RIP Pax America

It isn’t just the insane tariffs. They are just the coup de grace. As Lawrence Summers posted: the tariffs are to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy, or RFK thought is to vaccine science. In fact, it is likely that their effects will hasten the fall of our mad would-be king, as plutocrats join the millions of ordinary Americans appalled by the wholesale destruction of American governance and the world order. 

But the larger damage has been done, and it is not remediable.

Perhaps the most accurate–and damning–analysis was from The Bulwark.

We cannot overstate what has just happened. It took just 71 days for Donald Trump to wreck the American economy, mortally wound NATO, and destroy the American-led world order.

He did this with the enthusiastic support of the entire Republican party and conservative movement.

He did it with the support of a plurality of American voters.

He did not hide his intentions. He campaigned on them. He made them the central thrust of his election. He told Americans that he would betray our allies and give up our leadership position in the world.

And that is exactly what he’s done. The article quoted Canada’s Prime Minister’s sorrowful eulogy.

The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday. The system of global trade anchored on the United States, that Canada has relied on since the end of the Second World War—a system that, while not perfect, has helped to deliver prosperity for our country for decades—is over.

Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over.

The eighty-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership—when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect, and championed the free and open exchange of good and services—is over.

While this is a tragedy, it is also the new reality.

So–how did we get here?

Historians will undoubtedly spend decades looking for answers, and there are certainly lots of contributing factors: lack of civic education, an information environment that facilitates confirmation bias, the ballooning gap between the rich and the rest, the arrogance of the tech “bros”. But while all those elements contributed, my own research tells me that the single most consequential support for Trumpism is America’s entrenched racism.

When I use the word racism, I’m not simply referring to anti-Black animus, although that is indeed its most prominent characteristic. I am using that term to include the other persistent, notable bigotries that continue to be prominent elements of American society : anti-Semitism, raging misogyny…the simmering resentment that all too many Americans harbour for anyone they consider “Other.” 

As Trump and Musk have taken their hatchets to the federal government, they have made no effort to hide their major target: those Others. They have moved to expunge DEI, diversity and “woke-ism” from America’s society– “epithets” that are thinly veiled terms for civic equality and equal rights. 

A plurality of our fellow citizens cast their votes for a President and a political party devoted to White Christian supremacy. It’s doubtful that they intended to destroy Pax Americana, but placing America under a regime of know-nothings, bigots and buffoons could hardly have done otherwise. And as the linked article says, “There is no going back.”

If, tomorrow, Donald Trump revoked his entire regime of tariffs, it would not matter. It might temporarily delay some economic pain, but the rest of the world now understands that it must move forward without America.

If, tomorrow, Donald Trump abandoned his quest to annex Greenland and committed himself to the defense of Ukraine and the perpetuation of NATO, it would not matter. The free world now understands that its long-term security plans must be made with the understanding that America is a potential adversary, not an ally.

This realization may be painful for Americans. But we should know that the rest of the world understands us more clearly than we understand ourselves….

The article’s conclusion is depressing–but realistic.

We have a deeply stupid government—from our economically illiterate president to our craven and foolish secretary of state, from the freelancing billionaire dilettante who is gutting American soft power to the vaccine-denying health secretary who is firing as much talent as he can. From the senior economics advisor who thinks comic books are good investments, to the senators who voted to confirm this cabinet of hacks, to the representatives who stumble over themselves justifying each new inane MAGA pronouncement.

But also, we have the government we deserve.

The American age is over. And it ended because the American people were no longer worthy of it.

RIP.

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What The Fire Hose Obscures…

Perhaps the most disconcerting aspect of what has aptly been called the “firehose” of unconstitutional, illegal and profoundly stupid actions being taken by Trump and DOGE is the public’s corresponding inability to understand it all–to keep track of the assaults on the multiple responsibilities of government, and to recognize the immensity of the harms being done.

It’s all too easy to focus on the pettiness and bigotries–the erasures of the contributions of Blacks and women from official websites, the withdrawal of Secret Service protections from those on Trump’s extensive “enemies” list, the threats to law firms that represent people on that list…etc. etc. But while we are appalled by the lack of backbone being demonstrated by many of those targets (and all of the Republicans in Congress), we are missing less reported actions that are wreaking incalculable harms.

Last Sunday, the New York Times reported on one of those actions.

In a climate-controlled bunker in an unremarkable building in rural Aberdeen, Idaho, there are shelves upon shelves of meticulously labeled boxes of seed. This vault is home to many of the United States’ more than 62,000 genetically unique lines of wheat, collected over the past 127 years from around the world.

Though dormant, these seeds are alive. But unless they are continually cared for and periodically replanted, the lines will die, along with the millenniums of evolutionary history that they embody.

Since its establishment in 1898, the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Plant Germplasm System and the scientists who support it have systematically gathered and maintained the agricultural plant species that undergird our food system in vast collections such as the one in Aberdeen. The collections represent a towering achievement of foresight that food security depends on the availability of diverse plant genetic resources.

In mid-February, Trump administration officials at what has been labeled the Department of Government Efficiency fired some of the highly trained people who do this work. A court order has reinstated them, but it’s unclear when they will be allowed to resume their work. In the meantime, uncertainty around additional staffing and budget cuts, as well as the future of the collections themselves, reigns.

As the article notes, America’s food system relies on our ability to respond to the next plant disease or other emergent threat, and this little-known agency is essential to our preparedness. Across 22 stations maintained nationwide, 300 scientists maintain more than 600,000 genetic lines of more than 200 crop species.

The collections of some crops, like wheat, are in the form of seeds. But others, like apples (2,664 lines), must be maintained as living plants in the open field. The scientists who care for them must follow strict requirements for sustaining genetic purity so they can provide healthy viable seeds or plants to the tens of thousands of researchers and others who request them each year.

The article compares this activity to a survivalist cache. It represents a safeguard against all future challenges to growing the food we need. (You’d think a man with 13 children might care about the future of those children, if not the rest of the human race, but apparently not.)

Moving fast and breaking things may work in some sectors. But the disruptions underway threaten irreversible losses of crop genetic diversity. Such losses directly undermine the United States’ ability to ensure continued food security and dietary diversity amid challenges to our agricultural systems.

The word “irreversible” is chilling–and therein lies the challenge we face.

It isn’t just the fact that Americans have installed a collection of clowns and buffoons–in both the Oval Office and Congress– who lack any ability to govern, or even understand the purpose of government.  It isn’t their ham-handed efforts to erase evidence of diversity–much of which will be countered by  Internet sources. It isn’t even the mean-spiritedness of their attacks on disfavored “Others” (as one participant at a Town Hall put it, “what kind of people are only happy when they are hurting someone else?”). It’s the immense and irreversible damage that is being done, and the fact that the assaults are so widespread that we can’t keep track of them.

We can recover from the economic damage being done, although not without considerable pain as prices increase, tourism vanishes, and working Americans have fewer jobs and less disposable income. We will mourn the unnecessary deaths from vaccine misinformation, termination of medical research and drastic cuts to Medicaid, but the nation will survive those losses.

It’s the irreversible damage being done–to our international alliances, to food safety, to America’s promise of liberty and civi equality, and to who knows what else–that will forever mark this horrible juncture in our national story.

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Us Against The World

Before the shameful bullying session in the Oval Office, President Zelensky sent a memorandum to Trump, in which he detailed the numerous talks between Russia and Ukraine since 2014– talks that resulted in twenty cease-fire agreements, every one of which Russia violated. 

Sentient Americans–a category that excludes MAGA Republicans–know that Trump has absolutely no understanding of history or diplomacy, not to mention a lack of competence that those in his clown show of an administration clearly share. Consequently, the United States is going down the path of the British Empire, which was once a global power covering around a quarter of Earth’s land surface and ruling over 458 million people before it lost its dominance. Perhaps our own nation’s decline would have occurred in due course in any event, but the would-be autocrats busily demolishing our democracy have certainly accelerated the process.

A newsletter I receive (link unavailable) has reported on the reactions of our (former) allies to the embarrassing spectacle.

After Trump and Vance’s disgraceful Oval Office ambush of President Zelensky, major world players just came out to defend Ukraine and Zelensky:

– POLISH PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK: “Dear Zelensky, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone.”

– PRESIDENT OF LITHUANIA GITANAS NAUSEA: “Ukraine, you’ll never walk alone.”

– Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen: “Dear Zelensky, Denmark proudly stands with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.”

– FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUAL MACRON: “There is an aggressor: Russia. There is a people being aggressed: Ukraine. We were all right to help Ukraine and sanction Russia three years ago and to continue doing so. We, that’s the Americans, the Europeans, Canadians, Japanese, and many others… Because they are fighting for their dignity, their independence, for their children, and for the security of Europe.”

– PRESIDENT OF MOLDOVA MAIA SANDU: “The truth is simple. Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia is the aggressor. Ukraine defends its freedom—and ours. We stand with Ukraine.”

– SWEDISH PRIME MINISTER ULF KRISTERSSON: “Sweden stands with Ukraine. You are not only fighting for your freedom but also for all of Europe’s. Slava Ukraini! ”

– INCOMING GERMAN CHANCELLOR FRIEDRICH MER: “Dear Zelenskyy, we stand with Ukraine in good and in testing times. We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war.

– CROATIA’S PRIME MINISTER ANDREJ PLENKOVIĆ: “Croatia knows from its own experience that only a just peace can last. The Croatian Government stands firm in its belief that Ukraine needs such a peace – a peace that means sovereignty, territorial integrity, and a secure Europe.”

– FINLAND’S PRIME MINISTER PETTERI ORPO: “Finland and the Finnish people stand firmly with Ukraine. We will continue our unwavering support and work towards a just and lasting peace.”

– ESTONIAN PRIME MINISTER KRISTEN MICHAL: “We stand united with Zelenskyy and Ukraine in our fight for freedom. Always. Because it is right, not easy.”

– IRELAND’S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SIMON HARRIS: “Ukraine is not to blame for this war brought about by Russia’s illegal invasion. We stand with Ukraine.“

– LATVIA’S PRESIDENT EDGARS RINKEVICS: “Ukraine is a victim of the Russian aggression. It fights the war with the help from many friends and partners. We need to spare no effort for just and lasting peace. Latvia stands with Ukraine”

– PRIME MINISTER OF THE NETHERLANDS DICK SCHOOF: ”The Netherlands supports Ukraine as firmly as ever. Now more than ever. We want a lasting peace and an end to the war of aggression started by Russia. For Ukraine and its people, and for Europe.”

– PRIME MINISTER OF LUXEMBOURG LUC FRIEDSEN: “Luxembourg stands with Ukraine. You are fighting for your freedom and a rules based international order. ”

Trump and MAGA may live in an alternate reality, but Europe doesn’t.

Rational Americans are appalled by Trump and Vance’s fact-free, transactional assault on a country fighting for its democratic sovereignty. (In the wake of that embarrassing display of pro-Putin bullying, Vance took his family to Vermont to ski, where thousands of outraged protesters lined the streets, calling him a traitor and telling him to go ski in Russia.)

Republicans, however, continue to pander to Trump’s cult.

Indiana’s odious governor, Mike Braun, issued a statement characteristically at odds with reality, saying: “President Trump and Vice President Vance are showing the world what strong, accountable, America First leadership looks like.” Senators like Lindsay Graham are scrambling to adjust their beliefs to Trump’s fantasy world. (Graham’s old friend John McCain is undoubtedly spinning in his grave at Graham’s policy U-Turns.)

Today’s elected Republicans fall in one of two–and only two– camps: clueless/fanatic White Christian Nationalists and spineless sycophants.

When the megalomaniacs said they were going to “move fast and break things,” too few voters understood that what they were breaking was America.

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If you want to understand the disastrous budget Republicans are trying to pass–and the process they’ll need to negotiate to do that–I will be doing a Zoom interview of Economics Professor Denvil Duncan from 7:00 to 8:00 on Wednesday night, for the Central Indiana Indivisible chapter. You can register here.

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Words Fail

In a recent article titled “The New Rasputins,” , Anne Applebaum argued something I’ve long believed: the words “right” and “left” are not remotely accurate descriptors of the political world we currently inhabit. 

Believe it or not, I was long considered–and long considered myself–a conservative. During those years, the term was defined as someone concerned with fiscal prudence, respect for legal tradition and the rule of law, and for conserving the rights protected by the Bill of Rights. Fidelity to what used to be seen as conservative principles now label me “progressive” or “liberal” or–for MAGA folks–a “commie.”

As Applebaum correctly noted, “left” and “right” are outmoded descriptors of today’s GOP and Democrats. The GOP is currently a White Christian Nationalist cult with a corporatist (crony capitalist) economic agenda. The Democratic Party has been left with a nearly-impossible-to-corral amalgam of Americans ranging from center-right conservatives and former Republican “never Trumpers” to actual Leftists. And everyone in-between. We are experiencing the downside of a two-party system–it cannot function properly when one party goes off the rails.

The current misuse of terminology matters, because when language loses its connection to reality, political life is threatened. Authoritarianism thrives when the words citizens use are insufficient to convey an accurate meaning. Worse, when terminology is not just inadequate but misleading, we fail to recognize the reality we inhabit and the nature of the threats we face.

Applebaum’s point was expanded upon by Jennifer Rubin in the new publication Contrarian (link unavailable). 

Contrarian contributor Ruth Ben-Ghiat has written: “[A]uthoritarians turn language into a weapon, as well as emptying key words in the political life of a nation such as patriotism, honor, and freedom of meaning. We are well on our way in America to what I call the ‘upside-down world of authoritarianism,’ where the rule of law gives way to rule by the lawless; where those who take our rights away and jail us pose as protectors of freedom; where the thugs who assaulted the Capitol on Jan. 6 are turned into patriots; and where ‘leadership requires killing people,’ as Tucker Carlson recently put it, justifying Vladimir Putin’s killing of Alexei Navalny.”

 

We cannot accept MAGA terminology. Since an “executive order” denotes a proper, legal exercise of power, that term should certainly not be applied to President Trump’s cascade of executive pronouncements (most over-reaching and unconstitutional, others just meaningless). They may be “edicts” or ‘bogus decrees,” as historian Jonathan Alter noted in our recent Talking Feds podcast. But they do not dignify the term “executive order.”

“Pro-life,” is another example, in that it no way defines a movement that supports forced birth laws that kill women and have increased infant mortality. In the abortion arena, the right-wing comes up with non-words like “post-birth abortion”)to express fantastical charges. And while we are at it, “abortion ban” is not nearly descriptive enough. Laws robbing women of bodily autonomy and forcing them to go to term with a pregnancy should properly be called “forced birth.”

For years, the culture warriors of the GOP have used coded and inaccurate language to hide their true identity, which is anything but conservative. It is radical and reactionary, irredeemably racist and misogynistic. To label these people “conservative” is to deprive that term of all meaning.

Those of us who are appalled and terrified by the coming administration are constantly asking ourselves: “What can I do?” At the recent Hoosiers 4 Democracy rally, the “call to action” identified a number of organizations we can join and/or support. But there’s one thing everyone can do–even people unable to volunteer or donate: we can refuse to use inaccurate language. We can call fascism what it is.

And it sure isn’t “conservative.”

 
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Republican Lemmings

Lemmings are small rodents living in the Northern Hemisphere, primarily in the Arctic. They are known for large migrations– but mostly for a myth of their mass suicides, as large numbers follow their leaders off cliffs.

Today’s GOP is filled with the human variety of lemmings. We saw them emerge during the pandemic, as anti-science hysteria led to the rejection of mask wearing and vaccination.  Even after the pandemic, vaccination rates have continued to fall–and that decline has followed a partisan pattern.

There are two ways people can avoid vaccination. Families can get a religious or medical exemption from state laws requiring childhood vaccinations in order to send their children to public school. Or adults can simply fail to take advantage of vaccine availability. In states that voted for Donald Trump, the number of children receiving exemptions has increased.  Adult noncompliance rose in both blue and red states, but more in red states. 

Although states, not the federal government, set vaccine mandates, the incoming administration could encourage anti-vaccine sentiment and undermine state programs. Trump’s nominee RFK, Jr. would absolutely do so. He dismisses out of hand any studies that refute his beliefs. As the linked article notes,

He claims that the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine causes autism, despite more than a dozen studies performed in seven countries on three continents involving thousands of children showing that it doesn’t.

He has claimed that “there is no vaccine that is safe and effective.” (Childhood vaccines have prevented more than one million deaths and 32 million hospitalizations over the past three decades.) He has encouraged people not to vaccinate their babies: “I see somebody on a hiking trail carrying a little baby, I say to him, ‘Better not get him vaccinated.’”

When asked about the polio vaccine, Mr. Kennedy claimed that it caused an “explosion in soft tissue cancers” that killed “many, many, many, many, many more people than polio ever did.” Setting aside the fact that an “explosion in soft tissue cancers” hasn’t occurred, studies comparing children who received early batches of polio vaccines with unvaccinated children found no differences in cancer incidence. By 1979, paralytic polio was eliminated from the United States. When Mr. Kennedy says he wants vaccines to be better studied, what he really seems to be saying is he wants studies that confirm his fixed, immutable, science-resistant beliefs. 

The author of the article, a doctor who previously served at the FDA, explained that the panel authorizing vaccines is composed of actual “skeptics,” who require significant evidence of efficacy before approving them.

Vaccine skepticism is baked into the systems with which health experts monitor vaccines after they’re authorized for use. We know that clinical trials are not enough; we need to constantly ask questions and examine new data. That’s why we have surveillance systems that can detect problems too rare to be picked up in clinical trials. 

That ongoing surveillance allowed the FDA to discover that the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine caused dangerous clotting in about one in 250,000 people.

Detecting such risks allows us to weigh these rare harms against the enormous benefits of these vaccines.

Mr. Kennedy, on the other hand, has claimed that the Covid-19 vaccines, which have saved the lives of at least three million Americans, are “the deadliest vaccine ever made.”

Kennedy routinely misrepresents studies he cites and ignores data that doesn’t support his conclusions. And this is the person that Donald Trump has nominated to be Secretary of Health, presumably as a reward for Kennedy’s political support. 

In one sense, the nomination of JFK, Jr. is no different from Trump’s other choices, none of which have been even slightly based on the suitability of the nominee. Trump rather obviously sees these positions as rewards for loyalty–I rather doubt the notion of qualification has ever occurred to him. (After all, he himself is massively unqualified for the Presidency.–or for that matter, any responsible position.)

All of which brings us back to the issue of those Republican lemmings. At this point, it is more likely than not that this parade of clowns, misfits and ideologues will be confirmed by a Senate controlled by Republican invertebrates who value their own immediate political prospects far–far–above concerns for government competence and/or the common good. (And yes, Indiana’s Todd Young is one of them.)

 It isn’t very nice to point this out, but people who take Kennedy’s anti-vaccine delusions seriously are overwhelmingly MAGA crazies and Christian Nationalists, so–on the bright side– we might see a decline in the number who will survive to vote for GOP troglodytes. 

Meanwhile, sane Americans will watch as the lemmings go over the cliff. Unfortunately, they’ll take rational governance with them.

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