be both interesting and “on point.”

The article was authored by Nick Hanauer, whose ability to explain matters in accessible and understandable terms has made him one of my favorite economic pundits.

If the basic foundation of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is that it is most closely based upon reality–upon the way that American monetary and fiscal systems actually work–the Prospect article provides additional evidence that far too many pundits and economists continue to assess policy using economic frameworks that are no longer accurate.

As the subhead says, “The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.”

The article focuses upon six myths that continue to muddy the waters of economic analysis.

Americans have been hammered for decades with an economic message that amounts to this: When wealthy people like me gain even more wealth through tax cuts, deregulation, and policies that keep wages low, that leads to economic growth and benefits for everyone else in the economy. And equally, that investing in you, raising your wages, forgiving your debt, or helping your family would be bad—for you! This is the trickle-down way of thinking about economic cause and effect, and there can be no doubt that it has substantially contributed to the greatest upward transfer of wealth in the history of the world.

You would think that trying to sell such a disastrous outcome for the broad mass of citizens would be incredibly unpopular. No politician would outright say they want to shrink the middle class, make it harder to get by, or reward hard work less. No politician would outright say that rich people should get richer, while everyone else struggles to make a decent life.

But this message has been hidden under the confusing, technical-sounding, and often impenetrable language of economics. Many academic economists do important work trying to understand and improve the world. But most citizens’ experience of economics comes from hearing a story—a narrative that rationalizes who gets what and why. The people who benefit from trickle-down policy the most have deployed economists to work their magic to tell this story, and explain why there is no alternative to its scientific certitude.

Hanauer points out that no economic model can fully reflect the “extraordinary complexity of human markets.” Models are intended to provide decision-makers with a sense–an overview– of the likely impacts of a particular policy proposal. But the assumptions upon which these models are based will determine their predictions. In other words, if the assumptions are wrong, the models will also be wrong.

And these models are deeply and consistently wrong…The problem is that few people take the time to explain what these faulty assumptions are, why they all promote the worldview of the rich and powerful, and why they shouldn’t be treated as science but as a trickle-down fantasyland.

Hanauer proceeds to explain–at length, and in language that non-experts can understand– what is wrong with six of those underlying assumptions:

  • public investments will “crowd out” private investment, and are by definition less productive than private investments.
  • workers’ wages are a direct reflection of their productivity.
  • higher taxes on corporations and high-income people reduce growth and investment.
  • investing in poor people reduces economic activity, and that immigrants are less productive than domestic American workers.
  • ten-year budget horizons are adequate for analysis.
  • performance is measured by looking at GDP and revenue– rather than overall well-being.

As Hanauer concludes:

Until we build models that reflect how the economy really grows, our leaders and the media should eye models from mainstream economists with skepticism. Models trying to convey the effects of policy should reflect the basic understanding that when more people have more money, that’s good for business. We need models that understand the basic principle that when the economy grows from the middle out, that’s good for everyone, and when more people participate in the economy, their consumer demand drives job creation and sparks innovation. In other words, our economic models must reflect the world as it really is—not as it was portrayed in the trickle-down Econ 101 classrooms of the 20th century.

All available evidence supports living in the world as it really is.

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Testing Economic Theory

A couple of weeks ago, after speaking to a group at North United Methodist Church, I was approached by a couple who handed me a book and accompanying materials on Modern Monetary Theory. I explained that economics is definitely not one of my strong suits–far, far from it– but they insisted that the book, a New York Times bestseller titled The Deficit Myth, written by economist Stephanie Kelton–was clear and accessible.

So I took the book, and I read it. All the way through. And I found it very persuasive.

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) begins with an undeniable fact: government budgets in countries with sovereign control over their currencies are very different from household budgets.  Not all countries have “sovereign control”–in the EU, for example, countries that have adopted the Euro cannot issue currency. They are “users” not issuers, and thus are constrained in much the same way as our household budgets are.

The United States, however, is not. Our government is not revenue-constrained in the same way as our households or our businesses. That doesn’t mean there are no constraints; it just means the constraints are different. As the book persuasively argued, budget hawks and public officials wringing their hands over the size of the budget deficit are still operating under economic paradigms that were appropriate when we were on the gold standard (and/or Bretton Woods), but the country today operates within a very different fiscal reality, one that requires that we change our previous assumptions.

MMT doesn’t dispense with fiscal responsibility; it redefines what responsible behavior looks like.

MMT advocates argue that the government can use its currency-issuing power to guarantee full employment, as it can fund necessary public sector jobs during economic downturns without worrying about running out of money. Governments can use fiscal policy more effectively to stimulate demand and support economic growth. MMT emphasizes the importance of managing real resources (labor, materials, technology) rather than focusing on budgetary ones.

The real constraint on government spending, according to MMT, is inflation.

If government creates too much money, it can fuel a speculative bubble; if it creates too little, it promotes stagnation. Taxation thus becomes an important tool–both for controlling aggregate spending and for altering the distribution of wealth and income–i.e., addressing and reducing the gap between the rich and the rest. (As the author notes, it’s important to determine when taxes should be raised or lowered, and especially which ones and on whom.)

I obviously cannot reduce the book’s lengthy and lucid explanations to a blog post. I strongly encourage you to read the book, or other explanations of MMT. I will note, however, that there are a growing number of economists, many cited in the text, who have adopted MMT because it is based upon an accurate description of the way our current economy functions.

Something that wasn’t in the text, but occurred to me as I was reading, was that both FDR’s New Deal and Joe Biden’s “Bidenomics” appear to have adopted some of the major tenets of MMT, by using government spending to boost wages and employment. I know that many people attribute FDR’s economic successes to wartime anomalies, but the data on Biden’s flourishing economy cannot be so easily dismissed.

As Heather Cox Richardson recently reported:

Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released today showed inflation continuing to come down. In November the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index was 2.6% over the previous November, down from 2.9% in October. The Federal Reserve aims for 2%. Falling gas prices meant that overall, prices actually dropped in November for the first time since April 2020.

In a statement, President Joe Biden reminded Americans that “[a] year ago, most forecasters predicted it would require a spike in joblessness and a slowdown to get inflation down. I never believed that. I never gave up on the hard work, grit, and resilience of millions of Americans.” In addition to the falling inflation rate, he noted that “the unemployment rate has stayed below 4 percent for 22 months in a row, and wages, wealth, and the share of working-age Americans with jobs are higher now than they were before the pandemic began.” …

The administration is highlighting economic numbers not just because they are good—and they are: real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an astonishing annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023; under Trump it was 2.5% before the pandemic knocked the bottom out of everything—but also because they illustrate the administration’s return to an economic theory under which the U.S. government operated from 1933 to 1981.

Unfortunately, we have too many lawmakers and pundits who cling to outmoded paradigms even more fiercely in the face of empirical evidence to the contrary.

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When People Tell You Who They Are…

Let me begin a very distressing post by affirming my belief that there are still some Republicans who are good people, although their percentage is clearly dwindling. (Why good people remain Republican is something I have trouble understanding, but that’s a different issue.)

What has become very clear, however, is the descent of what was once a traditional right-of-center political party into a rabid, hateful, and thoroughly unAmerican cult. That descent is playing out right now in Iowa.

Permit Jake Tapper to share the evidence.

CNN anchor Jake Tapper was stunned by a poll published this month showing former President Donald Trump’s Nazi-echoing speeches about “poisoning the blood” and eliminating “vermin” from the U.S. overwhelmingly help him with Republicans in Iowa.

Trump is under fire once again — including from Tapper — after he delivered another Hitler-echoing rant at a rally in Durham, New Hampshire, on Saturday in which he accused several groups of non-White immigrants of “poisoning the blood of our country.”

But newly-released results from an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll — taken December 2-7, before the most recent speech — show those Hitler-esque speeches help him with Iowa GOP voters by nearly two-to-one.

The Des Moines Register polled Iowa voters, asking those it identified as likely Republican caucus-goers for their opinions about a candidate who said that immigrants “poison the blood of America.” Forty-two percent of Iowa Republicans said it would make them more likely to support that candidate. Only twenty-eight percent said it would make them less likely, and the remaining twenty-nice percent indicated that it would not matter to them.

So–forty-two percent of Iowa Republicans agreed with a message lifted verbatim from Hitler, and another twenty-nine percent did not find the message troubling, let alone disqualifying. Seventy-one percent of the Republican respondents either endorsed that vile message or were untroubled by it.

As one of the panel members on Tapper’s show put it,

Republican or Democrat, anybody who spent time in Iowa around the caucus knows the term Iowa nice. Iowa voters are the nicest people in the world. But what we’ve seen in the Trump era is that part of the Republican base is not so nice. And another part of the base, so you combine these two, anything that Donald Trump says they’ll just say, yes, give me more of that, whether they think about it or not. And what troubles me isn’t just the language that Trump uses, but if he’s using it and then wins, what is he going to do within that rhetoric?

What are the actions that follow the rhetoric? And that’s what gets us to a very, very un-American place.

Political scientists and pundits have traced the “sorting” of Americans into various categories: fundamentalists versus more mainstream religious folks, religious versus secular, urban versus rural, educated versus not, blue versus red…Perhaps a more relevant set of categories would be humane versus execrable.

What sorts of people think it is perfectly appropriate to refer to other human beings as “vermin”? What kind of person looks at would-be immigrants–often people enduring dangerous travels and trusting treacherous companions in an effort to flee intolerable situations so they can give their children a chance for a better life–and sees someone “poisoning the blood” of the “real Americans” whose ancestors, more often than not, made similar treks.

For that matter, what sort of  performative “Christian” posts a lengthy rant purported to be his  “Christmas message” focusing on “Crooked Joe Biden,” “Deranged Jack Smith,” and those who are “looking to destroy our once great USA” and ending with “MAY THEY ROT IN HELL.” (Caps in original.)

And a Merry Christmas to you, too.

Reasonable people of good will can disagree about immigration law. They can draw different conclusions about how to handle the mess at the nation’s southern border. People of good will can debate the optimum number of people to be admitted to this country, and the proper bases for admitting them or turning them away.

But Republicans who agree that these desperate people are “vermin,” who think it is appropriate to accuse them of “poisoning the blood of Americans” are most definitely not people of good will. They are the raw material from which Storm Troopers are fashioned.

A week or so ago, a reader reminded me that it was Maya Angelou who counseled “when someone tells you who they are, believe them.”

The GOP is telling us who they are, and what that once “Grand Old Party” has become. Believe them.

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