Category Archives: Random Blogging

When People Have No Idea what They’re Doing

Simon Rosenberg recently explained what even minimally-informed people know: mass deportation–if it occurs– will raise prices for Americans, disrupt businesses and slow growth. (Of course, growth is already tanking as a result of Trump’s on-and-off tariffs. When even the Wall Street Journal calls a GOP economic policy “stupid,” you can pretty much assume widespread agreement among people who can spell “economics.”) Rosenberg noted that even the threat of deportations is having its effect; victims of crime and witnesses aren’t showing up for court dates because they are afraid ICE will seize them. “That means cases can’t be prosecuted and that means criminals stay free to commit more crimes. Party of law and order my sweet Aunt Annie.”

Speaking of “law and order,” there are reports that the administration is considering a pardon for Derek Chauvin, who killed George Floyd on camera. Such a pardon would be further evidence of the GOP effort to return the U.S. to the days of Jim Crow.

Let’s be candid. The daily havoc being applauded by Trump supporters demonstrates the profound ignorance of the MAGA cult–as does their rejection of expertise as “elitist,” and their inability to recognize the all-too-obvious effects of Trump/Musk actions.

Research confirms that the polarization that characterizes our politics is largely between the informed and uninformed. (For confirmation, you can review the occasional comment from trolls on this blog.) 

The monumental ignorance shown by those cheering Trump and Vance’s thuggish behavior toward Ukraine is a perfect example. In a recent post to The Bulwark, Jonathan Last wrote.

Donald Trump and Republicans explain their worldview by calling it “America First.” That’s a lie.

American foreign policy has always put America first. That’s what nations do. It’s axiomatic. Why did the United States do Lend-Lease with Britain before we entered World War II and bankroll the Marshall Plan afterwards? Why did we airlift supplies into West Berlin? Why did we spend trillions of dollars on nuclear weapons that have never been used? Why do we police the global shipping lanes and ensure stability in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East?

It’s not because we’re nice.

It’s because these actions further our interests. They make America safer and wealthier. They check the rise of rival powers. They put America first.

I urge you to read Last’s entire essay–especially his explanation of “Pax America.”  As he writes, for 75 years after the Second World War, the U.S. was the dominant global power. No country, anywhere on earth, could act without considering our interests.

The relationships in NATO, and among the Five Eyes, and with America’s other really close allies—Japan, South Korea—aren’t merely military agreements. They’re kinships. They transcend peace and war; they’re diplomatic, political, cultural, and economic.

Again: This is leverage. It means that when we go to war, we bring a huge crew with us. Other countries are willing to expend resources, and even shed blood, to stay aligned with us. Even for a contentious war like Iraq, we got nearly 40 countries to participate in some way or another.

This makes things cheaper for us. The Soviet Union and China and Iran have to spend money to dominate and subjugate their clients. Our allies spend money on our behalf, pursuing our interests, because we have shaped them in our image.

As Last writes, no country has ever been more globally dominant–and that dominance has largely been a function of our wealth–our ability to spend money.

Here is the thing you must understand: America will win any contest determined by the ability to spend money.

Rightly understood, this is just another example of how America created rules to benefit ourselves: Of course the richest country in history would build a system in which it could exert influence on the global order by spending money: Because the ability to spend money is one of our key advantages.

And yet today’s “America First” class thinks that spending money in order to shape the world is some kind of weakness…

Why do we spend $10 billion a year fighting HIV/AIDS in foreign countries? I have to keep saying this: It’s not because we’re nice.

We spend that money in order to stabilize the global order. If AIDS runs wild in one country, that creates ripple effects. It destabilizes the local economy, risking political instability, which in turn risks regional instability. All of which poses some small danger to the established order which—QED—benefits America.

We spend that $10 billion to preserve the system that benefits us.

That’s what soft power is.

When people in charge are clueless about how the world works, the world no longer works for us. Thanks, MAGA….

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The Evidence Mounts

Remember The Manchurian Candidate? The story centers on a Korean War veteran who is part of a prominent political family. He’s brainwashed by communists after his Army platoon is captured, and when he returns home, he becomes an unwitting assassin in an international communist conspiracy. 

I’m beginning to see uncomfortable parallels with that fictional plot.

I’m loathe to give credence to the longstanding assertion that Trump is a knowing Russian asset–after all, it’s improbable that this pathetic bundle of ego and ignorance is a “knowing” anything. A recent article from the Kviv Independent does make that case, however, the author writing

Questions about U.S. President Donald Trump’s possibly shady relationship with Russia and the country’s security services have long swirled, even culminating in a special counsel investigation during his first term in office.

Though that investigation found evidence of “extensive criminal activity” by Trump, his associates, and some of his family members, it found no evidence that he was working for, or had ever been recruited by, Russia’s security services.

Yet despite this, the topic refuses to go away — most recently in a viral Facebook post from a former Kazakh security official that claimed Trump was recruited by the Soviet Union’s spy agency, the KGB, in 1987 and given the code name “Krasnov.”

Craig Unger, an American journalist and writer who has written two books on Trump’s connections to Russia’s security services and the Russian mafia stretching all the way back to the 1980s, says he is “absolutely certain” that the U.S. president is a Russian asset.

You can click through and read Unger’s arguments, but just as the central figure in the Manchurian Candidate was unaware of his brainwashing, I think it unlikely that Trump is consciously pursuing his pro-Russian, pro-Putin, anti-American rampage.

That, of course, doesn’t make his actions any less destructive. And it does raise a question about the operatives he is installing in various agencies of the federal government. Among the clowns, predators and preening incompetents, there are clearly some who are knowingly–and purposely– acting as Russian agents. Talking Points Memo recently reported on one of them.

Before Peter Marocco was selected to dismantle America’s entire foreign aid sector on behalf of President Donald Trump, he was an official with the State Department on a diplomatic mission.

During Trump’s first term, Marocco was a Trump appointee tasked with promoting stability in areas with armed conflict. In 2018, he made a two-week trip to the Balkans in what was advertised as an effort to counter extremism and strengthen inter-religious dialogue.

American diplomacy is carefully prescribed, identifying both the people officials should meet and those they should avoid.  On that 2018 visit to the Balkans, Marocco secretly met with officials, including Milorad Dodik, whom the American government had determined were off-limits: Bosnian Serb separatist leaders who had been working for years to undermine the American-backed peace deal and to promote a Christian Bosnian Serb state….

At the time, Dodik was under U.S. sanctions for actively obstructing American efforts to prevent more bloodshed. Dodik has since described himself as “pro-Russian, anti-Western and anti-American” in a meeting with Putin. Nevertheless, Trump has named Marocco to a senior post at the U.S. Agency for International Development, where he’s attempted to halt dozens of programs. Former colleagues describe his agenda as “overtly militaristic and Christian nationalist.” 

Trump has made Marocco the director for foreign assistance at the State Department, and deputy administrator of USAID —  the two agencies that previously rejected him. “And unlike last time, Marocco is now without strictures and answers to few in the executive branch besides Trump himself.”

Immediately after the inauguration last month, Marocco drafted the order shutting down all of USAID’s programs and freezing foreign aid. He’s led the efforts to place nearly all of the agency’s staff on administrative leave, though the courts have temporarily lifted many of those. Much of USAID’s work has not resumed, according to interviews with dozens of government employees and nongovernmental organizations, despite the State Department’s claim that waivers allow work involving “core lifesaving medicine, medical services, food, shelter and substance assistance” to continue.

The article has much more detail about Marocco’s past activities–all of which raise the question why he has been empowered to orchestrate the Trump administration’s foreign aid policy.

TPM also reports that Rubio and Marocco have now

completely ended nearly 10,000 aid programs — including those they had granted waivers just days earlier — saying the programs did not align with Trump’s agenda. The move consigns untold numbers of the world’s poorest children, refugees and other vulnerable people to death, according to several senior federal officials. Local authorities have already begun estimating a death toll in the hundreds of thousands.

It hardly matters whether Trump is a knowing Russian asset….

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Why Economic Ignorance Matters

America’s election of Donald Trump–horrifying and destructive as it was and is–was part of a global lurch to the Right, and that lurch can be attributed to one over-riding factor: a negative reaction to immigration. There are a lot of moving parts to that reaction, but I want to focus on one inarguable element of MAGA’s hatred of (certain) immigrants–a hatred that blinds the economically-ignorant to the predictable consequences of mass deportations.

Racism has always been the central part of Trump’s appeal, and his promises to “protect” the border have, accordingly, focused on the southern border. When he talks about limiting illegal immigration, it is quite clear that he is talking about poor brown and Black people, not the rich, or the stray Canadian or Norwegian.

The promised massive deportations have yet to occur, but early reports reflect two “Trumpian” realities: his disregard for legal and constitutional niceties, and his ignorance of the way the economy works. It isn’t just his love of tariffs that illustrates that ignorance; he clearly has no comprehension of the importance of both legal and illegal immigrants in selected sectors of the economy.

In his first few weeks back in office, Trump has consistently ignored the law, so it isn’t surprising that early “roundups” have frequently crossed the constitutional line. As Paul Krugman recently noted, “if you make it clear that respecting the rights of the accused is a liberal, DEI thing, of course some ICE and Border Control agents will run wild. Basically, anyone with brown skin will be at risk of at least temporary detention.”

And speaking of risk, even though the number of immigrants arrested is small so far, Krugman and others point out that  the raids that have occurred have already inspired widespread fear.  Some workers have stayed home rather than coming to work. Others have returned to their home countries. And some businesses have even laid off valuable employees for fear that they may be raided.

In the linked essay, Krugman offers charts documenting the likely economic impact of widespread deportations, beginning with the fact that almost 1 in 5 U.S. workers is foreign-born. Most of those are here legally, but unauthorized immigrants make up around 5 percent of the work force.

Losing a large fraction of these workers would be a serious blow to the economy, especially because immigrants, legal and not, play a much bigger role in some industries and occupations than they do in the economy as a whole.

Agriculture is the most striking example: Immigrants — many of them undocumented — make up most of the farm labor force.

Push those workers out, either by actual deportation or detention or simply by creating a climate of fear, and just watch what happens to grocery prices.

About a quarter of construction industry employees are immigrants — 40 percent in Texas and California — but this number rises to 31 percent if you look only at “construction trades,” i.e., people who actually build stuff as opposed to working in offices or marketing. And the immigrant share is much higher in particular trades.

So at a time when Americans are still angry about the price of groceries and, with more justification, about the unaffordability of housing, Trump’s immigrant crackdown seems set to hobble food production and home construction.

Krugman notes that Trump can probably call off most of his threatened tariffs, granting exemptions in return for concessions benefitting him personally, but his constant, ugly screeds against (certain) immigrants have played into racial hatreds that can’t easily be reined in.

I have previously posted about the gap between immigration facts and the fallacies that allow MAGA bigots to use migrants as a handy wedge issue. As I said then, if anyone harbors doubts about the GOP’s entirely political approach to what the media routinely calls the “border crisis,” it should have been dispelled when Republicans abruptly walked away from a bipartisan proposal that–after difficult negotiations–had given them pretty much everything they’d been demanding, so they could use the “border crisis” as a campaign issue.

And speaking of the border–most of the 11 million immigrants who are here illegally flew in and overstayed their visas.

America’s anti-immigrant hysteria is central to today’s White Christian Nationalism. Of course, there has always been a nativist streak in America; Ellis Island was first established to keep “undesirables” from entering the country. “Give me your tired, your poor, your masses yearning to breathe free” was Emma Lazarus’ response to the Chinese Exclusion Act. The Know-Nothing Party was formed largely by people who feared that Irish Catholic immigrants would take jobs from God-fearing Protestant “real Americans.”

We haven’t come very far, and MAGA wants to take us back……

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Us Against The World

Before the shameful bullying session in the Oval Office, President Zelensky sent a memorandum to Trump, in which he detailed the numerous talks between Russia and Ukraine since 2014– talks that resulted in twenty cease-fire agreements, every one of which Russia violated. 

Sentient Americans–a category that excludes MAGA Republicans–know that Trump has absolutely no understanding of history or diplomacy, not to mention a lack of competence that those in his clown show of an administration clearly share. Consequently, the United States is going down the path of the British Empire, which was once a global power covering around a quarter of Earth’s land surface and ruling over 458 million people before it lost its dominance. Perhaps our own nation’s decline would have occurred in due course in any event, but the would-be autocrats busily demolishing our democracy have certainly accelerated the process.

A newsletter I receive (link unavailable) has reported on the reactions of our (former) allies to the embarrassing spectacle.

After Trump and Vance’s disgraceful Oval Office ambush of President Zelensky, major world players just came out to defend Ukraine and Zelensky:

– POLISH PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK: “Dear Zelensky, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone.”

– PRESIDENT OF LITHUANIA GITANAS NAUSEA: “Ukraine, you’ll never walk alone.”

– Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen: “Dear Zelensky, Denmark proudly stands with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.”

– FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUAL MACRON: “There is an aggressor: Russia. There is a people being aggressed: Ukraine. We were all right to help Ukraine and sanction Russia three years ago and to continue doing so. We, that’s the Americans, the Europeans, Canadians, Japanese, and many others… Because they are fighting for their dignity, their independence, for their children, and for the security of Europe.”

– PRESIDENT OF MOLDOVA MAIA SANDU: “The truth is simple. Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia is the aggressor. Ukraine defends its freedom—and ours. We stand with Ukraine.”

– SWEDISH PRIME MINISTER ULF KRISTERSSON: “Sweden stands with Ukraine. You are not only fighting for your freedom but also for all of Europe’s. Slava Ukraini! ”

– INCOMING GERMAN CHANCELLOR FRIEDRICH MER: “Dear Zelenskyy, we stand with Ukraine in good and in testing times. We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war.

– CROATIA’S PRIME MINISTER ANDREJ PLENKOVIĆ: “Croatia knows from its own experience that only a just peace can last. The Croatian Government stands firm in its belief that Ukraine needs such a peace – a peace that means sovereignty, territorial integrity, and a secure Europe.”

– FINLAND’S PRIME MINISTER PETTERI ORPO: “Finland and the Finnish people stand firmly with Ukraine. We will continue our unwavering support and work towards a just and lasting peace.”

– ESTONIAN PRIME MINISTER KRISTEN MICHAL: “We stand united with Zelenskyy and Ukraine in our fight for freedom. Always. Because it is right, not easy.”

– IRELAND’S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SIMON HARRIS: “Ukraine is not to blame for this war brought about by Russia’s illegal invasion. We stand with Ukraine.“

– LATVIA’S PRESIDENT EDGARS RINKEVICS: “Ukraine is a victim of the Russian aggression. It fights the war with the help from many friends and partners. We need to spare no effort for just and lasting peace. Latvia stands with Ukraine”

– PRIME MINISTER OF THE NETHERLANDS DICK SCHOOF: ”The Netherlands supports Ukraine as firmly as ever. Now more than ever. We want a lasting peace and an end to the war of aggression started by Russia. For Ukraine and its people, and for Europe.”

– PRIME MINISTER OF LUXEMBOURG LUC FRIEDSEN: “Luxembourg stands with Ukraine. You are fighting for your freedom and a rules based international order. ”

Trump and MAGA may live in an alternate reality, but Europe doesn’t.

Rational Americans are appalled by Trump and Vance’s fact-free, transactional assault on a country fighting for its democratic sovereignty. (In the wake of that embarrassing display of pro-Putin bullying, Vance took his family to Vermont to ski, where thousands of outraged protesters lined the streets, calling him a traitor and telling him to go ski in Russia.)

Republicans, however, continue to pander to Trump’s cult.

Indiana’s odious governor, Mike Braun, issued a statement characteristically at odds with reality, saying: “President Trump and Vice President Vance are showing the world what strong, accountable, America First leadership looks like.” Senators like Lindsay Graham are scrambling to adjust their beliefs to Trump’s fantasy world. (Graham’s old friend John McCain is undoubtedly spinning in his grave at Graham’s policy U-Turns.)

Today’s elected Republicans fall in one of two–and only two– camps: clueless/fanatic White Christian Nationalists and spineless sycophants.

When the megalomaniacs said they were going to “move fast and break things,” too few voters understood that what they were breaking was America.

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If you want to understand the disastrous budget Republicans are trying to pass–and the process they’ll need to negotiate to do that–I will be doing a Zoom interview of Economics Professor Denvil Duncan from 7:00 to 8:00 on Wednesday night, for the Central Indiana Indivisible chapter. You can register here.

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Heroic And Principled

When I was growing up, in a time-frame not all that far removed from the Second World War, it wasn’t uncommon for people to ask ourselves “What would I have done if I’d been an average German citizen during the Nazi era? Would I have had the courage to hide a Jewish person? To protest?”

I’ve always been suspicious of the folks who confidently assert that they’d have stood with the moral minority; when an entire society has decided to go along with power and barbarism –either because they agree that their problems have been caused by “those people” or because it has become very dangerous to object–history tells us it is the rare individual who will risk fiscal or personal harm to resist.

I am gratified to report that–in this dangerous time– America is not devoid of such individuals.

Recent reports confirm the principled resignations of twenty-one workers from DOGE.

More than 20 civil service employees resigned Tuesday from billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, saying they were refusing to use their technical expertise to “dismantle critical public services.”

“We swore to serve the American people and uphold our oath to the Constitution across presidential administrations,” the 21 staffers wrote in a joint resignation letter, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press. “However, it has become clear that we can no longer honor those commitments.”

The employees also warned that many of those enlisted by Musk to help him slash the size of the federal government under President Donald Trump’s administration were political ideologues who did not have the necessary skills or experience for the task ahead of them.

This report follows widespread coverage of the departures of several principled lawyers in the Department of Justice, some of whose scathing letters have been widely circulated. 

And now, the two top designers at Tesla have left the company.

While the linked report didn’t include the reason these two resigned, it did note that the departure of these two pivotal figures comes at a time when Tesla is experiencing huge problems, significantly exacerbated by popular anger at Musk’s efforts to destroy American government.

Last year was terrible for Tesla. Bad financials. Multiple recalls. Abysmal safety record. Lawsuits. The Cybertruck disaster and cratering sales. All of it tied to design problems and lack of innovation. Add to that the dip in brand loyalty thanks to CEO Elon Musk’s toxic political activity, of course.

The article noted that this confluence of problems has led one of Tesla’s biggest market supporters to warn that the company may implode in 2025.

In recent years, Tesla has faced increasing scrutiny because of poor quality, poor design choices, and the poor personal choices of its founder. Until very recently, the Texas-based automaker has been able to ride out those storms by being the only game in town. But as the legacy manufacturers upped their electric vehicle game and stepped into the market, Tesla’s many faults have became more obvious.

The departure of top designers comes as Tesla’s sales are cratering–European sales are down 45% from last year, and the media is filled with reports of Tesla owners–famous and not–returning their cars in order to protest Musk and DOGE. 

Tesla’s problems don’t just diminish Musk’s net worth; they also provide a corrective to the myth that he is a successful entrepreneur. Much like Donald Trump, Musk’s fortune began with a large inheritance from his father. He did not “invent” the Tesla–he bought the company, and contrary to carefully nurtured PR, its early success was largely a matter of timing and lack of competition. While his business operations haven’t been the outright frauds that six-bankruptcy-Donald’s have been, his fortune has been built largely with taxpayer dollars, through billion-dollar contracts with the federal government–contracts that DOGE is protecting by shutting down agencies that were investigating charges of corruption in his companies.

Resignations by principled public servants are admirable. Unlike the billionaires (like Bezos) who immediately bent a knee to our would-be overlords, most of these people lack significant resources to fall back on–and by earning the enmity of the Trumpers, they will face barriers to their prospects for substitute employment 

Quitting their jobs took guts. 

Most of us lack the ability to resist in so public or significant a fashion, but the example provided by these individuals should reinforce our resolve to do those things we can do–join grassroots organizations, call and visit our Senators and Representatives, turn out for demonstrations, engage in boycotts…

If “good Germans” could hide Jews in their attics and principled Americans can quit their jobs, the rest of us can incur some inconveniences.

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