Losing Control

I have a theory about why people are so agitated these days. I think it is because our daily lives have become too complicated–because it is increasingly impossible for any one person to truly understand–let alone master– the various social and scientific systems on which we increasingly rely.

Let’s be honest: how many of us really understand how the financial sector works? How government policy affects the Internet? The intricacies of tax or regulatory policies? Reading the current punditry about the Affordable Care Act leads inexorably to one conclusion–no one knows very much about medical practice, the healthcare industry or the ACA. Not to mention the construction of a website.

Technology is an increasingly important part of our everyday lives, but I know I’m not the only person who can’t fix my own car, and whose first and only response to a computer malfunction is to reboot.  Very few of us have the background or expertise to independently evaluate claims about climate change or the loss of biodiversity.

My programmable thermostat says its 69 degrees in my house. It feels colder, but who am I to argue with that sophisticated new piece of technology?

As the world around us gets more complicated, our discomfort over losing personal control of our lives increases. Different people react differently to this perception that we are at the mercy of systems beyond our ken or control: some simply “opt out,” become disengaged. (“My vote/participation makes no difference, so why bother?”) Others retreat into simplification and ideology. (“If government would just get out of the way/ if we lived by biblical principles/if parents would ban video games everything would be better.”)

As we lose control (or the illusion of control) over ever greater portions of our lives, we need to recognize what may be the most pressing issue posed by an ever-more complex modern society: the need to know who to trust.  How do we identify those who are truly expert and honest, those who are not spinning or denying or manufacturing evidence, those who are reliable interpreters of their particular disciplines?

It’s hard enough to find a trustworthy auto mechanic when you don’t really know how your car functions.

Right now, Americans don’t trust anyone. Not the media, not the government, not academics, not businesspeople. As a result, we can’t even agree on what our problems are, let alone agree on solutions.

When you don’t trust anyone, when you don’t know whose description of the world you inhabit is correct, that world becomes a very scary place.

We won’t regain a sense of control until we collectively decide who we can trust. I have no idea how we do that.

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If Evidence Mattered….

When I was researching my 2007 book, God and Country: America in Red and Blue, I came across surveys that asked clergy of various denominations about their economic policy preferences and beliefs. Not surprisingly, there was a split among Protestants between those who favored the “Social Gospel” and those we might think of as Social Darwinists.

What did surprise me was the discovery that the most conservative clergy viewed capitalism as the only economic system compatible with Christianity–as though Adam Smith’s “Hidden Hand” was another word for God.

Clergy aren’t the only folks whose economic beliefs have a whiff of religious ferver about them, of course. That’s what makes economic policy so tricky–ideology regularly trumps evidence. I thought about that when I read a recent article in the New York Times comparing economic performance of Wisconsin and Minnesota, states with similar histories, political cultures and weather.

In 2010, Wisconsin–as everyone who follows politics knows–elected Republican majorities in both houses of its legislature and Scott Walker (very rightwing protege of the Koch brothers) as Governor. Also in 2010, Minnesota elected Mark Dayton, described by the Times as one of the most progressive candidates for governor in the country, and in 2012 gave him a Democratic legislature to work with.

Minnesota raised taxes by 2.1 billion dollars, and introduced the fourth highest income tax bracket in the country. Wisconsin, under Walker, reduced taxes and spending, and attacked the collective bargaining rights of unions.

So–how have these states fared? According to the article, three years into Walker’s term, Wisconsin ranks 34th in the nation for job growth, well behind Minnesota, which has the fifth fastest-growing state economy. (Forbes ranks Minnesota as the 8th best state for business.) This is particularly noteworthy, since Minnesota’s economy was “subpar” under Dayton’s predecessor, Tim Pawlenty.

Dayton invested heavily in K-12 education and all-day kindergarden; Walker cut state funding of K-12 schools by more than 15%.

Dayton expanded Medicaid, and created a state insurance exchange that enrolled 90% of its first month’s target. Premiums in Minnesota are on average the lowest in the country. Walker refused to expand Medicaid or create an exchange, and as the Times reports, “The uninsured and ill bear the burden.”

Everything isn’t peachy in Minnesota, but it’s hard to ignore the difference in economic performance–not to mention quality of life–between the two approaches. It turns out that beating up on school teachers and other public servants while giving tax breaks to the wealthy doesn’t produce jobs or spur economic growth. It also turns out that raising taxes isn’t necessarily an economic kiss of death.

Not that evidence matters. There’s a reason we call it “blind faith.”

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Crime and the City

Our son Stephen is home from the Big Apple for Thanksgiving. He lives in a spiffy new high-rise on the west side of Manhattan, in a redeveloping neighborhood that I would have been afraid to walk in even ten years ago.

I don’t worry about his living in that neighborhood, however, because crime in New York has fallen steadily over the past couple of decades. You can quibble about the reasons (my son suggests it’s because poor people can no longer afford to live there; defenders of “stop and frisk” say it’s because racial profiling and willingness to ignore the civil liberties of minorities has worked), but whatever the reasons, the bottom line is that New York is 65.4% less dangerous to live in than Indianapolis.

According to Areavibes.com, “in New York, as compared to Indianapolis, IN you are: 40.5% less likely to get robbed, 45.6% less likely to get murdered, 81.8% less likely to get your car stolen.”

Last year, Indianapolis had 11.5 murders per 100,000 people. New York had 6.3. We had 52.2 rapes per 100,000; New York had 13.3. Etcetera.

I seem to recall Greg Ballard running for Mayor on the promise that he would make crime “Job One.”

I hope he’s doing better with whatever Job Two was…..

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Let’s Give Thanks…For Being “Unbiblical”

As Thanksgiving approaches, it is incumbent upon us to count our blessings, to remind ourselves of the multiple good things in our lives. (Complaining is far too easy these days, especially if you care at all about public policy and the state of the nation. )

A recent post to the Civic Literacy blog by Don Knebel makes a pretty compelling case for the proposition that a lack of “bible-based” lawmaking should top our list of gratitude-inducing items.

Most of us simply shrug off the constant drumbeat from the theocratic Right about our “secular” laws and the need to “return to biblical principles.” Don’s post demonstrates something I’ve long suspected: these pious frauds have no idea what most of those principles actually were or are. (My personal favorite from Don’s extensive list: Public execution by stoning would be required for “stubborn and rebellious” children.  Deuteronomy 21:18-21. If I’d only known….)

Click through for a truly edifying lesson in “bible law.”

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The Achilles Heel…aka Perils of Privatization

I have previously noted my skepticism of so-called “privatization” of public assets. (I say “so called” because we Americans use the term inaccurately, to mean “contracting out” for goods and services; genuine privatization would involve selling those assets off and letting them succeed or fail in the market.)

Note that the term I use is skepticism, not opposition. There are obviously times and tasks where contracting makes sense. My concern is that government isn’t a very good judge of when and what those are.

A recent post at the Urbanophile illustrates my point (albeit inadvertently). Aaron Renn was an enthusiastic supporter of the Toll Road lease, and an equally ardent opponent of the ill-considered Chicago and Indianapolis parking meter deals. In this post, he uses a considerable amount of data to make a perfectly reasonable point: the devil is in the contracting details. There are good deals and not such good deals.

My skepticism–and that of other critics of “privatization as panacea”–comes from the recognition that contracts with units of government are qualitatively different from contracts between private actors, and those differences make it far more likely that the contracts ultimately negotiated will be unfavorable to taxpayers.

Mayors and Governors who are considering privatization are operating under a different set of incentives than the corporate CEO who is charged with long-term profitability of his business. As the saying goes, long term to a politician means “until the next election.” Typically, the elected official is looking for immediate cash to relieve fiscal stress (and improve his immediate political prospects) and is much less concerned with the extended consequences of the transaction.

Furthermore–although it really pains me as a former Corporation Counsel to admit this–the lawyers who review these deals for government tend to be far less sophisticated than  lawyers acting on behalf of the contractors. That’s not, I hasten to say, because they aren’t good lawyers–many are. But the skills required to advise a municipality or state government aren’t generally the same skills as those whose emphasis is business transaction law.

In addition to the existence of unequal bargaining capacities, there is also—unfortunately—the potential for “crony capitalism,” the temptation to reward a campaign donor or political patron with a lucrative contract at taxpayer expense. (Can we spell Halliburton?)

Ideally, the media will act as a watchdog in these negotiations, alerting the public when a proposed contract is lopsided or otherwise unfavorable. But media has never been very good at providing this sort of scrutiny, because news organizations rarely employ business reporters able to analyze complex transactions. (In today’s media environment, of course, we’re lucky if we even know a deal is in the works.)

So-too often, government contracting pits an officeholder who is focused on short-term gratification and represented by a lawyer unfamiliar with the arcana of business contracting against a savvy contractor looking to lock in long-term advantage who is represented by an experienced lawyer-negotiator.  We shouldn’t be surprised when the resulting transaction is unfavorable to the taxpayer.

Is this lack of parity reason to eliminate government contracting? Of course not. But it is definitely reason to be cautious , and read the fine print, especially when an elected official is trumpeting the great deal s/he just made.

What’s that old saying? If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

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