The Big Sort

I have frequently cited a 2009 book by Bill Bishop, titled “The Big Sort.” Bishop pointed to a then-emerging trend of “voting with one’s feet”–the tendency of many Americans to relocate to places that they find philosophically and politically compatible. The consequences of such sorting can be troubling. What happens when most neighbors agree with your outlook and values, reducing the need to accommodate disagreement or defend your woldview?

I read “The Big Sort” when it first came out, but I still ponder many of the issues it raised. One issue that it didn’t raise, however–at least, I don’t recall Bishop paying attention to it–involved “macro” outcomes: what if the sorting led to very different economic and quality-of-life differences between what we’ve come to identify as “Red” and “Blue” parts of the country?

More than a decade after the book, we are seeing major differences emerge. A recent column by Michael Hicks focused directly on that outcome. As he writes,

Of the 20 richest states today, 19 are solidly Democratic. Of the poorest 20 states, 19 are solidly Republican. The GOP dominates in poor, slowly growing states, while the Democrats dominate politics of prosperous, faster-growing states.

Hicks notes that these differences are largely an outcome of the nationalization of our politics. In former times–in fact, up until the late 1990s– there were conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans. But then, state parties began to align with national politics.

Even races for local municipal government tend to be nationalized. State and local issues are often ignored, or barely discussed in primary or general elections. The homogeneity of national politics will naturally cause parties to represent more similar places.

Hicks then echoes Bishop, finding household sorting by politics. “Though most sorting happens at the sub-state level” (presumably, rural and urban) “the nationalization of politics means that state borders now affect household location choice.” Voters are choosing the political landscapes they prefer.

Hicks notes that when he began researching state and local policy some quarter-century ago, state legislators focused more on local issues; now, many take their “legislative marching orders from national think tanks or national parties. Today, elected leaders from both parties are expected to advance similar legislation, typically written by think tanks, everywhere at once.” (That is certainly the case in Indiana, where our dreadful General Assembly obediently does ALEC’s bidding.)

Education, Hicks tells us, is the most consequential policy difference between thriving Blue states and struggling Red states like Indiana.

The most likely cause of divergence between rich and poor places is the fact that human capital — education, innovation and invention — replaced manufacturing and movement of goods as the primary source of prosperity. In other words, places that grow will collect more human capital. However, the educational policies pursued by both parties are vastly different.

The GOP has largely tried to adopt broad school choice, while cutting funding to both K-12 schools and higher education. The Democrats have largely eschewed school choice, but amply fund both K-12 and higher education. Today, 17 of the 20 states with high educational spending are Democratically controlled and 17 out of the 20 lowest funded states are GOP strongholds.

There’s more to education than spending. Still, higher educational spending, even if it means higher tax rates, is leading to enrollment and population growth. Educational attainment differences alone explain about three quarters of the difference in per capita income between states.

At the same time, school choice effects are smaller than almost anyone hoped or expected. Today, it’s clear that the average student in private school underperforms their public school counterparts (charter schools tend to out-perform both). So, if poor states spend less on education and rely more on school choice, they will become poorer than states spending more on public education.

Economists have been saying this for three decades, with little effect. The prognosis is simply that poor states like Indiana are going to get poorer for decades to come while rich states will grow richer.

Here in Indiana, incoming Governor Braun has made expansion of the state’s voucher program a key priority. He wants to make it “universal,” meaning the eradication of income limits. Indiana’s program is already disproportionately used by upper-middle-class parents; Braun’s proposed giveaway would allow participation by even more privileged families (So much for the pious assurances that vouchers would allow poor children to escape “failing” public schools.)

Vouchers don’t improve educational outcomes, and they drain critical resources from the public schools that continue to serve the overwhelming majority of Indiana children.

If Hicks is reading the data correctly–and I believe he is–states like Indiana will continue to decline, and educated citizens will choose to move elsewhere.

Continuing the “sort.”

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Be Careful What You Wish For…Chevron Edition

Among the Supreme Court’s numerous retreats from what had long been considered “settled law” was a ruling that received relatively little publicity. The general public can be forgiven for failing to realize just how startling–and wrongheaded–the Court’s abandonment of something called “Chevron deference” really was, but the legal community certainly understood the decision as a monumental retreat from precedent and respect for expertise–not to mention an unwarranted increase in judicial power.

Chevron deference was shorthand for a judicial doctrine that has been applied for 40 years in over 18,000 decisions to situations where Congress sends ambiguous directions to executive agencies staffed with people who are experts in the particular area. That ambiguity is necessary; Congress isn’t equipped to determine the proper levels of contaminants in water or to identify carcinogenic chemicals–and even if such specifics were passed, they would be incredibly difficult to monitor and update as technical knowledge advances. 

Recognizing that practical reality, Courts have deferred to agency interpretations/clarifications of those ambiguities, recognizing that judges–like Congresspersons– generally lack the specific technical knowledge required.

The required deference could certainly be overcome. If a plaintiff challenging the agency’s interpretations provided evidence that agency interpretations were unreasonable, Courts could–and did–overrule them. Deference simply required the judicial branch to acknowledge–and respect– the existence of specialized subject-matter expertise, and to recognize that the possession of superior legal knowledge does not make the judicial branch all-knowing.

As an article from Pro Publica reported,

That doctrine, known as Chevron deference, was named after the 1984 Supreme Court case in which it emerged, and it offered an answer to a recurring question: What happens when Congress passes a law granting power to a federal agency but fails to precisely define the boundaries of that power?

In such situations, the doctrine of Chevron deference instructed federal judges to rely on the interpretations made by federal agencies, as long as those interpretations were reasonable, since agencies typically have greater expertise in their subject areas than judges. The Loper Bright decision erased that, commanding federal judges to “exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority.”

Legal scholars condemned the Loper ruling as yet another departure from stare decisis–respect for precedent–and as an unwarranted departure from a reasonable balance between executive and judicial authority. Those intent upon reducing federal authority–and regulations–cheered it.

But it turns out that the Chevron decision might take its place alongside Dobbs, as a judicial overreach that ideologues may regret. (Dobbs was largely responsible for the non-appearance of the anticipated “Red wave” in 2022.)

A recent article from Stateline suggests that the ruling will allow Blue states to more effectively resist Trump Administration policies.

A major U.S. Supreme Court decision this summer was hailed as a conservative court’s broadside against a Democratic administration, giving red states more backing to delay or overturn policies they don’t like, such as transgender protections and clean energy goals.

But the ruling in the Loper Bright case, which granted courts more power to scrutinize federal rules, can go both ways. Experts say it will likely give blue states more leeway to attack any forthcoming policy changes from President-elect Donald Trump — ranging from immigration and the environment to Medicaid and civil rights.

Lawsuits already are being planned in many states. California is holding a special session to set aside money for legal fights, and Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey and New York also are considering legal strategies

Democratic governors in Colorado and Illinois formed a coalition in November to “fortify essential democratic rights nationwide.”

In effect, the ruling opens more federal rules to those court challenges. Blue states now have a new weapon to fight conservative federal rules on issues such as immigration, climate change, abortion access and civil rights….

Most experts see the change as an obstacle to a new Republican administration looking to make sweeping changes but lacking enough support in Congress to pass large-scale legislation. Any proposals restricting access to abortion or attempting to dismantle the Affordable Care Act or Medicaid expansion will be more complicated, said Zachary Baron, a director of the Center for Health Policy and the Law at Georgetown University’s O’Neill Institute.

Our fractious, gerrymandered Congress hasn’t approved a major immigration or environmental law for decades. That Congressional inability to legislate “has forced both Democratic and Republican administrations to change policy through either executive order or federal regulations that can now be more easily challenged by hostile states in the courts.”

The Loper decision hobbled some of the Biden Administration’s regulatory efforts. The linked article points to a number of ways in which it will also complicate–and prevent–measures threatened by the incoming Trump administration. 

Sauce for the goose……

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Organizing For Resistance

I spoke about Hoosiers’ post-election options to a group of volunteers at a Women 4 Change event a couple of days ago. Here’s what I told them. Much of it will sound familiar….

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I’ve done a lot of thinking since the election. Some of my conclusions are pretty obvious:

Americans don’t occupy a common reality, thanks to our information environment. It isn’t just the fragmentation and the ease with which we can all indulge our confirmation biases, although that’s a big part of it. It’s also the case that Rightwing propaganda sites are all pumping out and reinforcing the same talking points, misinformation and propaganda. The result is that many people occupy bubbles impervious to inconvenient facts.

We know that Americans are polarized between educated and uneducated, informed and uninformed people. In November, voters who reported following political news went for Harris by 8 points, while voters who reported seldom or never following the news went for Trump by 19 points.

During the campaign, we were repeatedly told that the election was a battle for American democracy. But we’ve already lost that battle. We lost it in 2010, when the Republican RedMap project was successful in gerrymandering across the country. W4C has been fighting Indiana’s extreme gerrymandering—thus far, without success—so you all understand how pernicious partisan redistricting is. Not only does it tilt the playing field, it suppresses turnout. Since 2010, Republicans have exercised power vastly in excess of their percentage of the vote, especially in the U.S. House and in statehouses around the country. That’s especially been the case in states like Indiana where we don’t have  access to mechanisms like referenda or initiatives.

The question, as always, is what can groups like W4C do? How do we counter the loss of democratic decision-making?

Here’s my preliminary “take” on that question:

  • We need to focus on Indiana. Our resources are limited, and the likelihood that we can have much of an effect elsewhere is minimal.
  • We need to communicate. Not just with each other—although that’s helpful too—but in ways calculated to break through to those who follow only Rightwing news sources or none at all. I’ve been working with Hoosiers 4 Democracy to plan a peaceful protest on Monument Circle, to take place on the day of the Inauguration. We will bring together people representing as many parts of the community as possible, to explain why we resist the profound anti-Americanism of the coming administration. It should be covered by Indiana media outlets.
  • What we need, however, goes far beyond such isolated events. We need a plan to take factual information into all parts of the state, to people who haven’t been paying attention, who haven’t been voting, who aren’t going to visit blogs and websites and credible media that don’t reinforce the misinformation that makes them comfortable.
  • Ideally, that plan should be produced by a “pro-democracy” coalition that includes as many partners as possible: the ACLU, faith leaders, Common Cause, W4C, H4D, etc. etc. The coalition should plan a two-pronged movement: one focused on penetrating the (largely rural) information bubble, and one focused on the General Assembly. With respect to the legislature, my own preference would be to lobby for a referendum. Indiana’s legislators will not abandon gerrymandering, because they benefit from it– most owe their seats to it. If we could at least generate support for a referendum, in the future we could use that process to overturn gerrymandering.

The next few years are going to be difficult—and pivotal. We have some assets: at the state level; extremist Christian Nationalists like Micah Beckwith offend a lot of people who typically vote Republican. At the national level, if Trump follows through with his promises (threats?), the negative effects will be pretty immediate and hard to ignore.

Our job should be to ensure that Hoosiers know what these people are doing, and why their actions are inconsistent with the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, basic ethics and common sense.

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Hopelessly Undemocratic Indiana

We can’t “save” a democracy we’ve already lost. (See yesterday’s post.) The real question is: can we regain it?

Indiana is a case in point. Extreme gerrymandering ensures a Republican legislative supermajority–not simply because lawmakers have distributed voters to ensure GOP dominance, but because that tactic is far and away the most effective form of voter suppression. There’s a reason Indiana’s turnout is one of the lowest in the country; voters deprived of competitive contests see no reason to cast a ballot. (What’s ironic is that several of these districts would actually be competitive if turnout increased…)

Indiana also lacks an initiative or referendum. Hoosiers thus have absolutely no recourse, no way to counter legislation that ignores the preferences of the majority. And our GOP overlords routinely ignore those preferences–polling regularly shows citizen sentiments at odds with the extremism of those we’ve “elected.”

A friend with Hoosiers 4 Democracy looked at Governor-elect Mike Braun’s recently published policy agenda, and shared examples demonstrating that deviance.

She noted that Braun promises to “faithfully execute SEA 1 (2022).” SEA 1 was the draconian abortion ban passed by our legislature immediately after the decision in Dobbs. Polls of Indiana voters consistently demonstrate that a large majority of Hoosiers support access to abortion through at least the first trimester, and narrower majorities support access beyond. Nevertheless, Braun’s policy agenda includes a promise to  “Ensure SEA 1 (2022) implementation is in accordance with statute in a way that provides transparency and certainty for the public and medical providers.”

How nice of him to advocate for “transparency” of a measure with which most Hoosiers strongly disagree–a measure that has already created “maternity deserts” as Ob-Gyn practitioners flee the state.

Then there’s Braun’s promise to “protect Hoosier girls from biological males who attempt to compete in girls’ sports.” That language joins a provision to “respect the rights of parents”–language we hear from the extreme Right-wing parents who’ve been trying to ban books and require school officials to “out” children. Here’s the language he uses to beat up on trans youth:

In 2022, the Indiana General Assembly passed HEA 1041 to protect the girls on the field of play. The State should continue to ensure that biological males will not compete against our girls on the court, in the pool, or invade the privacy of their locker rooms.

Require schools to respect and uphold the rights of parents as the decision-makers in their children’s lives, education, and upbringing. This includes directly notifying parents about any physical or mental health concerns that arise at school, such as requests to use a name or pronouns that are inconsistent with biological sex.

In 2023, the Indiana General Assembly passed HEA 1608 to protect this fundamental parental right.

In other parts of the document, Braun inadvertently highlights the logical outcome of Indiana’s regressive legislation. He notes that “Indiana continues to struggle in retaining college graduates as nearly 40% of graduates leave within one year of graduation, and more high school students are choosing to attend university elsewhere (8%).” He also notes that too few Indiana students pursue a college education. “Every year, approximately 75,000 Hoosiers graduate from high school. While half of these students enroll in college the other half pursue other opportunities…. ”

That’s even worse than it sounds. As the friend who sent me Braun’s agenda noted, of the 75,000 who graduate, 32,500 enroll in college. But enrollment isn’t the same thing as completion. Indiana’s college degree completion rate is 66%.  Approximately 21,000 students will graduate within 6 years, and of those, 40% leave the state. That means Indiana has approximately 12,500 new college graduates who join the state’s workforce each year (about 140 per county if they were equally spread out–which they aren’t. Most choose to live and work in cities–primarily Indianapolis–where employment opportunities and social amenities are more plentiful.)

The fact that Indiana has fewer educated citizens than other states is a major reason we have trouble luring employers, and the reason that–as Braun’s agenda also notes–“Indiana faces workforce shortages (e.g., additional 5000 nurses needed by 2031), skill mismatches, and struggles to retain college graduates.”

Bottom line: legislators and administrators who gain public office by choosing their voters can–and do–ignore the wishes of their constituents. Citizens stop participating in the political process, believing it’s a waste of time and effort. They tune out. As a result, the only people who cast ballots are the most committed partisans.

We end up “electing” statewide candidates who, like Braun, go along with the current GOP’s extreme, anti-American “agenda,” or the even more extreme (and embarrassing) Christian Nationalists like Beckwith and Banks, or corrupt posturers like Todd Rokita.

Indiana isn’t a democracy, and our overlords want to see to it that we don’t become one.

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We’ve Already Lost Democracy

The recently concluded election was characterized by claims that it was an election to save democracy. While the threat Trump and MAGA pose to America’s form of government is obvious and very real, that argument ignored a very unpleasant reality: We the People no longer choose our public officials. We are no longer a democratic republic. In the 2010 redistricting, Republicans managed a bloodless coup with RedMap, completing a process that had been developing over a number of years. While most of us went about our daily business, we failed to notice that a majority of voters no longer decided elections.

If you doubt the accuracy of that statement–if you think it’s overly dramatic–Ballotpedia has the data to disabuse you.

An uncontested election is one where the number of candidates on the ballot is less than or equal to the number of seats up for election. Candidates running in uncontested elections are virtually guaranteed victory. On average, between 2018 and 2023, 58% of elections covered by Ballotpedia have been uncontested, ranging from a low of 50% in 2021 to a high of 64% in 2020.

Through November 2024, Ballotpedia has covered 76,780 elections in 50 states, the District of Columbia, and five territories. Of that total, 53,428 (70%) were uncontested and 23,352 (30%) were contested.

The current year-to-date rate of 70% uncontested elections is the highest rate Ballotpedia has covered at this point in the year since data collection began in 2018. The second highest rate of uncontested elections was in 2020, at 65%. The lowest rate at this point was 50% in 2021.

When it comes to the type of election being analysed, Ballotpedia finds that 78% of the 2,845 law enforcement elections it covered have been uncontested, making law enforcement contests among the highest uncontested rates. Interestingly, school board races have had the lowest uncontested rate at “only” 49% of the 6,984 covered so far.

On November 5, 2024, Ballotpedia covered 40,646 elections in 50 states, the District of Columbia, and four territories. Of those, 26,218 (64.5%) were uncontested and 14,428 (35.5%) were contested.

Some of the “highlights” (actually, “low lights” would be more accurate) of the report included the following:

Iowa had the highest percentage of uncontested elections, with 1,614 (85%) of the 1,902 elections covered by Ballotpedia uncontested.

Both New Jersey and Puerto Rico had no uncontested elections (0%). In New Jersey, all 17 of the elections covered by Ballotpedia were contested, and all 130 elections covered in Puerto Rico were contested.

Of all the state, district, and territory general election races covered by Ballotpedia on November 5, 2024, Michigan had the highest total number of races at 8,146. Of those, 6,455 (79%) were uncontested.

The most uncontested office type was constable, with 97%, or 39 of the 40 covered races being uncontested elections. Clerk and Treasurer were the second most uncontested office types in Michigan. The combined total number of races for these two offices was 2,688, with 2,522 (93.8%) uncontested.

In Michigan, there were more city council races than any other office type covered, with 1,254 of the 1,732 elections, or 72%, uncontested.

If you think the foregoing data is depressing, the site reports that it underestimates the actual number of uncontested elections.

In some states or for some office types, uncontested elections are canceled, meaning they do not appear on any ballots and are often excluded from other election-related materials including public notices and candidate lists. While Ballotpedia attempts to identify these elections and their winners through direct outreach to election officials, this is not always possible or feasible. The uncontested elections in this analysis are those Ballotpedia was able to identify regardless of whether they were ultimately canceled.

Additionally, this analysis does not include elections where no candidates filed to run.

Permit me to belabor the obvious: elections that offer voters no choice can hardly be considered democratic. The prevalence of gerrymandering–redistricting processes that allow politicians to choose their voters and deny those voters the ability to choose their elected officials–has utterly corrupted American electoral systems. The Supreme Court’s cowardly refusal to rule out the practice has insulated a patently undemocratic process.

In some states, as we’ve seen with reactions to abortion bans, citizens do have recourse to referenda or initiatives–mechanisms that are unwieldy and require massive effort, but at least threaten a check on the most outrageous acts of legislators. Not all states offer those remedies, however–Indiana is one that doesn’t.

So here we are. While Democrats had also engaged in gerrymandering in some states, RedMap’s success allowed the GOP to seize control of the House of Representatives and numerous state offices despite the party’s minority status. The failure of Democrats to contest numerous, presumably “safe” seats reinforced the belief that election results were already “in the bag,” encouraging voters to stay home on election day.

I don’t know what you’d call the system we have had since 2010, but it sure isn’t democracy.

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