The Monsters In The Closet

There’s a difference between real monsters and imaginary ones. A recent essay in Lincoln Square made that point–and the further, not-so-obvious point that expending our energies fighting fictitious ones may be less unproductive than we think.

The essay began with the author explaining that he’d gotten a little girl to sleep by pretending to overpower the monsters that–in her imagination–populated her closet. As he wrote, politics works similarly. The monsters may not be real, but they’ll control the process until someone confronts them.

Every election cycle has its own bedtime story. This last one, the 2024 showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, was no different. It was a close race, and Trump won it on the margins — those tight, swingy counties where a few thousand votes make democracy feel like a coin toss.

And once again, MAGA’s favorite bedtime story was about the monster in the closet. This time, it wasn’t immigrants or caravans or Critical Race Theory — it was transgender Americans.

Anti-transgender political ads flooded the airwaves, built on the same fear-based architecture Republicans have been refining since Nixon. Trump’s campaign made them a centerpiece, hammering the claim that trans athletes were destroying women’s sports and sneaking into bathrooms to terrorize little girls.

The Democrats didn’t waste much time and effort on pushing back, because the party’s polling suggested that relatively few Americans were swayed by these attacks. But as the author noted, Trump didn’t need very many. He didn’t even need 51%. He needed just enough voters to enable him to flip three counties.

As the author wrote, “That’s the Southern Strategy 2.0: Rebrand hate as “common sense,” then sell it as protection.”

In our digital age, lies can become immortal. As some wag has put it, a lie will go halfway around the world while truth is still putting on its pants. In the Wild West that is our current information environment, truth is increasingly irrelevant; repetition is what matters. In the 2024 election, those millions of dollars in targeted anti-trans messaging weren’t intended to move a majority — “just enough voters in just the right ZIP codes.”

The essay puts this strategy in historical context, finding its roots in Nixon’s Southern Strategy. That strategy has now evolved. As the author put it, the dog whistles have become baked into our reflexes. He quoted the strategy’s “prime mover,” Lee Atwater:

 “You start out in 1954 by saying n****, n*****, n*****,”* he said. “By 1968, you can’t say n**** — that hurts you. It backfires. So you start saying stuff like ‘forced busing,’ ‘states’ rights,’ and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract now that you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things, and the byproduct of them is that Blacks get hurt worse than whites.”*

That wasn’t a slip. It was a strategy. The racism didn’t disappear; it just learned better grammar.

If America’s current political polarization proves anything, it reminds us of the human tribal reflex to divide the world into us and them. Political strategists know that in today’s environment, the use of certain words will trigger predictable responses, and those responses aren’t reasoned — they’re conditioned. “Once fear bonds a group together, logic doesn’t even get a seat at the table.”

The essay argues that Democrats haven’t figured out how to respond to that reality, haven’t recognized that they need to confront political fears, no matter how ridiculous or imaginary those fears may seem, before they metastasize. The monster in the closet doesn’t disappear when you ignore him.

I find that argument persuasive.

What the essay doesn’t tell us, however, is just how the Democrats–and others who see the strategic use of “Othering” for what it is–are supposed to defeat it. In our current information environment, those most likely to be convinced that the monsters are real typically get their “news” from sources that confirm the existence of the monsters in the closet and the threat they pose. In order to evaluate the validity of a proposition, citizens need to hear contending perspectives–and we inhabit a world where millions of people have purposely insulated themselves against evidence that is contrary to their preferred beliefs.

There will always be some percentage of voters who feel the need for someone or something to blame for life’s disappointments, and those voters are perfect targets for the political strategists trying to convince them of the existential threat posed by the monsters in the closet.

I don’t know how we counter that, but we really need to figure it out.

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It’s Not Just a Card–It’s the Whole Deck

Speaking of the “race card”….

As Donald Trump has continued his march toward the Republican nomination, pundits and political historians alike have tried to explain his emergence. One of the most cogent of those explanations appeared in the Guardian, in a lengthy, well-researched article tracing the trajectory of racism and political calculation in the United States.

After describing the events leading up to the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, the article referenced Lyndon Johnson’s well-known quote:

“I think we just gave the south to the Republicans,” he told his staff after ramming the Civil Rights Act of 1964 through Congress. His aide Bill Moyers recalled the moment in more drastic terms: Johnson feared he had delivered the south to Republicans “for your lifetime and mine”, a prediction whose proof, while not yet conclusive – we are happy that Mr Moyers is still with us – has trended ever since toward prophecy.

Fast-forward to Nixon, and the “southern strategy.”

What was needed was white backlash with a kinder, gentler face. Years later, the Republican strategist Lee Atwater, by then an operative in the Reagan White House, would explain the essence of the “southern strategy” to an academic researcher:

You start out in 1954 by saying ‘nigger, nigger, nigger’. By 1968, you can’t say ‘nigger’ – that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced bussing, states’ rights and all that stuff. You’re getting so abstract now you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I’m not saying that. But I’m saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me – because obviously sitting around saying ‘We want to cut this’ is much more abstract than even the bussing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than ‘nigger, nigger’.

The article details how Nixon refined the strategy and Reagan perfected it. It also describes  the way in which the GOP “establishment” used that racism to distract from a more plutocratic agenda–engaging in a “bait and switch” operation that won elections and then ignored the base that delivered those victories.

Enter Donald Trump.

While the other Republican contenders keep their xenophobia within the bounds of acceptably cruel political discourse, Trump blows it out: his racist rants play like full-fledged operas compared to the dog-whistle stuff, shredding the finely honed code that’s worked so long and so well for the GOP establishment. But that’s why the base loves him; he feels their rage.

Paul Krugman has an abbreviated version of that same history in a recent New York Times column.

How does a party in thrall to a basically unpopular ideology — or at any rate an ideology voters would dislike if they knew more about it — win elections? Obfuscation helps. But demagogy and appeals to tribalism help more. Racial dog whistles and suggestions that Democrats are un-American if not active traitors aren’t things that happen now and then, they’re an integral part of Republican political strategy.

Krugman takes up where the Guardian leaves off, and completes the history of the southern strategy.

During the Obama years Republican leaders cranked the volume on that strategy up to 11 (although it was pretty bad during the Clinton years too.) Establishment Republicans generally avoided saying in so many words that the president was a Kenyan Islamic atheist socialist friend of terrorists — although as the quote from Mr. Rubio shows, they came pretty close — but they tacitly encouraged those who did, and accepted their endorsements. And now they’re paying the price.

For the underlying assumption behind the establishment strategy was that voters could be fooled again and again: persuaded to vote Republican out of rage against Those People, then ignored after the election while the party pursued its true, plutocrat-friendly priorities. Now comes Mr. Trump, turning the dog whistles into fully audible shouting, and telling the base that it can have the bait without the switch. And the establishment is being destroyed by the monster it created.

If we’re lucky, America won’t be destroyed in the process.

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