When People Have No Idea what They’re Doing

Simon Rosenberg recently explained what even minimally-informed people know: mass deportation–if it occurs– will raise prices for Americans, disrupt businesses and slow growth. (Of course, growth is already tanking as a result of Trump’s on-and-off tariffs. When even the Wall Street Journal calls a GOP economic policy “stupid,” you can pretty much assume widespread agreement among people who can spell “economics.”) Rosenberg noted that even the threat of deportations is having its effect; victims of crime and witnesses aren’t showing up for court dates because they are afraid ICE will seize them. “That means cases can’t be prosecuted and that means criminals stay free to commit more crimes. Party of law and order my sweet Aunt Annie.”

Speaking of “law and order,” there are reports that the administration is considering a pardon for Derek Chauvin, who killed George Floyd on camera. Such a pardon would be further evidence of the GOP effort to return the U.S. to the days of Jim Crow.

Let’s be candid. The daily havoc being applauded by Trump supporters demonstrates the profound ignorance of the MAGA cult–as does their rejection of expertise as “elitist,” and their inability to recognize the all-too-obvious effects of Trump/Musk actions.

Research confirms that the polarization that characterizes our politics is largely between the informed and uninformed. (For confirmation, you can review the occasional comment from trolls on this blog.) 

The monumental ignorance shown by those cheering Trump and Vance’s thuggish behavior toward Ukraine is a perfect example. In a recent post to The Bulwark, Jonathan Last wrote.

Donald Trump and Republicans explain their worldview by calling it “America First.” That’s a lie.

American foreign policy has always put America first. That’s what nations do. It’s axiomatic. Why did the United States do Lend-Lease with Britain before we entered World War II and bankroll the Marshall Plan afterwards? Why did we airlift supplies into West Berlin? Why did we spend trillions of dollars on nuclear weapons that have never been used? Why do we police the global shipping lanes and ensure stability in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East?

It’s not because we’re nice.

It’s because these actions further our interests. They make America safer and wealthier. They check the rise of rival powers. They put America first.

I urge you to read Last’s entire essay–especially his explanation of “Pax America.”  As he writes, for 75 years after the Second World War, the U.S. was the dominant global power. No country, anywhere on earth, could act without considering our interests.

The relationships in NATO, and among the Five Eyes, and with America’s other really close allies—Japan, South Korea—aren’t merely military agreements. They’re kinships. They transcend peace and war; they’re diplomatic, political, cultural, and economic.

Again: This is leverage. It means that when we go to war, we bring a huge crew with us. Other countries are willing to expend resources, and even shed blood, to stay aligned with us. Even for a contentious war like Iraq, we got nearly 40 countries to participate in some way or another.

This makes things cheaper for us. The Soviet Union and China and Iran have to spend money to dominate and subjugate their clients. Our allies spend money on our behalf, pursuing our interests, because we have shaped them in our image.

As Last writes, no country has ever been more globally dominant–and that dominance has largely been a function of our wealth–our ability to spend money.

Here is the thing you must understand: America will win any contest determined by the ability to spend money.

Rightly understood, this is just another example of how America created rules to benefit ourselves: Of course the richest country in history would build a system in which it could exert influence on the global order by spending money: Because the ability to spend money is one of our key advantages.

And yet today’s “America First” class thinks that spending money in order to shape the world is some kind of weakness…

Why do we spend $10 billion a year fighting HIV/AIDS in foreign countries? I have to keep saying this: It’s not because we’re nice.

We spend that money in order to stabilize the global order. If AIDS runs wild in one country, that creates ripple effects. It destabilizes the local economy, risking political instability, which in turn risks regional instability. All of which poses some small danger to the established order which—QED—benefits America.

We spend that $10 billion to preserve the system that benefits us.

That’s what soft power is.

When people in charge are clueless about how the world works, the world no longer works for us. Thanks, MAGA….

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Why Economic Ignorance Matters

America’s election of Donald Trump–horrifying and destructive as it was and is–was part of a global lurch to the Right, and that lurch can be attributed to one over-riding factor: a negative reaction to immigration. There are a lot of moving parts to that reaction, but I want to focus on one inarguable element of MAGA’s hatred of (certain) immigrants–a hatred that blinds the economically-ignorant to the predictable consequences of mass deportations.

Racism has always been the central part of Trump’s appeal, and his promises to “protect” the border have, accordingly, focused on the southern border. When he talks about limiting illegal immigration, it is quite clear that he is talking about poor brown and Black people, not the rich, or the stray Canadian or Norwegian.

The promised massive deportations have yet to occur, but early reports reflect two “Trumpian” realities: his disregard for legal and constitutional niceties, and his ignorance of the way the economy works. It isn’t just his love of tariffs that illustrates that ignorance; he clearly has no comprehension of the importance of both legal and illegal immigrants in selected sectors of the economy.

In his first few weeks back in office, Trump has consistently ignored the law, so it isn’t surprising that early “roundups” have frequently crossed the constitutional line. As Paul Krugman recently noted, “if you make it clear that respecting the rights of the accused is a liberal, DEI thing, of course some ICE and Border Control agents will run wild. Basically, anyone with brown skin will be at risk of at least temporary detention.”

And speaking of risk, even though the number of immigrants arrested is small so far, Krugman and others point out that  the raids that have occurred have already inspired widespread fear.  Some workers have stayed home rather than coming to work. Others have returned to their home countries. And some businesses have even laid off valuable employees for fear that they may be raided.

In the linked essay, Krugman offers charts documenting the likely economic impact of widespread deportations, beginning with the fact that almost 1 in 5 U.S. workers is foreign-born. Most of those are here legally, but unauthorized immigrants make up around 5 percent of the work force.

Losing a large fraction of these workers would be a serious blow to the economy, especially because immigrants, legal and not, play a much bigger role in some industries and occupations than they do in the economy as a whole.

Agriculture is the most striking example: Immigrants — many of them undocumented — make up most of the farm labor force.

Push those workers out, either by actual deportation or detention or simply by creating a climate of fear, and just watch what happens to grocery prices.

About a quarter of construction industry employees are immigrants — 40 percent in Texas and California — but this number rises to 31 percent if you look only at “construction trades,” i.e., people who actually build stuff as opposed to working in offices or marketing. And the immigrant share is much higher in particular trades.

So at a time when Americans are still angry about the price of groceries and, with more justification, about the unaffordability of housing, Trump’s immigrant crackdown seems set to hobble food production and home construction.

Krugman notes that Trump can probably call off most of his threatened tariffs, granting exemptions in return for concessions benefitting him personally, but his constant, ugly screeds against (certain) immigrants have played into racial hatreds that can’t easily be reined in.

I have previously posted about the gap between immigration facts and the fallacies that allow MAGA bigots to use migrants as a handy wedge issue. As I said then, if anyone harbors doubts about the GOP’s entirely political approach to what the media routinely calls the “border crisis,” it should have been dispelled when Republicans abruptly walked away from a bipartisan proposal that–after difficult negotiations–had given them pretty much everything they’d been demanding, so they could use the “border crisis” as a campaign issue.

And speaking of the border–most of the 11 million immigrants who are here illegally flew in and overstayed their visas.

America’s anti-immigrant hysteria is central to today’s White Christian Nationalism. Of course, there has always been a nativist streak in America; Ellis Island was first established to keep “undesirables” from entering the country. “Give me your tired, your poor, your masses yearning to breathe free” was Emma Lazarus’ response to the Chinese Exclusion Act. The Know-Nothing Party was formed largely by people who feared that Irish Catholic immigrants would take jobs from God-fearing Protestant “real Americans.”

We haven’t come very far, and MAGA wants to take us back……

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What MAGA Has Wrought

When Jennifer Rubin and Norman Eisen established The Contrarian, with the intent of keeping tabs on what was clearly going to be a rogue, anti-American administration, I immediately subscribed. (I know a lot of you really don’t want to know about the minutia of Trump/Musk’s assaults on the American Idea, but the publication is worthwhile–begin by just “skimming” if you can’t stomach the details.)

If you just want an overview, a recent article by Jennifer Rubin summed up the incredible amount of damage that these two ignoramuses–Trump and Musk–have done in just the first month of Trump II.

Rubin began by quoting Senator Maria Cantwell:

Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), the ranking member on the Senate Commerce Committee, called out the mindless slashing of vital government employees. “The FAA is already short 800 technicians and these firings inject unnecessary risk into the airspace—in the aftermath of four deadly crashes in the last month,” she said. Acting-president Elon Musk’s DOGE outfit cut 300 FAA employees.

Rubin proceeded to list just a few examples of the major damage being caused by indiscriminate firings undertaken by bozos who didn’t bother to figure out what tasks their targets actually performed or how essential those task might be.

  • Flying is arguably less safe and the risk of calamities is higher.
  • Food safety has degraded and the danger of food contamination is higher.
  • American predominance in science and medicine has been undercut, with the development of life-saving drugs slowed.
  • Farmers are losing income and market share, labs working on crop innovation are shutting down, and supply-chain businesses are facing layoffs. In short, American agriculture (not to mention our image and influence in the world) has become worse off.

As Rubin points out, these Muskovite cuts are not part of an actual reworking strategy.

These are not steps of a brilliant plan to modernize and improve performance. Mindlessly slashing government agencies impinges on the health and safety of all Americans, while the layoffs weaken our economy. (Government workers, of course, live and work throughout America, not just in D.C.) Moreover, Musk-Trump personnel cuts add to the unemployment rolls. Unless fired employees can instantaneously find comparable work, some will seek public assistance, while others will pay less in taxes, reduce purchases, and/or go further into debt….

I doubt many voted for Trump (none for Musk, certainly) because they wanted to increase aircraft accidents and food poisonings while holding back medical science—let alone because they wanted to increase unemployment and shrink the economy. But that is what they are getting—it’s what we’re all getting.

The GOP White House and the spineless Republican senators who confirmed unfit nominees, as well as House Republicans who have ceded the power of the purse to an unelected South African billionaire, own the results of their demolition of government.

This particular article preceded the unconscionable treason of Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine and his undermining of NATO.

In one short month, the administration installed by MAGA cultists has given Putin a victory he could never have won on a battlefield–he is winning a war with the United States without firing a shot.

The MAGA Americans who installed and support this neo-Nazi regime are motivated by one primary–and primal–emotion: racism. It’s past time to call it for what it is.

Trump voters who offer economic or other excuses for their votes are simply unwilling to admit that what really motivates their support is fear of losing White Christian privilege. They were willing to install this clown car of petty incompetents and grifters in return for promises to attack DEI programs and trans children.

If real Americans–those of us who value liberty and equality and the Constitution–fail to rise up, fail to reverse the carnage– future history books will record that America’s precipitous collapse was caused by the persistence of “racial grievance,” the bigotries that study after study have identified as central to the MAGA cult.

As Rubin notes, the “Pottery Barn rule” applies here: you broke it, you own it.

In the case of Musk, Trump, and the AWOL Republicans in Congress, they are responsible for the hopes, aspirations, problems, well-being, and lives of roughly 347M Americans. They may relish breaking government; they may revel in the nihilism. But all of this comes with a steep price. The Contrarian is unafraid to point out that wildly slashing government means Republicans own the airplane disasters, the E. Coli outbreaks, the cancelled medical trials, the excess unemployment, and the consequent damage done when competent people performing critical tasks are fired.

They will also own a world in which the United States has become a minor and unreliable global player.

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Let’s Talk About “Merit”

I don’t think anything has pissed me off more than Donald Trump’s insistence that DEI programs are just an effort to privilege “those people” (insert the object of your bias) over meritorious White guys. As a meme I’ve seen points out, that has it exactly backwards: DEI is an effort to level a very tilted playing field–an effort to combat the longstanding automatic preference given to White guys over more qualified women and minorities.

Study after study confirms that when identical resumes are sent to prospective employers by fictitious applicants–differing only in use of “white sounding” or “black sounding” names–the white sounding applicants get over twice as many interviews.

His pious defense of merit is especially ironic (to put it mildly)  when it is accompanied by Trump’s own incredibly unqualified nominees–a collection of cranks, clowns, conspiracy theorists and sycophants the likes of which no previous President has ever tried to elevate to positions of responsibility. As a friend has noted, in what was a massive understatement, “I’ve seen better cabinets at IKEA.”

For generations, American White guys–more accurately, straight White Christian males–have enjoyed a raft of entirely unmerited advantages.

I will grant that many of the DEI programs have proven to be less than effective, and some have suffered from a surfeit of what we used to call “political correctness.” But they aren’t being attacked for dubious efficacy. If there was any lingering doubt about the profound racism of Trump and MAGA, Trump’s immediate attacks on DEI efforts, and his race to scrub government websites of anything remotely “woke,” should erase it. (No one could ever accuse MAGA folks of being woke–a term that simply means that one has awakened to the existence of structural impediments to civic and economic fairness. They aren’t interested in being fair, or to rewarding individual merit found in women or members of minorities.)

The idea of an actual meritocracy is appealing. But a lot of what we attribute to “merit” is really a leg up, rooted in racial, religious or financial privilege.

The problems with America’s approach to meritocracy implicate–yet again–my two favorite admonitions: “it depends” and “it’s more complicated than that.” We are gradually and reluctantly coming to see, for example, that our definition of what constitutes merit in a given area is often too constricted, and our devices for measuring and determining what constitutes relevant merit may be inadequate.

When I was still teaching, I used to cite the example of an old rule (I’ve long since forgotten which southern state it was from) that restricted entry into local carpenters’ unions to high school graduates who weighed at least 180 pounds. Those requirements kept most Black and female applicants out–in that place at that time, few Blacks graduated from high school, and few women weighed over 180 pounds. The purported justification for the rule was that carpenters needed to be able to read construction plans and needed to be able to pick up at least X number of pounds of materials on the worksite.

But–rather obviously–the best way to determine whether applicants should be admitted to the carpentry trade would be to test them on their ability to read and understand plans and drawings, and to have them demonstrate that they could pick up the necessary weight.

The bottom line is that even seemingly neutral criteria can be–and frequently have been–manipulated so that they are not really neutral.

Those of us who’ve served on university admissions committees know that an applicant’s GPA and test results are necessary but incomplete indicators of whether that applicant will do the academic work required.  We also look for evidence of motivation and discipline.

The definition of merit in a given situation can be complicated. What skills are relevant? What evidence is probative?

One thing has already become obvious: Donald Trump’s criterion for “merit”– being a straight White Christian Nationalist loyal to Donald J. Trump–is inconsistent with the demands of the positions to be filled.

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Bigotry Unbounded

There is no longer any way to mask what MAGA is all about: Christian Nationalism, White Supremacy and the “othering” of anyone who isn’t a White “Christian” male. The persistent attacks on the Constitution are efforts to overcome legal impediments to the goal of returning White “Christian” men to social dominance. 

The evidence is everywhere.

The new Secretary of Defense, the unreconstructed (and thoroughly unqualified) Pete Hegseth, has ordered the military  to suspend all observances and/or recognition of the following holidays: Martin Luther King Jr. Birthday, Holocaust Remembrance Day, Black History Month, Juneteenth, Women’s Equality Day, National Hispanic Heritage Month, Pride Month, National Disability Employment Awareness Month, Asian American Pacific Islander Awareness Month, and American Indian Heritage Month.

He has also indicated his desire to revert military installations to their former Confederate names.

Incoming MAGA officials have wasted no time before eliminating all DEI–diversity, equity and inclusion–programs. Trump’s fire hose of Executive Orders has been matched in red states like Indiana, where incoming Governor Braun undoubtedly delighted his Christian Nationalist running mate Micah Beckwith by ridding Indiana government of any DEI efforts to combat years of discriminatory practices.

Some DEI efforts have arguably gone too far toward what we used to call “political correctness,” and research has suggested that they have been relatively unsuccessful in erasing bias. But it is impossible to ignore the message intentionally sent by their wholesale erasure.

My Christian friends (including several in the clergy) tell me that “Christian Nationalism” is many things, but Christian isn’t one of them. Wikipedia agrees.

Christian nationalism has been linked to prejudice towards minority groups. Christian nationalism has been loosely defined as a belief that “celebrate[s] and privilege[s] the sacred history, liberty, and rightful rule of white conservatives”.  Christian nationalism prioritizes an ethno-cultural, ethno-religious, and ethno-nationalist framing around fear of “the other”, those being immigrants, racial, and sexual minorities. Studies have associated Christian nationalism with xenophobia, homophobia, misogyny, political tolerance of racists, opposition to interracial unions, support for gun rights, pronatalism, and restricting the civil rights of those who fail to conform to traditional ideals of whiteness, citizenship, and Protestantism. The Christian nationalist belief system includes elements of patriarchy, white supremacy, nativism, and heteronormativity.  It has been associated with a “conquest narrative”, premillennial apocalypticism, and of frequent “rhetoric of blood, specifically, of blood sacrifice to an angry God”. 

MAGA evidences all of those elements.

Trump’s intemperate rage against immigration has always been directed against Black and Brown immigrants–those from “shithole” countries. Despite his rhetoric about expelling “criminal” immigrants, the recent ICE raids have swept up  undocumented people who had never committed any crime and people who are U.S. citizens.

MAGA’s war on women is in high gear. Christian Nationalists are determined to strip us of autonomy over our own bodies, and return us to a status subservient to–and ultimately dependent upon– males Having achieved their goal of overturning Roe v. Wade, they are now coming for birth control. In several states, Republican lawmakers are pushing to restrict access to birth control methods they claim are “really” abortifacients.

The escalating attacks on trans youth are part and parcel of MAGA homophobia. Given the broader culture’s about-face on LGBTQ rights generally, MAGA bigots have thus far focused on the tiny group of trans individuals who are less well understood.

And who can forget the rioters in Charlottesville– described as “fine people” by Donald Trump–who chanted “Jews will not replace us”? Or efforts to keep all Muslims out of the country?

Any and all efforts to move the American public beyond bigotry are met with claims that efforts to eradicate discrimination against any minority group really amounts to discrimination against White Christian men, and a retreat from “meritocracy.” Trump even blamed “DEI hires” for the recent plane crash–presumably, because “DEI hires” would be less competent than the pathetic assortment of unqualified clowns he has nominated.

Hegseth is an excellent example.

Lloyd Austin, Biden’s Secretary of Defense– a Black man– had a distinguished 41-year career in the U.S. Army, retiring as a four-star general. He held key positions, including Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, Commander of United States Forces – Iraq, and Commander of United States Central Command (CENTCOM). He was awarded the Silver Star for valor. Following his retirement from the military in 2016, he served on the boards of several companies, including Raytheon Technologies, Nucor, and Tenet Healthcare. 

Hegseth did serve briefly in the Army. He subsequently was fired from two nonprofit organizations for mismanagement, and became a Fox News host. Aside from those “accomplishments,” he faced credible accusations about extreme drunkenness and wife-beating. He also reportedly sports White Supremacist tattoos.

But hey! He’s a White “Christian” male, so obviously superior to the Black guy.

Welcome to MAGA world.

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