Any woman who has given birth will confirm that the process is painful. That analogy gives rise to a more positive way of looking at the multiple, seemingly insoluble problems we humans currently face–perhaps we are experiencing destruction that is necessary to make way for the birth of a better future.
That, at least, is the argument of The Great Progression, according to an article in The Big Think.
The author, one Peter Leyden, says that a “slow-moving, pro-progress story is being missed by most of the mainstream media chasing the minute-by-minute story of crisis and decline.”
The time has come for a positive reframe of what’s really going on in America and the world right now, and what’s actually going to happen in the near future. For far too long we’ve been looking at our current situation and the coming decades through the lens of the past.
Most people are stuck in the familiar default frame that sees many of our old systems breaking down in the face of myriad challenges like climate change, polarized politics, economic and social inequities, the paralysis of liberal democracies, and the rise of authoritarian states.
Yet we’re now at the point where we can view what’s happening, and what’s soon coming, through the lens of the future. That view sees the many nascent systems emerging that are superseding the old ones breaking down. This perspective sees many slow-moving positive developments coming to head, transformative technologies ready to scale, and new trends building to the tipping point. This perspective focuses not on breakdown but on rebirth.
Needless to say, this version of humankind’s current situation is infinitely preferable to the view that we are all doomed…..
Leyden writes that we will lay the foundations for a set of new systems over the next 10 years, after which they will “scale in the next 25 years.” He calls this the story of The Great Progression, and asserts that
there’s also an emerging majority of smart, decent, and practical Americans who are realigning and getting positioned to make rapid progress in the years ahead.
This pro-progress story gets even better when you step back and think about the really big picture, when you think through how people living decades if not centuries from now will look back on our times. From that vantage point, we’re arguably at the beginning of a transformation that is going to change the world in profound and largely positive ways.
In the next 25 years, Leyden says, we will deal with climate change through transitions from carbon to clean energy, and from internal-combustion engines to electric mobility. We will reinvent cities, scale up new industries and build a much more environmentally and socially sustainable society.
We very likely will reform capitalism around new economic priorities that counter the current imbalances and inequities. And we can be expected to revitalize our democracies and push back on authoritarianism around the world. People in 50, 100, or even 500 years from now may well look back on our era and marvel at the transformation that we’re about to go through.
Well, I’m certainly up for all those things…
Leyden says the evidence for this transformation is all around us–in powerful new tools like artificial intelligence, and unprecedented knowledge like the ability to understand and engineer the genomes of all living things. The remainder of his essay lays out his version of the next 25 years, and he says we should hear him out because “I’ve been through this drill before, 25 years ago, and that story proved to be very prescient.” (This was a reference to his co-authorship of The Long Boom, a History of the Future, 1980 to 2020, a story for WIRED, which later became an influential book in multiple languages.)
It’s hard to debate his statement that the world we older people have spent lifetimes mastering is coming to an end. That, at least, seems self-evident.
Every one of those systems arguably is being superseded by new systems much better suited for the 21st century. Our uber-challenge is now climate change and so our energy system must shift to clean power and our transportation system to electric. Our culture now is dominated by the huge Millennial generation and our politics are becoming more progressive. Our economics is raising the role of the public sector and capitalism being pushed to include all stakeholders. Work is now taking place much more virtually, and production is on the cusp of becoming biological. And our geopolitics is recentering on Asia, and in particular on the new superpower, China.
The essay is long, and his evidence is at the link. It’s worth your time to read–and may lighten your mood…..It did mine. After all, he could be right!
Lots of wonderful things are in process. IF we don’t blow it all up.
So have we been experiencing the ‘storm before the calm’, rather than the calm before the storm?
The above comment is from me, Nancy – not Nanch
Hopeful!
Now if we can remove the barriers to progress that the MAGA GOP is trying to put in place.
Even some people in the Republican Party are getting fed up with the lies and the liars, so this is a good time to reframe the conversation. Thank you Professor!
This resonates with me and the work of Riane Eisler that I discovered earlier this year. Her books are worth reading, and her TED talk/podcasts are worth listening to. She talks about replacing industrial era economics (socialism, capitalism) with a sustainable, caring economy that expands our GDP calculations to include household productivity, volunteerism, and the depletion of natural resources.
Did the “Great Progression” pick up where “The Great Reset” ended? LOL
How many post commenters read the far-right book, The Great Reset?
I doubt many wasted their time, but it has dictated much of the lenses used by all the far-right characters who see themselves as media warriors and their followers. It tells the tale of how the World Economic Forum is leading the globe in extracting wealth for the global elite. Alex Jones has updated the conspiracy with a new book.
As with all the far-right’s viewpoints and theories, there is just enough truth to convince the masses who follow the MAGA crowd. However, don’t fool yourselves that MAGA is limited to the USA. The entire Atlantic Elite sees the WEF and Davos crowd as a threat.
Here’s an excerpt from Jones’s book:
“The Great Reset: And the War for the World chronicles the history of the global elites’ rise to power and reveals how they’ve captured the governments of the world and financed The Great Reset to pave the way for The New World Order.
Once dubbed a conspiracy theory but now openly promoted by the most powerful corporations and governments, The Great Reset is a planned attempt to redistribute all the world’s wealth and power into the hands of banks, corporations, billionaires, and The World Economic Forum.”
As you can see, there will be resistance from group adherents to “The Great Progression” because many of our positive changes and future progress coincide with predictions coming from Alex Jones, except he isn’t bright enough (like Trump) to understand the entire picture.
* Not the “Atlantic Elite,” but the Brexit crowd and Fascists in Europe.
progressive ideas,make a inroad if the ignorance wasnt so profound. talking with the FNG on a job site,young, new to road construction,local, bred by farm ranch types still living in the depression. obviously he has a good outlook, until you talk about whats killing the American dream and democracy. he rides the wave on being happy, until, i reality check him. first off, lets say im a vet,(veietnam era),hey thanks for your service!, why? that con line was produced to start a war with iraq. thank a bush for that one. as we talked, he didnt find anything wrong with dissing the Native American. just a natural dislike,typical rants,drunks,no goods etc. being were standing in a town that is predomiantly NA. i pointed out, how if they hadnt been stolen from and killed for white dominance, they might have fared better. still hes happy, i mentioned anti fa,seems hes been educated here, were all tree huggers and anti fossil. nope, but were why you can say what you want,any way you want,when you want, we protect that right,and those who have educated you want to take that away. looking at me he just stared. look at it like this,if you remove a freedom from someone,whos to,decide it wont happen to you. if you look at the people spinning the issues,then look at where the money comes from to spin that issue. if they,wont stand on a platform and demand you have a better life,as in ,your back pocket,which in turn keeps you local economy in intact, then its obvious they only want to take more from you,for themselves. look at the rich and how they got there? it was my living wage that went into their back pocket,not mine. after a lenthy conversation about money,markets,and who has what,and why, he still smiling.the reality checks worked.
hopefully he,ll open that site of robertriech.org and get a better view of a progressive economy is and why,its drowning in bullshit spin that the rich have bought and paid for. obvoiusly thats the end game,lock up the economy into their wealth and then make sure the goverment is theirs to do as they please. china is probably the best goverment to lead the way,by example.
how as your conversation was your conversation with someone on the other side?
Mr Smith
The more I read your comments, the more I understand your points.
Thank you
Giving birth to my last three (of five) children; I concentrated on telling myself “this is not pain, this is pressure”. Truth was it was extremely painful pressure which is what we are going through today. Yes, change is happening for those of us who look forward to having a future and not be drug back to the stalemate of the past; we must fight for our civil and human rights again in this war against evangelical White Nationalism by the MAGAs. As was pointed out (sorry, I forgot who said it in an interview on MSNBC last night); Trump is simply doing what every defendant is expected and supposed to do to protect themselves. He is doing it deliberately with the help of his appointed judge aiding and abetting him from her bench. He planned well for his future in the judicial system, with the help of McConnell denying required hearings on President Obama’s judicial nominees and rushing through Trump’s nominees all the way to the Supreme Court. He stated long ago that the Supreme Court would support him and paved the route to maintaining his power in case the Democrats stole the election. His “Big Lie” was planned in advance of 2020 as was the January 6th insurrection; it is working too well not to have been planned in advance. He was prepared for the “Birth Pains?” he knew was ahead of him; as all criminals do and as all mothers do preparing for the birth of new life.
“The author, one Peter Leyden, says that a “slow-moving, pro-progress story is being missed by most of the mainstream media chasing the minute-by-minute story of crisis and decline.”
The above statement is the perfect statement to explain President Biden’s dropping poll numbers. Consider only that progress regarding his immediate actions in the fight against the Covid-19 Pandemic and the lives saved by that action vs. the lives lost in the previous 2 years.
Does anyone really think the mega-money people are going to allow any transformations to more egalitarian distributions of wealth? Does anyone really think that the 1% is going to do anything but keep hammering for more deregulation? Pipe Dream #1.
Yes, as a species, we’ve always invented new stuff to meet needs and to build toward some sort of future. Flint spearpoints were replaced by long bows, catapults and iron weapons/tools. But the inherent nature of the human being remains the same: Fight for one’s tribe and accept NO interventions.
If the coming election next month doesn’t show a blue wave – as it should given events over the last year – then this “progress” will be thwarted by those who want to retain/gain power without having to do anything to develop that idealistic future. Twenty-five years? Fifty? A hundred? That’s Pipe Dream #2. With nuclear weapons in the hands of lunatics, what is the over/under for human survival over those time spans?
Doomsayers tend to wring their hands and do nothing. I’m not a doomsayer despite my comments. But I can read graphs and data tables. I KNOW what scientific research looks like. What I don’t see is the trend lines toward our future betterment moving quickly enough in the right direction to thwart some moron like Donald Trump somewhere thinking it’s a good idea to blow everybody up in the name of God – of course.
Speaking of births… The most important factor in controlling environmental abuse, poverty and radical politics is to REDUCE the human population on Earth. At about 8 billion of us, there are simply too many rapacious humans for the planet to support. Our life-giving resources are decreasing at an increasing rate. We’ve already passed the point where the Earth can provide enough calories to support 8 billion humans. If that isn’t a “DUH” moment, I don’t know why the Pollyanna-ism of this blog today makes any sense.
Don’t know what Mr. Leyden is drinking, but “I’ll have one of those!”. Does he really think that thinks like AI and gene tampering and the like will be used for the common good? Give me a break. Look at what we have seen: the automobile, digital technology, nuclear energy, “meta”, etc. Results: destroy the planet, make a bunch of billionaires, more inequality, etc.
Show me the hints of a 180 turn…
Todd, good morning and yes my cousins always talk about the great reset, lol! And it doesn’t make one iota of sense. Definitely a conspiracy theory that seems to have gone more mainstream. Of course there’s nothing to back it up.
Jack, excellent points as always, I have to agree with Una, but I’ve always enjoyed your points of view and opinions as I’ve expressed for years.
Vernon,
The best for last!
I wholeheartedly agree with everyone of your points, many that you have actually pointed out in your books! You recommended “The Watchman’s Rattle,” that’s a fascinating book, not one you’ve written but in the same vein to an extent of your writing. Your foresight? Plausible? Very much so!
Nicholas Tesla and his transferring of electricity wirelessly, that would have changed so much in this world, destroyed by Edison. The water fueled diesel type engine, it was bought by the Auto industry and then disappeared along with its inventor. That would have changed so much of where we are today! We wouldn’t be on the precipice of self-destruction, climate change would not even be close to happening.
Having concern for one’s fellow man or really being concerned about the only home humanity has, 500 years down the road? LOL lol! Since the start of the industrial age 150 years ago, we have almost completely destroyed the planet! Ignored the warning signs for the past 60 years! In the 1960s for example, rivers in this country were actually on fire, burning from all of the pollution dumped in the waterways. Invented weapons that could completely destroy the entire planet with the push of a button, pessimistic? I would say realistic! Vernon hit the nail right on the head.
Jacl Smith’s comments suggest that the enthusiasm and “pie in the sky in the future” kind of thinking is just wishful thinking. Too many people don’t understand that until the Republican Party is emasculated at the polls, the only progress we should expect is the continued dominance of the “grey eminence” called the corporate system, which will continue to ensure that the economy works for them, and only for them.
And, since everybody already knows how I write, maybe a little prophecy!
In Matthew, as stated in the 24th chapter;
Formation will rise against nation and Kingdom against Kingdom and there will be food shortages and earthquakes in one place after another all of these are a beginning of birth pangs of distress!……
Many false prophets will arise and mislead many and because of the increasing of lawlessness the love of the greater number will grow cold.
Then if anyone says to you, look here is the Christ or there! Do not believe it for false christs and false prophets will arise and will perform great signs and wonders as to mislead, if possible even the chosen ones. Look! I have forewarned you. Therefore if people say to you look! He is in the wilderness, do not go out look! He is in the inner rooms, do not believe it. For just as the lightning comes out of the East and shines over the West, so the presence of the son of man will be……
The original Greek word used to describe the pangs of distress were the words used for women giving birth. And they describe things happening more and more frequently just as a woman’s birth pangs increase.
John,
Thanks for the nod. Too bad the foreseeable future looks so destructive.
And, since everybody already knows how I write, maybe a little prophecy!
In Matthew, as stated in the 24th chapter;
Formation will rise against nation and Kingdom against Kingdom and there will be food shortages and earthquakes in one place after another all of these are a beginning of birth pangs of distress!……
Many false prophets will arise and mislead many and because of the increasing of lawlessness the love of the greater number will grow cold.
Then if anyone says to you, look here is the Christ or there! Do not believe it for false christs and false prophets will arise and will perform great signs and wonders as to mislead, if possible even the chosen ones. Look! I have forewarned you. Therefore if people say to you look! He is in the wilderness, do not go out look! He is in the inner rooms, do not believe it. For just as the lightning comes out of the East and shines over the West, so the presence of the son of man will be……
The original Greek word used to describe the pangs of distress were the words used for women giving birth. And they describe things happening more and more frequently just as a woman’s birth pangs increase.
“Woe to the pregnant women and those nursing a baby in those days! Keep praying that your flight may not occur in winter time.”
Today, what do we see? Pictures of women holding lifeless babies, emaciated, dried out like prunes or raisins. Not much love or compassion for those dying that horrible death. And we have the nerve to talk about how mankind is going to figure it all out? Lol, ain’t going to happen!
All well and good unless the GQP fulfills its dream of permanent, one-party minority rule. With the majority of their candidates unabashed election deniers, they may get their wish.
Never fear, Vernon, if our particular moron blows things up, it won’t be in the name of God. He wants his own name on everything, including the end of the world.
I think the thing to keep in mind is that real change comes at a somewhat glacial pace. If we do, indeed get to Leyden’s brave new world, most of us will be long gone.
Life exists because our DNA is in a never-ending experiment to find better adaptation to reality. The changes it makes may be random, some work but most fail, but with so many individuals to experiment with, progress toward change for the better is relentless.
So with human culture. Each one of us is born into a world that we never see again because humans also constantly experiment to find better in our common behavior as well as our genes. We don’t get it right every time with either approach but we learn, or more precisely we are taught, what is improvement and what is back-sliding.
As long as we are open to learning, better eventually comes. Of course in these times we have internal forces chewing away at learning because of agendas that require disbelief in reality. They are frequent visitors but have a minority status so, over time, “we shall overcome”.
Very nice narrative, Jack – thank you:
keep working to raise up and educate.
There is the Silicon/AI crowd who promise to make a leisure class out of us some eight billion humans but will be unable to deliver so long as the current socioeconomic conditions exist since profit has arisen only when labor can be exploited, and if labor is not available to be exploited per the Marxian/capitalistic scheme of things, what is available for exploitation given the current set of socioeconomic conditions? Will profit-making become obselete under the new world order, and if not why not?
It seems to me that our major problem is not Silicon’s amazing AI output but rather how to fashion new and/altered institutions to welcome such innovation into a world Silicon cannot innovate, i.e., how on a human level we adapt to and control such continuous innovation. What new motivation, for instance, shall we substitute for profit making?
Change will, as always, happen; but I would expect its pace to be uneven, and therein lie the seeds of strife in the brave new world of post-capitalism and lost rationales for greed.
Vernon’s comments are almost always worth repeating. Particularly the following:
“Speaking of births… The most important factor in controlling environmental abuse, poverty and radical politics is to REDUCE the human population on Earth. At about 8 billion of us, there are simply too many rapacious humans for the planet to support. Our life-giving resources are decreasing at an increasing rate. We’ve already passed the point where the Earth can provide enough calories to support 8 billion humans. If that isn’t a “DUH” moment, I don’t know why the Pollyanna-ism of this blog today makes any sense.”
And if one wants to go one step further, it is quite easy to point to all of the current political upheaval across the world to the population explosion.
Jack Smith for the win!
I’d like to see Sheila do a long comparison between his post and the subject of this article today. Jack nailed it!
My view? We aren’t adapting to the world as fast as we’re changing it, so the obvious solution is massive genetic engineering.
GATTACA. We have the tools.
Per Canticle for Leibowitz, though, a shattered world.
I’ll take death spiral for a thousand, Alex!
What is missing here is acknowledgement that the ‘hearts’ of people have to change for any of this to work. That’s where the real revolution needs to happen. Technology will do nothing without that. In addition, we cannot be rescued y the same old push of consumerism. It is too late. The earth is dying. We need a radical commitment to a simple lifestyle. Most of us will not accept this — certainly the wealthy won’t. I’m sorry, but I just don’t buy Leyden’s positive outlook.
No I just don’t see the hate filled MAGA crowd and its fellow proauthorian allies ever giving up and eventually destroying Liberal democracy. They will do anything and everything necessary to stay in power including destroying nations such as the US.
A nice wish, but that is all. It is one “possible” future, and yes, we “might” look back and see what Leyden predicts, but …
I have worked in molecular biology and in computers (others here have that expertise as well), but all I can say is “perhaps”. There are many positive benefits in the works (probably not as fast as Leyden thinks). Better solar cells, better batteries, materials that reflect heat on hot days and absorb it on cold days (a great way to reduce heating and cooling needs), and some incredible medical breakthroughs are just a few examples.
On the other hand, we are only now starting to study how the design of computer algorithms can lead to very biased results. AI, especially once it is left to be independent, is also subject to many unknown biases based upon the initial programming.
So, I like the hopeful aspect, especially this time of year after the Jewish Yom Kipppur, where we examine our past and end with our hopes for a better future, but reality makes me just say – perhaps.
One last thought/wish – to Sheila and the commenters here, people of any faith or none – “a gutn yor” – wishing everyone a good year of health, sustenance, and happiness.
In terms of Leyden’s notion of “our democracies”
Anyone who talks about “democracies” AS IF a real democracy ACTUALLY EXISTS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD (or has existed at any time) is evidently living mindlessly and blindly in the propaganda world fed to them since a kid and/or is part of the (unconscious, ignorant, naive, willful) crowd who disseminates this total lie — see “The 2 Married Pink Elephants In The Historical Room” … https://www.rolf-hefti.com/covid-19-coronavirus.html
“Separate what you know from what you THINK you know.” — Unknown
(CAVEAT — only read the 2 pink elephant article if you’re GENUINELY interested in the truth and therefore “CAN handle the “inconvenient” truth” …)
Isn’t it about time for anyone to wake up to the ULTIMATE DEPTH of the rabbit hole — rather than remain blissfully willfully ignorant in a fantasy land and play victim like a little child?
Leyden just spreads more of the typical false unreality-based hope, people far and wide love, including Sheila (“It’s worth your time to read–and may lighten your mood…..It did mine. After all, he could be right!”).