The number of protests has been skyrocketing nationally. Does it matter?
I described the massive turnouts at Town Halls in Indianapolis last week to my youngest son; he responded “for all the good it will do,” dismissing the effectiveness of such events. But there is scholarship showing that non-violent protests by a sufficient percentage of the population have succeeded in overcoming autocracies elsewhere.
And what is a “sufficient percentage”? Three and a half percent of the population!
If turnout at the past week’s nationwide town halls is any indication, reaching three-and-a-half percent should be very do-able. According to Google, there were 340 million Americans as of 2024. Three and a half percent would mean that we need to turn out 11 million 900 thousand nonviolent protestors.
The pre-eminent researcher in the field of protest efficacy is Erica Chenoweth of Harvard, who co-authored the book, “Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict.” In the linked interview, she explained why civil resistance campaigns that are non-violent attract many more people than violent insurrections like the horrifying one we saw on January 6th (as she notes, it’s in part it’s because there’s a much lower barrier to participation compared with picking up a weapon). It isn’t sheer numbers, of course–she explains the other factors that were necessary to successful resistances in the countries she’s studied.
There are four of them:
The first is a large and diverse participation that’s sustained.
The second thing is that [the movement] needs to elicit loyalty shifts among security forces in particular, but also other elites. Security forces are important because they ultimately are the agents of repression, and their actions largely decide how violent the confrontation with — and reaction to — the nonviolent campaign is going to be in the end. But there are other security elites, economic and business elites, state media. There are lots of different pillars that support the status quo, and if they can be disrupted or coerced into noncooperation, then that’s a decisive factor.
The third thing is that the campaigns need to be able to have more than just protests; there needs to be a lot of variation in the methods they use.
The fourth thing is that when campaigns are repressed — which is basically inevitable for those calling for major changes — they don’t either descend into chaos or opt for using violence themselves. If campaigns allow their repression to throw the movement into total disarray or they use it as a pretext to militarize their campaign, then they’re essentially co-signing what the regime wants — for the resisters to play on its own playing field. And they’re probably going to get totally crushed.
As she notes–and as the emerging American resistance has found– protesting can take many forms other than street demonstrations.
People have done things like bang pots and pans or go on electricity strikes or something otherwise disruptive that imposes costs on the regime even while people aren’t outside. Staying inside for an extended period equates to a general strike. Even limited strikes are very effective. There were limited and general strikes in Tunisia and Egypt during their uprisings and they were critical.
Chenoweth cautions that preparation for most of these methods is essential, noting that successful strikes or other methods of economic noncooperation have often been preceded by months of stockpiling food, coming up with strike funds, or finding other ways to engage community mutual aid while the strike is underway. Here in the U.S., organizations like Indivisible have demonstrated that capacity for planning and organization, and together with other grassroots organization, they’ve proven their ability to turn out large numbers of citizens.
What is so encouraging about Chenoweth’s findings is that “large numbers” does not equate to “large percentages.” As she says,
a surprisingly small proportion of the population guarantees a successful campaign: just 3.5 percent. That sounds like a really small number, but in absolute terms it’s really an impressive number of people. In the U.S., it would be around 11.5 million people today. Could you imagine if 11.5 million people — that’s about three times the size of the 2017 Women’s March — were doing something like mass noncooperation in a sustained way for nine to 18 months? Things would be totally different in this country.
April 5th should provide us with an initial indication of whether engaging that percentage will be possible. On April 5th, Indivisible and several allied organizations are mounting a nation-wide Day of Action, telling this lawless administration “Hands off our healthcare, our social security, our democracy!” Here in Indianapolis, it will take place at the Statehouse, from noon to 4:00.
I plan to be there, and hope to see many of my local readers.
3.5 percent of Indiana’s population of just under 7 million people is about 245,000.
You know how Penrod runs buses from outside parking lots? We need to get buses to bring people downtown from parking lots outside of downtown, and encourage people to carpool into downtown. Plus encourage people from downtown to attend, And on top of that, encourage people outside of Marion County, for whom it is not practical to come to Indianapolis to protest at their county courthouses! And we need to try to connect to unhappy conservatives for their participation! How many people really want to live in a Christian Nationalist nation? Not many!
We have never in the history of this nation lived under the brutality and terrorism of the entire government body against the majority of its citizens. We are actually a nation of peoples at slave level under the heavy hand of the Massa of what is now a massive Plantation foundation. An immigrant from the Apartheid nation of South Africa is wielding his whip over the fieldhand workers and learned his form of leadership by growing up with Black servants to gain experience. We have no Nelson Mandela to turn to for leadership.
Trump is busy signing Executive Orders covering issues which have not been part of any political campaign, striking at the heart of democracy. Laws are ignored, the Constitution is turning to ashes and ruling this country is not enough to feed his Massa complex, he wants to take over other countries to rule and ignores the working Americans who are the majority. The Trump/MAGA resistance to democracy, Rule of Law and the Constitution of the United States of American has certainly worked for them successfully. He is seeking more assistance from HIS Supreme Court to be allowed to break more laws of our land.
We are long past being a nation that such as Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s successful Non-Violence Movement can or will work because the rulers are aware of their battle plans and have provided self-protection by gradually overloading the Legislature, the Executive and the Judicial branches with MAGA sympathizers and fully support them. Those who could have, would have and SHOULD HAVE taken action resorted to infighting and gave away the 2024 election nation wide by not supporting the Democratic party from within and voters stayed home with no party to support.
On Friday night I attempted to attend Victoria Spartz’s sold-out town hall event in Westfield. The crowd outside the building, larger by far than the number inside, unable to gain admission to the actual event, easily exceeded a thousand people, most of whom were there for one reason: to protest Spartz and the Trump regime. Protesters stood along East Street with posters, Ukrainian flags, fists in the air and cheers for the numerous passing motorists who honked and raised fists in support. People are angry. April 5th is coming.
J. Street – I was inside. Got there at 2:20 – I was #25, doors open at 4:30 and by 6, the 500 capacity room was filled, plus media and security. We saw that many were lined up to enter, but could not get in. Glad to hear so many of you stayed to protest outside. When I left at 8, there were still maybe 100 people outside. Did you guys notice that almost half the inside group bailed about 7pm, in frustration at her inability or unwillingness to actually *answer* a question? Honestly, it was chaotic and loud, and I was dismayed at how rude some were – not only to her, but to their fellow attendees. I get the anger, I share it, but nothing is solved or ‘discussed’ or *learned* by yelling. ANYWAY, if you’re interested, the entire event is apparently available to watch on YouTube. Glad I went, not sure I’d do it again.
Joanne, as for executive orders, a lot of that stuff was covered in project 2025. If you didn’t read Heather Cox Richardson‘s blog post yesterday you should.
CNN posted the Spratz fiasco. She ignored the questions and the people calling out in order to mouth the platitudes that MAGA has provided. Her arrogance and disdain were obvious. No wonder the Speaker told Republicans to stop holding town halls. It’s bad television … and we know who really hates bad television.
Good shares! Thanks for representing Peg. I got the report from a journalist who attended. He said Spartz spoke over the crowd and didn’t address the issues, which is unsurprising since she is pro-Trump and Musk. She’s defensive of any protests. I’ll give her credit for at least showing up. I’d like to know how many who didn’t get in at Westfield will try Muncie’s event. I have my daughter, or I’d walk to City Hall to check out the crowds. If the crowd was rude in Westfield, I can’t imagine what it will be like in Muncie. LOL
Erica writes at Z Network often. Their newsletter is really good for those who want to check it out: https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/resistance-is-alive-and-well-in-the-united-states/
I’m not sure where the 3.5% comes from, but it reminds me of Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point several years ago. Unlike a single event or signed executive order, Trump and Musk have provided lots of topics for protest. His slashing the DoE will induce significant participation across the country.
I’m still waiting for their “efficiency machine” to take on the War Department (part of the actual deep state). I keep asking Musk on X when he and #DOGE will head into the Pentagon, but I don’t even get a response from an angry bot. I have never gotten a response from Musk’s groupies because most are fake bots designed for effect.
The AP has done a decent job of tallying Trump’s orders, but most of those who keep scores are behind the paywall. I’m in awe of the number of people still supporting him despite his blatant lying during his campaign and once in office. He is a typical Republican following the old strategy of “win at any cost!” The leader of the local Tea Party used to say that all the time to justify his lies. What a sad case of justification!
p.s. I’m still trying to understand why the Mississippi governor and his legislators are eliminating the income tax for their state, which is so dependent on the federal government. Now is not the time to cut out a significant source of revenue, considering the federal government is defunding the states while giving them more responsibility. Education and Medicaid defunding will cause a lot of pain. Talk about cause and effect!!!!
theres and NPR affiliate called prairie public radio, with fossilized dave thompson. theres a local news segment. fuzzy hometown,gotta be there,church dinner,ndsu fall all over yourself for. the greenpeace trial lasted 3 weeks. in all that time,there was never a word about it. yesterdays Guardian piece from Steve Doziger as a independant observer. this will probably become the norm for protests. no info, and you risk being arrested.i have no doubt about survailance. the recent time around this trial id say the town filled up with large suburbans and people who didnt fot the posture here. there was a vast silence that this trial even existed. no thanks to NPR for nodda a word about it. maybe they felt they too would become a issue here in NoDak like greenpeace for saying a word. its a corp energy friendly news blurb. howard hamm is probably smiling down at them now. ive witnessed the times, civil rights march, vietnam march, and wrong doings that got me to the capital,steps over the decades. but this was a squashed event that even the Standing Rock Sioux Tribes voice was non existant due the political fallout of this here in NoDak. energy partners trampled upon sovereign tribal land. i know this area before the protests and who was cutting that pipeline, i hauled some of their equipment to Ohio. that fact is, there was another pipeline where they wanted to lay this one. but, if they went a mere 40 miles north to washburn energy partners would have probably never raised a eye. instead they deficated on land that was never theres and used their corp bullshit to have NoDak bless them across tribal lands. fact is, they had no right to grant them a free pass. in this mick,they hired tiger/swan aka former blackwater to suppress,agitate and make trouble as they flew a yellow helocopter over them. they were on socalled local terrorist threat assesments around town.i spoke with a few as a trucker,and like them. they were under control by a central whatever to do whatever. i have a security role having a HAZ-Mat endorcement on my license. there was no terrorist where i was loading,nor was there any threat there of. they,tiger/swan was told there was. this terrorist watch was a added cost to the bill. the Standing Rock Tribe was merely protecting their land and rights, nothing else. read story,and imagine your local county news rag giving opinion before this trial with a pro white guy slam on the tribals back.
now imagine that same rag telling joe white guy the protesters are coming for your home town. i can imagine your home town security will be with vigilantes and guns on the street protecting a peaceful protest. trumps world has finally come to the streets..
Dan; whatever those Executive Orders are based on, it is not democracy, Rule of Law or the Constitution, there seems to be no way to stop Trump’s Sharpie from adding to the list of EOs daily. I don’t have to read Heather Cox Richardson, or this blog, to recognize Project 2025; I have kept up with it on numerous news sites and social media and talking to others who recognized it.
The sitting Democrats and Republicans in House and Senate, those who are actual supporting American political party members, will have to find a way to work together again to become the UNITED force this nation once had to overcome dictatorship and prevent full Fascism from becoming the foundation of this government. The simple clue to our successful American government for two and a half centuries is in one word…UNITED States of America. They have done that for almost 250 years; struggling to come together at times but managing to find workable solutions, sometimes temporary till problems could be resolved from within the UNITED parties. Just as there was no one to stop McConnell’s years of ignoring his duties and responsibilities in the Senate which became the MAGA party and the Catholic based SCOTUS leading to the current unamerican government base, there seems to no way to stop Trump, Musk and MAGA. And we certainly do NOT need more states to add to the chaos and deprivation of our human and civil rights…and what looks like a future with no living income using the return on our own invested money for years.
I did not attend Spartz’s protest in person but found the protest live online from the Indy Star. I would like to know how many more people/protestors were tuned in through the web!
I am glad Spartz held a town hall but she appeared to be ill-prepared to discuss anything. I don’t know how she got hired into office when it was clear she wasn’t listening to the people and was defensive of Trump. I don’t think she realized just how upset people were going to be with her.
If you can be there on April 5th, no matter where you are, please do.
For inspiration for the protest on the 5th, please attend the gathering to honor Martin Luther King and RFK”s famous speech the evening before at King Park. 5 PM.
Resistance by “showing up” ONLY works when the “showing up” is on election day and by folks who either haven’t been voting or not voting for democracy. Protests do not elect officials who make (or break) laws. PERIOD. The rest is “feel good and angry” stuff.
For a rare time, I agree completely with Lester. As one of my favorite authors includes in his Harry Bosch detective stories: “Get off your ass and go knock on doors.” The first part is crucial to the second, modified part, which means going to those polls and voting. Obviously, we aren’t getting a do-over from last November’s disaster.
Peg: Few people can afford the time or inconvenience to show up 3 or 4 hours early to a political event. I certainly did not expect the crowd size nor, apparently, did the Spartz camp. For those inside the venue who were rude and chaotic, rudeness and chaos were the point. Spartz has no intention of “discussing” or “solving” anything. She is merely a Trumpian MAGA-phone for policies most people were there not to discuss but to protest. There is no good time for reasoned discussion with authoritarians. They consider that a sign of the opposition’s weakness. Well over a thousand people showed up IN PROTEST. They were not there to be convinced that taking a wrecking ball to the Constitution, to the bureaucracy, to foreign affairs and to the economy is somehow in their best interests. Anyone who went to “learn” anything learned that authoritarian Spartz is tone deaf and that the people are justifiably outraged.
Thanks Vernon!
I have organized a “Hands Off” protest march in Pawleys Island, SC happening next Saturday, April 5. It’s part of a nationwide campaign happening that day. There are 265 people registered for my event. I once had a newspaper reporter tell me that for every letter (back then there was no internet) they received regarding any issue they calculated there were 1000 people who felt the same way who didn’t write. I am applying this same math to protest marchers.
BTW – Sheila, you should be on Substack – a wider audience deserves to hear you message.
https://substack.com/for-bloggers
I don’t know how any protest today would NOT be a shouting match because how do you narrow down the protest to one of two topics when Trump is using a fire hose to spray down the masses?
What subject upsets you most? What leader could request only two or three topics when there are hundreds in just two months?
Florida is feeling the pinch from the deportation epidemic. The migrant farmers and immigrants are avoiding Florida, so there is now a labor shortage. What is the De Santis crowd proposing?
The solution is to scrap child labor laws so companies can hire 14-year-olds as interns so they can pay them less than minimum wage. No shit! There are no time shift restrictions, and they can even be forced to work shifts during school weeks.
I can’t narrow down a complaint list because there is too much to wrap our heads around. At least Spartz can’t blame the Westfield protests on all the surrounding communists in Noblesville and Carmel. LOL
I don’t think Braun and Beckwith are prepared for what they will be seeing in Indy as soon as our reps refuse to meet with voters. Who do they serve? Trump or the people?
When recalling the huge protests during the Civil Rights movement, Vietnam protests, BLM marches and lots of other protests, comparing those with the small but vocal groups protesting now, with quite literally no mention in local media until very recently and obviously selective coverage, I am sad to see so few young people involved in significant numbers. Lots of older people show up. Maybe it is because they have memories of what has been gained over decades, things they worked so hard to attain being erased with one EO?
If taken for granted or not even thought about at all, how long does it take before the consequences of willful ignorance, disinterest, entitlement, or ennui come home to roost?
The fire hose of EOs coming from the dump/rat regime is intended to overwhelm, using the classic propaganda techniques of old, magnified by technology to a degree never used before, feel like a tidal wave, leaving us struggling to breath, just able to keep out heads above the water, just surviving.
Breath deeply, center your immediate concerns, then act on those concerns in any way available. We have tools never before available. Financial, cultural, political actions have consequences. Passive resistance by withdrawing our support may be the only thing some of us can do. It still is something. RESIST.
Having read history I think getting ahead of the methods of repression is necessary. Build ‘underground’ networks of trusted defenders of the common good for the rough times ahead. We will need them for support emotionally, as well as organizationally, as we are dealing with cruel, bullying forces, seeking to drain the lumber, minerals, and other resources for their own benefit. When T is used up they will find others only too willing to be bought or frightened, who have already proven able to ignore the laws or change them for their masters. This is multi pronged takeover using T as a tool. It has been well planned. CPAC had meetings in Hungary for 2 years in a row to study Ormond’s methods . The Heritage Foundation has an agreement with the Danube Institute. I do not think they were talking about fixing potholes.
History also indicates these forces can be defeated but usually it takes real general misery before enough peace loving humans will fight for fair treatment. I am 85. I expect the rest of my life will be spent seeking the common good but democracy will be won. The cause is just. We shall overcome.
Let’s see what the special elections this week produce. If the Republicans lose the two Florida elections for the US House, they will be down to a 2 vote majority and in real danger of losing the House altogether. The Republicans are already starting to run scared; witness the withdrawal of Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be UN Ambassador.
If the R’s lose the Florida elections, the D’s in the House should immediately file an impeachment motion against Trump. If the D’s support unanimously, and even a few R’s try to get on the right side, we will have another impeachment trial (# 3) for the orange anti-Christ. How many R Senators are up for re-election in 26 and 28? And how many get the message that it isn’t the Musk primary challenge that they need to worry about. It will be the Veteran and SS backlash that is going to sink their ships.
81% of Americans use Amazon Prime. What if they stopped and said they didn’t want to support oligarchs? Not a chance in Heaven – it is too “convenient”…
Thinking about the numbers, and the 3.5%: With 7 million Hoosiers in our state, that means hitting a goal of about 250,000 peaceful protestors (3.5%) statewide. With 92 counties (obviously of different population density), that is an average of about 2,600 per county – depending on the county, of course. We can do it, but let’s keep those numbers in mind. We are getting 300-600 people per Town Hall (with Reps or without), or the #Stand Up for Science rally, or Tesla takedowns in the Indianapolis area or around the state. Those are great numbers, but we will need to increase participation to at least *3,000 or more*, given the size of the Indianapolis metro area! How can we best create this uptick to get to 3.5%? Maybe as the commenter above said, for every 250 who show up that represents 1000 people, but it will take effort to make people feel comfortable to come out for peaceful non-violent protests to have the numbers better represent the 3.5%. April 5 may tell – throughout Indiana and the US.
Theresa thanks so much for that info re April 4 at Kennedy King memorial!
Don’t fret, Lester; the dumpster fire has only been burning for two months. What until Trump starts ignoring judicial rulings and the states start cutting vital programs along with the federal government? I can’t imagine young people will tolerate having their fellow students shipped back to Europe, the Middle East, or the Far East. We are only beginning to reject the oppression. If the people on this blog are correct, Trump will attack the resistance, which should bring in more protesters.
For those keeping tabs on Victoria Spartz, I can hear the protesters at Muncie’s City Hall. I don’t know if she showed up, but her reception is LOUD. If she did show up, she has more guts than her Koched-up male colleagues.
Kathy @ 10:42
You and several others have suggested I join Substack, so I have. I think. (As is probably evident, I am not digitally gifted…)
Lester:
i used e bay a few times to limited items,that are not mainstream, that came to a end when i relized pete thiel was exploiting his paypal to support the very people who are screwing the working class and,small buisness. conveinence is lazy,and stops the tracking of like suppliers who,may give a damn. unless someone answers a phone on the other end, screw em. take command and screw amazon/facecrook,.the exploitation of your privacy alone should scare you.
Lester and Vernon. We don’t get a do over of the election, but if we demonstrate our outrage, it WILL have an effect on elected officials. Not all of them, sure but it doesn’t take all of them to flip the balance of power. If we get them running scared (of defeat, not physical attacks) it will change how they behave before the next election. Be a first mover and others will join.
I heard there was an altercation at the Muncie town hall with Victoria Spartz. Two Trump supporters left the hall and came back with a bullhorn and started talking over everybody else outside. Then there was some pushing involved from the other protesters and the police broke it up.
JoAnn, that first paragraph says it all!
Sheila — I think I found you on Substack . A search turned up Sheila Kennedy @sheilakennedy
retired
and also
“This is Sheila’s Substack”
Why don’t you write a brief paragraph just so those of us that want to follow you on there know it’s really you. There’s another Sheils Kennedy but she’s @stripesofpower and is an “Empowerment Junkie.”
Suzanne,
I saw a video of the first five minutes, and the police (4-5 of them) removed a young lady who interrupted Spartz’s presentation. Spartz thought she was coming to do a presentation on why she supports Trump/Musk. The attendees didn’t give a shit about her presentation. If Westfield was bad, I knew Muncie would be a mess.
Sheila, could you please “headline” the April 5 Day of Action this week? Make sure everyone knows about the action just in case they don’t read the entire article. I’m forwarding your column!
Thank you.
A good strong unified message: VOTE OUT REPUBLICANS!
Regarding the 4th point, Trump and the Republicans will be waiting for violence and property damage, so they can call out the protesters as hooligans. The point I dropped by to make is that it won’t actually matter if there is violence or not, they will _say_ it’s been violent regardless, and follow their typical gameplan. And the Fox viewers will believe them.