Media Fragmentation And Minority Voters

I know I keep harping on the subject of our media environment, but as more research becomes available, I become more and more convinced that an enormous amount of political and voting behavior is the result of the fragmentation facilitated by the Internet–a fragmentation enabling people to occupy a chosen bubble of “news” that reinforces their ideological beliefs and prejudices.

The Washington Post recently ran a lengthy article that probed the much-discussed rightward movement within minority communities. 

That phenomenon in recent U.S. elections has mirrored voter movements elsewhere, and the research was an effort to determine whether those movements had causal commonalities. The scholarship cited was all interesting, and I encourage you to click through and read it in its entirely, but one conclusion stood out. The article noted that Trump’s inroads into the Black and Hispanic communities was tied to the nature of the media sources those voters consulted.

The declining influence of television news, for example, has been stark. As the article noted, Democrats have always done well with U.S. minorities who follow political news on television, and they still won 73 percent of those voters in 2024. But their support among those who didn’t follow the election on TV was only 46 percent.

And, for perhaps the first time, the share of Americans following the presidential election on TV began to fall in 2024. It dropped from 85 percent to 81 percent. We don’t know what’s replacing it, though we do know that the share who got political news on TikTok soared from 22 percent in 2020 to 33 percent in 2024 — and that TikTok is the only medium through which U.S. minorities were more likely to follow politics compared with Whites.

Similarly, a March poll from the Pew Research Center found that 30 percent of minority voters who supported Trump got at least some of their news from “The Joe Rogan Experience” — putting the Trump-endorsing podcast behind only Fox News in that group. (To be sure, other sources were also close enough to be within the margin of error, and Pew’s Elisa Shearer cautioned that our media choice can be an effect of our political views as much as it is a cause of them.)

Minority neighborhoods traditionally tended to coalesce around a given candidate when residents of those neighborhoods got their news from similar, predominantly mainstream, sources. But as the media environment has balkanized, the electorate has split into smaller and less predictable units.

Over the last decades, as culture war has consumed American politics, minority voters who are culturally conservative but economically liberal —a cohort that includes many working-class minorities and immigrants — have begun to base their votes on cultural issues rather than economic ones. That trend has been supercharged by what the article called the “algorithm-driven fragment of the media,” the social media platforms that turn cultural concerns into cultural outrage by constantly amplifying moral- or emotional-based messages, a practice that encourages user commitment to the platform. (Yes, follow the money…or in this case, the business model.)

As one scholar explained it,

“Social media can subtly shape people’s information diet because algorithms are attuned to what people are engaging with online…. “So if someone’s paying attention to content that leans a little more socially conservative, the algorithm will feed you more and more of that. And before you know it, you’re in an informational ecosystem that’s pretty different from what you’d see tuning into mainstream media.”

In other words, the dramatic changes we have experienced in our media environment have fostered ideological, educational and gender divides, splintering communities that were once defined first by racial or cultural identities.

I have no idea what can be done about the balkanization of the media. I am very afraid that we can’t put that genie back in the bottle– allowing government to determine the content of internet sites would be even more dangerous than today’s  environment of propaganda and disinformation. Fact-checking sites are only useful for people who care about facts, and that is an unfortunately small percentage of the population.

Perhaps legislation dictating what algorithms can and cannot do would avoid violating the First Amendment, but from where this digital novice sits, it’s unclear how such a law would be framed or how it could be enforced.

We live in a world where people who desperately want to believe clearly untrue things– that climate change is a myth, that vaccines cause autism, that “chemtrails” are poisoning us, that “woke-ism” is the reason they missed out on that promotion–can find confirmation of those beliefs in the Internet’s growing never-never land.

Members of minority communities aren’t exempt.

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More Insanity In The “Big Beautiful Bill”

When a piece of legislation is over 900 pages long, it shouldn’t surprise us to discover all kinds of “hidden” provisions that went unread and undiscovered even by the people elected to read and understand what they’re passing. (That includes Trump, of course–a man who evidently can’t read and quite clearly doesn’t understand anything beyond his own childish needs and impulses. Media sources have reported on his meeting with Republican legislators, during which he advised them not to touch Medicaid– totally unaware of what was in his “Beautiful” bill…)

Media outlets have varied widely in the adequacy of their coverage. Most have focused on the major elements of this abysmal legislation: the three trillion dollars plus it will add to the nation’s deficit, the largesse to plutocrats “paid for” by robbing millions of low and middle-income Americans of health care and food stamps, the gargantuan sums allocated to the creation of what can only be described as a Trump administration version of the Schutzstaffel, Hitler’s notorious SS.

Those elements are, admittedly, both the most prominent and most terrifying aspects of the bill, but the American Prospect recently highlighted ten lesser-known provisions that ranged from stupid to cruel.

File this one under “stupid.” The bill forces the states to shoulder more of the costs of the SNAP program. But when Lisa Murkowski negotiated a two-year exemption from cost-sharing for Alaska, the language of that provision exempted all states with an “erroneous payment rate” above 13.3 percent– language operating to exempt not just Alaska, but states with the ten highest error rates–and inadvertently incentivizing other states to increase waste and fraud in their programs.

The bill eliminates the $200 tax on gun silencers. Words fail.

Section 70309 allows municipalities to issue tax-exempt bonds to build spaceports. (I have no clue. Perhaps we’re closer to space travel that I thought?)

MAGA’s love of fossil fuels prompted a provision–inserted by Oklahoma’s Republican Senator Lankford– that eliminated taxes on oil drillers. The bill “includes an exemption for domestic oil and gas companies from the corporate alternative minimum tax, as long as they have intangible drilling and development costs.” Oil companies have lobbied consistently for this nice little loophole. (Climate change? Nah…just another scam like vaccinations…)

And speaking of the environment, the bill not only eviscerates President Biden’s climate program, it also provides vast subsidies to coal producers. As the article reports,

At least four million acres of federal land will be opened up to coal leasing, and the royalty rate will be cut from 12.5 percent to 8 percent. Incentivizing coal—the worst fossil fuel for the climate and also particulate pollution—in any way is bad, but Republicans are also literally subsidizing foreign steel companies in places like China, India, and Brazil, by making metallurgical coal eligible for “critical mineral” subsidies through 2030. This coal, which is used in blast furnaces to create steel, is mostly exported to poorer countries with fewer air pollution regulations. Sure enough, the coal doesn’t even have to be used domestically to get the subsidy.

Umn…how, exactly, does this make America great?

There’s much more: a $40 million appropriation to the National Endowment for the Humanities to build statues for a “Garden of Heroes” in Washington, D.C. (We don’t have money to feed children, but we do have money to build a “blood and soil” monument…); removal of limits on the ability of folks with pass-through income (think law partners or hedge fund managers), to take unlimited SALT deductions, giving rich people “yet another legal tax avoidance scheme, worth between $35 and $40 billion over the next decade.”

As policy analysts pore over the 900+ pages of this monstrosity, they will undoubtedly find more examples of pork for donors and lobbyists, funded by vicious cuts to programs for the needy. Meanwhile, the propaganda machine rolls on, with Republicans insisting that Medicaid recipients–the vast majority of whom are children, disabled and elderly–just need to get jobs. (As one FB response asked, “please send me a list of jobs that are available for Alzheimer patients.”) 92% of the rest already do have jobs.

Indiana’s two senators voted for this obscenity. Senator Jim Banks is a White Christian Nationalist and a fervent member of the MAGA cult; his vote was expected. Senator Todd Young, who might have been an effective lawmaker in a different party or time, and who clearly knows better, issued a statement that is gobsmacking in its dishonesty:

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will deliver the largest tax cut in history for working and middle-class Hoosiers, expand the child tax credit, spur new economic growth and job creation, and advance President Trump’s agenda.”

I don’t know how Senator Young sleeps at night….

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Tools

Accurate information is the most important tool at citizens’ disposal. We know that a functioning democracy requires an informed citizenry–meaning a citizenry in possession of factual information, not one misinformed by tribal propaganda. The centrality of reliable information to the democratic process explains the Trump administration’s efforts to destroy the institutions that provide that information: especially the legitimate media and the nation’s universities.

Contemporary Americans are confronting the very real threat of losing both our constitutional republic and our common sources of credible information. The thus-far unanswered question is what role our scattered and fragmented internet landscape will play in this ongoing drama. How many Americans will opt for visiting the numerous sites offering vetted and valuable data, and how many will choose to occupy the preferred “reality” offered by the equally numerous sites devoted to reinforcing their misconceptions and prejudices. 

And then there’s the “sixty-four thousand dollar” question, the one that keeps me up at night: when the inhabitants of a country occupy wildly different realities, when each of us can choose to inhabit a preferred political or social construct, is rational governance even possible? In such a world, is there even a We the People to be governed?

I don’t know the answers to those questions, but I do recognize the vast educational potential of the Internet. There are literally millions of sites that offer insights into the world we inhabit, sites that simply describe what we know about “what is.” Perhaps the continued development of AI will introduce some order to the Internet’s wildly fragmented sources of information,  misinformation and disinformation.

Who knows? Certainly not this elderly blogger….

That said, I recently stumbled across a fascinating website that triggered these observations.

MAP describes itself as “an independent, nonprofit think tank,” working to create a “thriving, inclusive, and equitable America where all people have a fair chance to pursue health and happiness, earn a living, take care of the ones they love, be safe in their communities, and participate in civic life.” It seeks to advance conversation and achieve policy change through the presentation of information based upon rigorous research and strong, collaborative partnerships.

MAP produces (duh!) maps. Democracy maps. Equality maps.

The democracy maps track the election laws and policies of each state, to create what the site describes as a “detailed roadmap of how states can optimize civic engagement and protect the security, integrity and independence of our elections.” The maps track more than 50 aspects of state election and voting laws, and make it easy to see which states are providing an environment protective of democracy, and which states are falling “woefully short.” It was fascinating to see the significant differences across the states in access to voting and the ability of citizens to mount referenda. Each state is awarded a “Democracy Tally”–based upon the number of laws and policies within the state that help create a secure and healthy election system. 

The site also tracks state-level equality for LGBTQ+ citizens. Those maps score the laws and policies affecting the gay community within each state– the laws affecting things like relationships, nondiscrimination, religious exemptions, LGBTQ youth, and access to health care, among others. (It will come as no surprise to Hoosiers that our state is one of the 17–representing 32% of the U.S. population– with the very lowest level of equality for our LGBTQ+ neighbors.) 

The site offers a wealth of information, and does so with easily understood graphics. It also has copious citations to academic and other resources, allowing any visitor to confirm the accuracy of the data provided. I really encourage you to click through and browse the informative maps and charts that paint a visual picture of America’s patchwork democratic and equality landscapes.

Every so often, I come across a website like this one that offers rigorously vetted and understandable information about a wide variety of subjects–everything from environmental analyses to medical breakthroughs to criminal justice trends. Other sites offer sweeping overviews of, or deep dives into, specific aspects of world history, of philosophical movements, of the development of the arts… We are the first generation to have this enormous trove of scholarship and information literally at our fingertips. 

We could use all that hard-won information to educate and inform ourselves, and to make the world a better place.  

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Democrats Govern; Republicans Rule

It’s so easy for sane Americans to focus on the horrible, terrible, cruel and unbelievably stupid things that MAGA Republicans are doing daily. A recent example is the devastation in Texas, where inadequate warnings in advance of the weather–a result partially attributable to massive employee cuts to the Weather Service– cost over 85 people their lives.

What is frustrating is that it was so foreseeable: When the mindless, reckless cuts were being made, Scientific American ran a story headlined “How Trump’s National Weather Service Cuts Could Cost Lives,” warning that “staff cuts at the National Weather Service that have been made by the Trump administration are a danger to public safety as tornadoes, hurricanes and heat loom this spring and summer.”

The GOP has given rational Americans so many targets at both the state and federal levels that there is an understandable tendency to spend our time pointing and complaining. But as the new Chair of the Indiana Democratic Party has reminded us, complaining neglects the most important story, which is that–unlike the GOP– Democrats understand the obligations of governing, and we need to remind voters that all Americans, not just wealthy White ones, do better when Democrats are in charge.

I agree, so I wrote the following:

What happens when Americans elect Democrats? People do better.

When Democrats are in charge, states like California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington raise the minimum wage to $15/hour or higher.

Democrats in Blue states act to protect health coverage (Washington State even created a public health insurance option—the only one in the country) and pass laws requiring paid family and medical leave.

Blue states—including Oregon, California, Washington, Colorado and New York—make it easier to vote, expanding early voting and passing election reforms like automatic voter registration and same day registration.

Democrats support public education, and Blue states like New York, California and Oregon offer tuition-free college programs.

Indiana’s neighbor, Illinois, is a good example of the difference between Democrats who govern for We the People and Republicans who govern for the donor class. This July, Illinois Governor Pritzker signed the state’s Prescription Drug Affordability Act, limiting unfair pricing practices and supporting independent pharmacies, along with four bills to help high school students afford college. In January, Pritzker signed a bill forbidding payment of less than minimum wage to disabled workers.

And the Republicans?

In Red Indiana, they’ve kept the minimum wage at 7.25 since 2009, when they grudgingly had to raise it to match the federal rate.

In Red Indiana, Republicans are throwing people off Medicaid using stricter eligibility checks, work requirements, and enrollment caps, erecting barriers that hurt the most vulnerable populations. 

Red States have made it harder for their citizens to vote– cutting early voting, requiring specific government-issued IDs, and throwing out ballots with minor errors. Polls in Red Indiana and Kentucky close at 6– earlier than any other state—making it harder for working people to cast ballots.

From education to gun safety, from climate and the environment, from education to worker protection, Democratic lawmakers work to make citizens’ lives better and fairer, while Republicans wage culture wars and make it harder for middle-class Americans to earn a decent living.

Which approach really makes America great?

Indiana’s neighbor, Illinois, is just one example of the difference between government for We the People and government for the donor class. Just this month, Governor Pritzker signed the state’s Prescription Drug Affordability Act, limiting unfair pricing practices and supporting independent pharmacies, along with four bills designed to help high school students get into and afford to pay for college in Illinois. In January, he signed a bill forbidding payment of less than minimum wage to disabled workers.

There’s much more.

From education to gun safety, from climate and the environment, from education to worker protection, Democratic lawmakers in Blue America are working to protect the right to vote and the right to fair treatment. Meanwhile, Republicans in Red America are rolling back their citizens’ rights, making it harder to vote and harder for middle-class Americans to earn a decent living.

Which approach really makes America great?

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The Guy In The Mirror

Welcome to what seems like a very bad dream…

Congressional Republicans have passed a spending bill that contradicts every principle that party has endorsed over the years.  Furthermore, it’s a measure that will disproportionately hurt their own voters–and we know that they are aware of that fact, because they carefully timed some of the bill’s most egregious elements, like the draconian cuts to Medicaid, to take effect after the midterms.

Those GOP “defenders of liberty” who sport “don’t tread on me” t-shirts and insist that the government lacked even the authority to require masks during a pandemic are nevertheless cool with providing massive new funding for ICE, whose masked thugs display a terrifying similarity to Germany’s SS.

The Republicans in Congress passed this monstrosity because they are in thrall to an ignorant buffoon with tacky taste and the vocabulary, intellect and emotional control of a developmently-delayed five-year-old.

It has become increasingly clear that on the ground, the MAGA movement is the reappearance of the old Confederacy. The voters who continue to support Trump are motivated by fear–fear of losing their status as the “real Americans,” fear that those “others” will actually manage to attain civic equality. But what can we say about the Senators and Representatives those voters sent to Washington? Some–like Indiana’s Jim Banks–are as ignorant and bigoted as those who voted for them, but it’s obvious that many others actually know better, actually realize that their submission to Trump is cowardly, and that they are rewarding the votes of their constituents by robbing them of the little security they have.

What explains those Senators and Representatives–those presumably “traditional” Republicans who talked endlessly about fiscal discipline and limited government, but who obediently bend the knee to a would-be autocrat who routinely trashes those principles?

A recent article by Jonathan Last in the Bulwark took a stab at answering that question. 

A sizable portion of elected Republicans hold on to a residual image of themselves as avatars of a green-eyeshade, business-first party that no longer exists. They’re like a middle-aged man standing in front of a mirror, sucking in his gut and smiling, imagining that he still looks pretty close to his college days.

It’s a lie they tell themselves.

The article raised an interesting question: why didn’t the Republicans just choose to have it both ways–extend the tax cuts for their deep-pocketed donors, but keep Medicaid funded, and just push the debt even higher. After all, they were willing to add over three trillion to that debt–why not just add another 930 billion, and avoid sticking it to their own voters?

This, finally, is the root of the problem. Some Republicans still view themselves as the good guys in the movie. They need to imagine that they’re on the side of the angels. That they are something other than what they’ve become. It’s the guy in the mirror, again.

Trump has no illusions. That is his strength. Some congressional Republicans are reluctant to embrace their roles as kleptocrats and pillagers. That is their weakness. And it’s why they haven’t said, “Fuck it. Let’s just spend all the money.”

Last reminds us that when things go wrong in a cult, no one blames the cult leader. (He points to an example, a MAGA-supporting man in detention due to Trump’s hardline immigration policies, who nevertheless blames the Biden administration for his arrest.)

When millions of Trump voters lose their Medicaid, they aren’t going to blame Trump, either. They’ll blame Congress.

And what does Donald Trump care if a bunch of Republican losers get tossed out of Congress? He has no use for congressional Republicans. He is an aspiring autocrat who rules by fiat. Passing legislation is not anywhere near his list of priorities. Whether or not the House and Senate are controlled by Republicans is of little importance to him.

All of which is why Trump’s party is about to stab millions of Trump-loving Republican voters in the back instead of just throwing more money at the problem.

Trump knows who he is, what he wants, and how to get it. His party, on the other hand, is a bunch of delusional sad sacks. Which is why he will win and they will lose. Again.

At least we can take some satisfaction from the prospect of those “delusional sad-sacks” looking in their mirrors and seeing a greying and flabby reality looking back.

I wonder if any of them will regret providing the Kool-Aid to the cult members who elected them…

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