I keep encountering people who share with me their (agonized) conviction that Trump will be re-elected. Admittedly, it’s a fear that keeps me up at night–despite my life-long belief that most Americans are good, sensible people, and despite consistent polling that shows a majority of citizens disapprove of him.
It isn’t an entirely unreasonable fear; thanks to the Electoral College, gerrymandering, vote suppression, Russian bots and the various electoral games at which the GOP excels, it can happen. The strength of turnout in November by voters determined to “vote blue no matter who” will tell us whether today’s optimism or pessimism is justified.
That said, I recently became aware of some polling that should cheer us up.
Stan Greenberg is a longtime Democratic pollster, and he predicts both massive turnout and a massive defeat for Trump and for the GOP generally. A column in the Los Angeles Times reports the basis for his optimism.
The columnist begins by conceding the possibilities for defeat: maybe the Democrats will self-destruct at their convention, for example.
Maybe vote suppression by Republicans will succeed. Maybe Tulsi Gabbard will run as a third-party candidate and draw enough votes in a few key states to give the election to Trump. Maybe Trump will lose the popular vote by millions — again — but squeak through in the electoral college by a few thousand.
Despite those possibilities, the column notes that Trump has done nothing to expand his base–and cites Greenberg and others for data showing that the GOP’s base is considerably smaller than that of the Democrats.
Almost half of registered voters (48%) say they are certain they will vote against Trump, while only a third (34%) say they are certain they will vote for him.
The Democratic strategist and pollster Stan Greenberg has a whole book about why Trump will lose (with the great title R.I.P. G.O.P.). He asked voters in a 2016 election day poll whether they could handle an unexpected expense of $500. A majority of unmarried women said they could not. They are unlikely to agree with Trump’s claims about his tax cut benefiting everybody, and unmarried women make up a quarter of the potential electorate.
On many of the issues Americans care most about, Trump is consistently on the wrong side. An increasing majority of people, as Greenberg points out, believe “immigration benefits our country,” up from 50% in 2016 to 65% today. An increasing majority — now more than 60% — believe that the government should play a bigger role in addressing our problems, especially in healthcare. Free college tuition and a wealth tax have widespread support.
But what about the Electoral College? Hillary Clinton was ahead in all the national polls, and won nationally by nearly three million votes. What about Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin?
Of course 2016 showed that we need to look beyond the national polls, and focus on the swing states. But there, too, the news is encouraging. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, since Trump took office, his net approval ratings, which started out on the plus side, have fallen — disastrously. In Pennsylvania they decreased by 17 points, in Wisconsin by 20 points, in Michigan by 22 points. In the midterm voting, those three swing states all elected Democrats in 2018. Wisconsin elected a Democratic governor to replace a Republican, and reelected a Democratic senator; Pennsylvania reelected a Democratic governor and Democrats there took three House seats away from Republican incumbents. In Michigan, which the Democrats lost to Trump by 11,000 votes, the Democrats had a huge victory in 2018, sweeping the elections for governor and senator and flipping two House seats. Voters also banned gerrymandering and created automatic voter registration, which together will bear fruit in 2020. All this explains why I’m quite certain we’ll be free at last from Donald Trump on Jan. 20, 2021.
A lot can happen between now and November. We can’t afford to rely on this or any other analysis– we can’t let our guard down. We have to keep working hard and do everything in our power to get the vote out.
But these are good numbers and good omens. Fingers crossed…
36 thoughts on “RIP GOP?”
We have continually seen the destructive effects of demagogues who induce fear in the population, but sometimes fear can be a constructive emotion, especially when it regards a realistic possibility. We need to be afraid of the consequences of civic ignorance and voter apathy and the rise of authoritarianism and fascist tendencies. Like the advertisement for the horror movie goes, “Be afraid. Be very afraid.”
I am less of a believer in the effects of voter suppression (though I believe it exists), third-party candidates, etc., than I am of my belief the Dems cannot nominate anyone who gets the base excited. Sure, many of the candidates can get a few people excited, but there is no single candidate who excites and gets us up off our feet. That is what is missing. That is what is needed to win.
Anne Frank believed people to be inherently good; until very recent years much of the civilized world believed America and Americans to be inherently good. It has taken less than three Trump years to destroy that belief to the world at large and turned Americans against Americans and unleashed deadly violence. We have no haven of safety and the body count continues to mount due to the GOP full support of Trump’s White Nationalism, armed by the NRA and financed by those billion dollar corporations and the 1-2% whose tax rates are lower than Americans living at poverty level. “Love of money is the root of all evil.” and the GOP controls the purse strings to the Electoral College, voter suppression and gerrymandering thanks to Citizens United.
“The strength of turnout in November by voters determined to “vote blue no matter who” will tell us whether today’s optimism or pessimism is justified.”
But we cannot wait till November for answers to the question above; if there are no viable blue candidates – or NO blue candidates at all – chosen in the Primaries, will we have enough “blue no matter who” candidates to vote for?
I have a question for the Bernie Bros. If Bernie isn’t the nominee, will you take your ball and go home or vote for Jill Stein like so many of you did in 2016 or will you suck it up and vote for the Democratic candidate?
Peggy’s question is important. That is how Trump won, and it is how G.W. Bush won. Those who are too childish to play the game if they can’t make the rules are doing a good job of destroying the country.
I am praying this comes to happen.If God, as many cultist insists, placed trump in the Oval office it may be a sign he’s done with us and is ready to put a different species , heat and radiation resistant, in charge.
Peggy asks a good question, but one must first ask what the problems are leading the country and who are providing viable solutions to those issues.
All your complaints about Citizens United and the 1% controlling the GOP are also valid about the DNC. The DNC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wall Street bankers. If they chose Joe Biden to run against Donald Trump, I am pretty sure many young democrats and lefties will stay home or vote for a third-party candidate.
I know many young people who are volunteering their time to assist Bernie Sanders because he motivates them. I don’t know anybody (young or old) who are volunteering for Joe Biden other than committed party staffers.
@Jeff W mentions this in his post – excite the base. Voting for another captive politician with status quo policies excites nobody. Just saying, “I’m not Trump!” isn’t going to be enough to get millions of young people to show up. I’m the last of the Boomer generation, and it doesn’t excite me either.
This country has shifted so far to the right that it needs abrupt and resounding change. Now!
The only two candidates offering that change are Sanders and Warren and some good political strategist is working to sow discord between their two camps as we speak.
The days of electing subservient and servile democrats are over. Just being blue isn’t enough. Another Neoliberal POTUS does nothing for the working class or young people.
Why do you think many of the working-class areas of the country supported Trump over Clinton?
They wrongly believed he was going to drain the swamp of captured, or Oligarch-owned, politicians. He was a fraud, but they understood his speeches. Many still do even though he has done nothing for them.
He’s been great for Wall Street though but at whose expense? The working class.
The working class needs candidates who will fight for them because they are powerless. Neoliberal economics for the past forty years has crushed the American Dream. The greed of the Oligarchs has hollowed out the USA. If the Democratic Party wants to ensure victories across the country, they need to represent the working classes. People are fed up with candidates who make promises and then, once elected, go to work for their corporate donors.
You know, whether you’re educated or not, it doesn’t prevent a person from being resentful. They could be resentful because of their job, their lot in life, bad marriage, terrible relationships, terrible choices, a terrible inferiority complex, someone who lives with every type of phobia as a constant companion.
If only they had a messiah that would elevate their idealism, their wants and desires, no matter how unrealistic or depraved, that’s their kind of person.
They want to believe in a savior, they were still waiting for their Messiah, but they needed a different type of Messiah. They couldn’t have one like Jesus Christ, he was too inclusive. He was much too liberal minded when it came to taking care of your fellow man, I guess Christ must have been the welfare King.
They needed a messiah that demonized everyone but you! No one else is worthy of health Care, a living wage, and education, food, shelter, life itself, but you!
And then appears one of the worst examples of humanity that ever existed. On a par with Adolf Hitler, Mussolini, Joseph Stalin, and every other twisted reactionary authoritarian that’s ever lived, they welcomed him with open arms, they give him prayer and praise worthy loyalty.
Yes this is happened before in history, history verifies it. That’s why this current group will demonize history, because somehow they’ll be different. Just like all of the others thought that came before, their reinvented wheel will work the best.
Only this time, there is no place to go when it all blows up in everyone’s face. There is no new world, no sailing across an ocean, no moving further south or further west or further north or further east. There is no starting something new. There is no cutting ties and communications anymore, everything is connected. The Earth is full, there is no more hiding from the stupidity of really really really bad decisions. There is no planet b, or planet x y or z. And even if there was, we couldn’t get there, by the time mankind would be able to do something like that, he will have destroyed himself.
Man has always put Faith in his abilities, but what has mankind done? What type of successes has mankind had that would give everyone an epiphany (or faith) that everything is going to be fixed? Mankind is veering rapidly towards self-imposed Extinction, but the solutions are the same old thing that has been tried for millennia. Except now, the planet is so full and connected, any attempt will be drowned out buy all of the noise.
So, the stupidity and resentfulness of mankind, the stubbornness and the stiff-necked beliefs of humanity, has put us on a path for a long slogging, painful and miserable suicide.
There are other ways, but those would be rejected also, because they have already, so then, here we are!
I won’t be particularly happy if someone like Biden is the Dem nominee, but is he at least 1000 times better than 45? Yes he is. That being said I will vote for him if he is the nominee. While I’m at it, since it appears likely that we will have a white male candidate, I’d like to suggest that Stacey Abrams be asked to join the ticket.
We have the votes but the trick is to turn them out. If they come out in the numbers I would like to see they would exceed Greenberg’s expectations. That said, voter suppression tactics in swing and other states is real. Pre-caucus Democratic infighting in Iowa doesn’t help, and there are other negative factors to consider when predicting a Democratic sweep. I am reluctant to predict a Democratic sweep mostly because of fear of poor turnout, and good turnout assumes robust registration, among other things.
Thus this fall’s election success may depend not upon Trump’s twitter onslaught and political histronics and huge money but with our efforts now as we register every Democrat out in the thousands of precincts in every state and see that they show up in November. We will win big if we organize well and obey the first law of a successful electoral process – overwhelming turnout – because after all is said and done (if it ever is), elections are about arithmetic.
Readers today may stop here and go to the final paragraph if they wish as the following is off-topic, personal, ancient, and I hope (humorous). I am old enough to remember the Democratic sweep of 1936 (I was nine) when FDR took 46 of the then 48 states in a Democratic sweep. I taunted a neighborhood classmate whose parents were Republicans the day after the election with a homemade mantra that (the Republican candidates) “Landon and Knox, fell on the rocks; Landon and Knox, fell on the rocks!” He gave me a right cross to the chin and the fight was on as we rolled around in the grass. We made up after that kid fight in 1936 and I have been telling people since that I had my first fight as a Democrat in the midst of The Great Depression, but other than some time spent in the South Pacific in defense of democracy against fascism during WW II, I have eschewed violence in re political issues since.
Back to turnout > Both my parents voted Democratic in the fall of 1936 and FDR, of course, carried the state. With overwhelming turnout based on the dog work of getting people registered and to the polls, and though not by the margin of an FDR, I think we can win the State of Indiana come November. Registration and turnout! Registration and turnout! Can’t be done? That’s what we said in 2016 when we thought Hillary was a cinch. Let’s go to work, and now.
If Bernicrats don’t vote/vote for 3rd parties because they aren’t “excited” by the single prospect of beating The Duck, than the country is sunk. Someone like Biden just isn’t as “exciting” at superheroes, legal marijuana…so let’s just slide into dictatorship? Give me a break….
Peggy – Biden/Abrams is “the ticket”. Biden may need to announce this before the convention to seal his deal.
Todd, you always sing the same song, and though you aren’t necessarily incorrect in what you say, the question is what are you going to do in the real world given the limitations presented to you. You are not going to be king. You are not going to get your way. So how do we move the needle? Vote for your favorite in the primary, of course, but after that? If you can’t commit to voting for whichever Democrat is nominated, then you ARE a Trump supporter and a fascist enabler.
The Reactionary – Right Wing- Evangelical Republican Party has excelled, at a variety of schemes, and tricks. Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression are two methods that come to mind. The ACLU along with other groups have legally challenged these schemes by the GOP.
What the Democratic Party must do is make certain, their voters are registered and ready to vote when election time comes up. This is a job the DNC should be performing at a high level and supporting state and local efforts to register voters. I receive a lot of mailers from the national Democratic party apparatus, slamming President Agent Orange, with an appeal for me to write a check. These mailers never ask if I am a registered voter, the pitch is for my money.
The GOP’s main message among their voters from what I see and read is God (their version of course), Guns and a militant foreign policy. They are also obsessed with dead voters and masses of illegal aliens voting for the Democrats. Members of “The Squad” are also regularly attacked.
Bottom line to vote you have be registered to do so, waiting for November or October to do so is too late.
@OverIT asks, “If you can’t commit to voting for whichever Democrat is nominated, then you ARE a Trump supporter and a fascist enabler.”
This kind of binary thinking is why the working class has been getting screwed since the 1970s, if not before. It’s also why Trump won in 2016…the year of populism.
The DNC pushed the most anti-populist candidate because it was “her turn.” She was the worst candidate possible considering the times.
The Boomer generation is dying off daily. The next largest voting bloc is 35 and under, and nearly 70% of them support socialism.
To them, Bernie Sanders is the closest option they have to socialism, but he’s nothing but a New Dealer–a Democratic Socialist.
Do you think taking this stance is popular in an American culture entrenched (brainwashed) in exploiting consumers and workers? Do you think Oligarchs applaud my words?
Don’t ever question my motives or sacrifices in this world unless you’ve walked in my boots.
Once again, Jane Mayer’s prescient-based book, “Dark Money” explains the machinations of how and why Republicans cheat. They didn’t always used to be like this, but once the Kochtupus and all the other billionaires got into the game – and allowed in – the game and its rules became part of the kakistocracy that we’re now fighting against. The People? The billionaires say, “We don’t need no stinkin’ people. We’ve got Becky.
What Pascal said.
Todd, I agree with both of your posts. We need a Democratic candidate who will carry the fire in them to burn up Trumpism, and McConnellism, Sanders or Warren have fire. I do not see any fire in Biden, to sell Biden he must be triangulated with some type of running mate that will have an appeal to the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party.
Chris Hedges wrote the following:
“The greatest moral failing of the liberal Christian church was its refusal, justified in the name of tolerance and dialogue, to denounce the followers of the Christian right as heretics. By tolerating the intolerant it ceded religious legitimacy to an array of con artists, charlatans and demagogues and their cultish supporters. It stood by as the core Gospel message—concern for the poor and the oppressed—was perverted into a magical world where God and Jesus showered believers with material wealth and power.”
“The mega-pastors, narcissists who rule despotic, cult-like fiefdoms, make millions of dollars by using this heretical belief system to prey on the mounting despair and desperation of their congregations, victims of neoliberalism and deindustrialization. These believers find in Donald Trump a reflection of themselves, a champion of the unfettered greed, cult of masculinity, lust for violence, white supremacy, bigotry, American chauvinism, religious intolerance, anger, racism and conspiracy theories that define the central beliefs of the Christian right. When I wrote “American Fascists: The Christian Right and the War on America” I was deadly serious about the term “fascists.”
President Agent Orange and Pastor Pence know their base. I saw a funny post on Face Book where all these people in some Mega-Church are lining up to be “healed” by some “Pastor”, next to it was a picture of a hospital. The question was – Why doesn’t the Pastor go to the Hospital and “Heal” the sick people there??
Much will happen between now and Election Day. Probably what will happen will have a bigger impact on the outcome of the election than what has happened so it’s very early to speculate about it.
Trump is overwhelmed by his incompetence at the job, Republicans are completely locked into their strategy but nothing is working governance wise. Pelosi is the winner.
Bottom line for most pro governance people is to stay open minded about who will be offered as an alternative to the present pretender who would be king. Let the people decide.
As November approaches carry the banner of “vote blue no matter who” high and proudly and confidently.
In my state, Michigan, Trump won by about 10,750 votes. What is more interesting is that well over 19,000 people left their ballots blank for President. Many people believed that this number was a bit higher than expected due to the larger number of “protest” voters (never Hillary). While some of these voters didn’t want Trump, it was suspected that the majority were Bernie voters. That said, it is clear that both sides are going to need EVERY vote – it will be that close again. A third party candidate will give the election away… again.
TS: BS! TS…
seems theres the way i have had it thrown in my face,peggy..in discussions with trumpers who i frequent and have ongoing,and spur of the moment incounters,like a oil field service company i was at yesterday…trump is ths crowning achivement to their long needed good paying job.but,as im seeing,they are questioning his crap.its not democratic,and its falls flat on morals,many of these people in williston n,d, they grew up with family values and morals,they,do have a understanding of the boom and bust cycle,and protecting their job is above all,but,they also see the change will happen in fossil fuels.its a long range plan to phase out,and many of these twenty years olds will still probably be using diesel until they retire.yes a reality factor,industry has done little to change it overall. right now im hearing trumps crap is getting them looked upon as a instigator to his madness. though quiet,they do and are listening to points i bring up,one on one,and small group, they dont have a outlet to to depend on for information,as they alike all,listen to bubba who listens to the right wing pundits and their propaganda. many are realizing that it is not how many were raised,and dont want a trumps America anymore..if the wall street scam again fails,they know without social programs thet will return to a near poverty status,while listening to some one who blames us,while we ,are trying to keep the for the people ,by the people,society going.civility is starting to come to my conversations,but i have few munites,and make a few comments,i find,they have no idea,that was the real issue..they want a America for all,but,the constant propaganda handed out on commercial media,is like a howling blizzard in NoDak. and they are getting tired of it..best wishes..yes,i really do this kind of on the spot discussion with working class people,and i do,haul oil field equipment,and i use it as a vehicle to connect with the unconnected who are,looking for the truth..what are you doing?
Lester 9:08; those Berniecrats repeating their 2016 foolishness is my greatest fear this November, much more than which of the other candidates is nominated.
Careful careful. Greenberg seems to be making a lot of assumptions for his rosey outlook. IE – “long term, immigration is a net good/gain”. I think relying on people to think about “Immigration is actually good long term” “Single payer systems are less expensive and work better”, etc. are all things that are true, but aren’t believed. I’m not sure why someone would rely on people having the epiphany.
Jack S, the transition to next generation energy is a huge concern because it probably will bring about one of the largest waves of obsolete jobs ever. We simply have to help those millions impacted.
The science though is clear and compelling to those who have invested in learning it but obscure to the majority who chose other roads to making a living.
That’s a terrible combination and ripe for social/entertainment media advertising/fake news/propaganda/brainwashing not to protect the affected workers but the investors return, the prime responsibility of fuel interest management.
If sensible people led by knowledge lose that war the cost will be a chaotic transition from the now obsolete past to the inevitable sustainable future in which everyone loses.
My comments are directed more to the posts today from the regular followers than the main topic of Professor Kennedy’s essay today. Although I do hope that those prognosticators are correct.
Lawrence O’Donnell ended his program on MSNBC last night (Yep, my wife and I do watch some of the “fake” corporate media that Todd regularly rails against) with a point that I believe is not only correct, but one that I think that everyone here needs to think about when watching the debates tonight and ultimately deciding whether to support whichever candidate eventually secures the Democratic nomination.
O’Donnell’s point is that a President actually has extremely little power to enact anything into law. Sanders and Warren can campaign on the promise to enact a single-payer Health Care for All as a right on day one of their administration (insert any of the other campaign promises, such as “tax the rich,” made by Sanders, Warren or any and all of the other candidates as well) all they want (I’m not alleging that either is being insincere or cynical in making those promises. I believe both sincerely believe that it should be a right).
As O’Donnell, I think, correctly points out though, that WILL NOT HAPPEN, even if either Sanders or Warren are elected and the Dems hold the House and take control of the Senate.
As O’Donnell pointed out, the likelihood that both the House and the Senate, even if both are controlled by the Democrats, would pass and send to the new, hopefully, Democrat President to be signed a law creating single-payer Health Care For All is slim to none (Nancy Pelosi, for one, is not in favor of attempting to enact Health Care for All at this time, and there are other Democrats in both the House and Senate who agree).
But virtually every single Democrat in the House and Senate are in favor of not only preserving the provisions of Obamacare, but of passing some form of legislation aimed at increasing the access to affordable health care to the most people possible.
O’Donnell’s ultimate point — which I think is relevant to the discussion here between Todd, Peggy and OverIt — is that each and every one of the Democrats remaining in the race, including Sanders and Warren, WOULD readily sign ANY bill sent to them by Congress that would help increase the number of people insured and help reduce the cost of health care even if it isn’t Health Care For All. Warren said that very thing to O’Donnell in an prior interview, and I can’t imagine even Sanders vetoing such a bill because it didn’t give him everything he wanted. On the other hand, we all know for an absolute certainty that will not happen if Trump is re-elected — regardless if both the House and Senate are controlled by the Democrats.
Is that a compromise? Do most of us here agree that a single-payer Health Care for All would be the best? Most of us probably do. Hopefully we will get too that point sometime in the near future. But we can at least vote to ensure that it won’t get worse (and get better), which is what is guaranteed to happen if Trump gets elected.
Even if Todd is correct — and I’m not going enter into the fray of that argument — that the Democratic Party is in the pocket of Wall Street and big corporations, there is still that old observation that ultimately if the choices presented to you are and you have to pick one, you hold your nose, and pick the lesser of two evils. And there is a clear and overarching evil that we, as a Country, need to avoid at all costs.
I will, for one, gladly — even if perhaps not excitedly — campaign for and vote for any of the remaining Democratic candidates in the race. Each and every one would not only avoid the far greater existential threat to our Democracy and Country, but would undoubtedly begin moving the Country in the direction the vast majority of us who follow this Blog believe is essential to move toward on all the existential issues and crucial problems this Country faces including climate change. FWIW
Obviously, it’s going to be the same old same old.
David touched on it and recognizes the deal. Firstly, the demise of the GOP several years ago was greatly exaggerated. Rachel Maddow, Lawrence O’Donnell, even Wolf Blitzer, amongst all of their contemporaries espoused to the demise of the GOP, and the GOP got to work! Now look!
The disservice that the so-called liberal media is doing to the process, the faith in polling, the espousing of unsubstantiated rosy scenarios, contributes to the apathy.
So, here we go again, looking at the polling, espousing the possible demise of the GOP, reverting to infighting and tribalism amongst those who are supposed to be like-minded. That’s how the minority controls the majority (Divide and conquer). I just do not have much faith in mankind sorting through all of these issues. Not just mankind from the distant past, which has laid out the blueprint of what is happening now, but mankind at present and mankind in the future.
If everyone is too tribalistic to recognize that the same old thing is happening once again, then of course it will happen again, except this last course will probably be the fatal one.
Unfortunately for the GOP, they can burn the whole thing down, too bad they don’t realize, They are in the house also. A fanatical tribalistic and fatalistic course, because being ignorant of facts, truth and reality, is the fast track towards extinction and annihilation. It’s not just in the good old US of A, it’s everywhere. And I think if there was an epiphany to be had, everyone would’ve had it by now, but, reading through all of the comments, it ain’t gonna happen!
pete,thanks, the energy industry is full of anti trust,non compitition with like items,and the surge needed to go start,the green industry.I support it,i dont support fossil fuel,but,like them the oil field worker ,my wages are dependant upon the work i turn out. i havent a chance living above poverty in any other industry,im in trucking,not fossil fuel. ive been out here for 41 years as a over the road,local hauls,construction, and specialized logistics. prior,i worked on trucks..and no,its not a family thing..i used my tallents and sit down and get involved by my own few,resources,my wallet.im poor, i havent a chance at a decent retirement,just turned 65 and have to work in my field till i get run over,,my wages keep me fed,and happy,they also help a single mom and a friend who and can not,get a better break either,and they have no family ties,neighbors…i have been a life long progressive after watching the unions get busted up by corp,wall street greed. over all, the working class is sitting on its ass getting less because they dont have a source of whats really going on..,i step on shoes everyday because i wont see my America desolve before my eyes without a stand . i see nothing wrong with the working class get a fair living wage for their efforts. we have become a society of take it or leave it and screw what you think. who fighting this war? i see the working class being enslaved to cheap rants and bad media. the reason why we are here is bacause few have witnessed or seen the change and they have accepted it.., that has undermined our laws,constitution and way of life.Bernie is the only canidate who has the balls to call it like it is. Robert Reich is a damn good narator of what is going on,Amy Goodman is a voice and anouncer to the world,journalists who are now,writing the first lines of a new history,shameful history,one that should have never been allowed,i call it akin to hitler and the nazis.the only thing short of killing the voice,and jailing the masses.i cant see beyond november,i can however keep my job,and donate as needed,and use it as a vehicle to those,we are trying to see the light..fact,wall street is growing all of a sudden,sans the military,and propaganda,seems everytime the news focuses on the progressives,and closer to november,,the market is moving up,influencing that new get rich app,by investing in wall street,, shut me down if i cant believe wall street controls all the strings of influence,via how they have degenerated society..the green new deal is,and will protect good paying jobs,living wage jobs,wall street has already trying to demand entry,via their rules, they want the profit,we will also keep them at bay..time for change,get new investors in,and like a co-op everyone on board supports the worker first policy. we are,actully going to do the work,we will demand a living wage,..Bernies policy is all about this move.. a living wage will geld wall sreets rampid greed wagon.we demand it stops..
Great post, Sheila. Yes, Republicans will cheat in every way possible to get and keep power, including voter suppression, purging voter rolls, poll watchers, gerrymandering, etc., but I fear what Russians are able to do. There are states and counties that only vote via computer, and which don’t have back up paper ballots. Russians are excellent hackers, and there are fears that they could add and/or delete voters and votes.
The House passed an election security act to require back up paper ballots, which Moscow Mitch McConnell refuses to call for a vote or even assign to a committee. That bill would literally be the least that could be done to cure this potential problem, so you have to conclude that McConnell and the Republicans want to help Trump cheat again. They control the FBI and DOJ, so there wouldn’t even be a serious investigation. You know that Barr wouldn’t act no matter what the evidence, if it might invalidate Trump’s “second victory”. If this happens, I fear that there could be all out anarchy. There is absolutely no doubt at this point that most Americans are sick to death of Trump and want him gone, but his massive ego cannot handle rejection or admit being wrong.
Trump has displayed the lengths to which he will go to try to win over the American people, which include leveraging military aid in exchange for smearing the Bidens, and ordering the assassination of a foreign military leader on foreign soil, and then lying about it. What’s next? The NYT reports that Russian hackers have gotten into Burisma’s computers, and there is concern that they could either plant or delete evidence regarding Hunter Biden.
Jack, nobody knows the timetable but your job is not in jeopardy from the conversion of motive power away from fuel but from the same threat that manufacturer labor faces and that is robotics.
It will happen and my guess is sooner rather than later.
Progress happens despite human costs and it joins health care as something governmental has to becoming much better as a service provider in maintaining. Both sick and obsolete workers are equally unaffordable for all of us.
Let us cut to the chase. If you believe that the rule of law is obsolete and that there exists a sounder principle on which to base governance, if you have confidently plotted your path to prosperity in a despotic society devoid of values, if you have concluded that mindlessness should replace wisdom and thoughtfulness in directing the affairs of (wo)men, and if you embrace the notion that as long as you get what’s coming to you, others’ wishes do not matter, your path to the polls may lead to hell, but it won’t involve any conflicts about whom to select.
If, on the other hand, you believe that America’s founders were both wise and noble, that they risked their lives and their fortunes to set government on a more promising path, that they achieved just about all that was possible in devising an experiment to determine whether their new nation was capable of self governance, and that that experiment is ongoing and worth prolonging, then your choice in 2020 is equally simple. Each of us has a personal preference, but not to vote for whoever runs on the democratic ticket is to throw in the towel while declaring, “I just don’t give a damn.” Planet Earth would long regret such a self-destructive decision.
I have seen no evidence yet of advantages for us of any alternative to our liberal democracy under the terms of the Constitution drafted 250 years ago and the regulated mixed economy we have always had.
Both are in jeopardy. Democracy can save us if we utilize it.
The Democrats’ claim of widespread “voter suppression,” is as absurd as Trump’s claims that millions of “illegals” voted in 2016. The turnout numbers since 2016 are through the roof. The vote is not being “suppressed.” I wish the media would stop giving the Ds a pass on having to prove their “voter suppression” claim. The only evidence Ds can ever muster h is a voter here or there who didn’t get to vote…nothing even remotely establishing widespread voter suppression they claim. It’s the same thing with Rs voter fraud claim….isolated instances can be shown, but nothing resembling a widespread pattern. Ds are correct when they point this out. What is good for the goose, is good for the gander.
I think the odds are against Trump getting re-elected in 2016. He is historically unpopular and 47% of the population is dead set against voting for him. However, if the D’s nominate Sanders or Warren, I think Trump becomes the favorite. I know the theory that someone “progressive” like Sanders or Warren is needed to drive D turnout. I don’t buy it. What has been shown to drive D turnout is Donald Trump. Trump will make sure that Ds turnout, regardless of who they nominate. Better to nominate a moderate who can win a Wisconsin, a Michigan, a Pennsylvania.
The term “voter suppression” has come to mean varying from one person one vote with every vote equal.
It’s always been the stated goal but never been reality and Republicans are dedicated to make it even worse in more ways (like the Russians successfully did in 2016 here).
For those who believe that all is lost, everyone is a corrupt corporate puppet, and only an immediate move to total socialism will be effective, even though the GOP took 36 years to move from Reagan racist, dog-whistles and anti-intellectualism to Trump’s overt racism and anti-intellectualism (longer if you count Nixon’s “Southern strategy”), the rest of this won’t be believed. It isn’t based on polls, but on being a political activist (on and off) for over 50 years.
JonWiener’s column and analysis reflect what I have been saying for a long time. Trump will lose unless the Democrats implode or form a circular firing squad (being capable of either or both). First, the Trump base is shrinking due to death and a few people who liked the idea of throwing a wrench in the works, but the novelty is over. Second, Trump has done nothing to expand his base. Third, the Democrats are no longer complacent, having seen both the stupidity of taking the Midwest (or any voting block) for granted and the interference from the Russians. Fourth, the 2018 elections showed the enthusiasm gap with increased turnouts (for a midterm) by both Republicans and Democrats, but the size of the increase for the Democrats was much greater
TLentych – we should also mention that previous Republican stronghold, Oakland County (think Hamilton County in Indiana), has finally flipped to the Democrats, like the recent flip of the Council in Indianapolis in 2012.
Gerald – Sorry, I saw Obama winning Indiana in 2008 and losing in 2012. I don’t see a Democratic win in Indiana this year – but I could be wrong, I just don’t think so, but you are right. Let’s get to work and try.
Jeff W – I have to agree with Paul Ogden here (yes, we agree sometimes) – Anti-Trump, fear of losing health care, fear of losing reproductive freedom, and anger at “kids in cages” (if reminded) will motivate. I sense the energy and it showed itself in 2018. No, Biden doesn’t thrill me, but neither did Hillary. Still, I campaigned for her and voted for her.
David F – YES – I saw O’Donnell and completely agree.
For people worried about Bernie’s supporters, if I were a non-Bernie Democratic nominee, I would ask Bernie for one statement: “The movie line says ‘Love is never having to say you are sorry’; one basic tenet of Democratic Socialism is NEVER voting third party. A vote for a third party, or a non-vote is a repudiation of me”. Bernie should repeat that often.
Next (sorry this will be one of those obscure, shockingly blunt references – skip if you like), minority leaders should confront everyone in their communities who doesn’t plan on voting (especially the men) and ask: “Do you want to be like Dr. Minor and cut off a body part to spite yourself?” – Dr. Minor did not cut off his nose to spite his face, but did cut off a body part (from the book The Madman and the Professor).
Yes, Paul, there is voter suppression – You may accept that making it difficult to vote is no big deal – I think that voting is a right and should be as easy as possible. Still, if they purge the rolls in black precincts and not white ones, purge black sounding names, but save Hispanic sounding ones in Florida (2000 – Cuban-Americans were mostly Republican), just re-register like crazy. We did that for Obama.
Too few voting sites – how about a thousand-car caravan bringing voters to the polls. I think is was Alan Rickman’s character Phil Allen in the under-appreciated Blow Dry (sorry, being obscure again – and I may have one attributed this to Dr. Who once) who said “Just because it’s fixed doesn’t mean you can’t break it”.
We know what to look out for and there is a law of diminishing returns for campaign spending, no matter how many billions Trump has.
Sheila, keep being optimistic and reading articles like that one (good for the blood pressure). Trump will be defeated.
Paul K. Ogden; I was living in Florida in 2000 when the infamous presidential “recount” was done with George W’s brother Jeb as governor. Voter suppression was primary in the news even before the recount; people refused the right to vote because they were dead, a convicted felon or not registered, all lies. The recount was even worse when previously counted votes were suppressed and an entire closet filled with boxes of Absentee Ballots was discovered but declared not received before the election. I do not remember one time the media reported that Republicans were suppressing Democratic votes…only that thousands of votes were being suppressed. Republicans don’t seem to realize that all of the voter suppression and/or denial to register includes Republicans as well as Democrats. The situation in Georgia’s gubernatorial election last year is a primary example of voter suppression of minorities; all denial of voting and civil rights by the current Republican administrations also effects Republican Americans who cannot afford to fight for their rights. There are Republicans living in poverty who lost food stamps while living on below federal poverty level income; there are Republican seniors and disabled who are losing benefits and cannot afford medical care or medications. Working in Indianapolis City Government from 1972 to 1994 I saw the progress and growth under Mayor Lugar and Mayor Hudnut and the immediate destruction which began in January 1992 under Goldsmith and carried out at state level by Daniels and Pence, continuing under Holcomb to put this state at the bottom of 50 states regarding income, health care and education with escalating crumbling infrastructure throughout the state.
As long as Republicans are in charge and votes are suppressed we will remain at the bottom…including struggling Republicans who are suffering along with Democrats and those with no political or religious affiliation.
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