Getting Hortatory

My friend and occasional co-author Morton Marcus recently sent me the following:

Hortatory: Definition: giving exhortation or advice; encouraging someone to take a particular course of action
Origin: from the Latin word “hortatorius” meaning “encouraging”
Example: The coach gave a hortatory speech to the team, urging them to give their all in the upcoming game.

Giving exhortation or advice is at the core of what “hortatory” means. It involves motivating or inspiring someone to take action towards a certain goal or objective. This can be done through words of encouragement, counsel or advice. A hortatory speech can be given in different settings, such as in a business meeting, a classroom or a sports team huddle. It is a way to inspire people to aim higher and achieve their desired outcomes. Effective hortatory speeches are often filled with passion, conviction and sincerity, and can be a powerful tool for inspiring others to take positive action.

I’m not sure what this bit of wisdom was intended to convey–whether it was in response to a post, or someone’s comment– but it got me thinking about what I’ve been calling “the resistance.”

A number of people who’ve been advising/considering the options for those of us opposed to the coming full-scale assault on American governance have downplayed the effects of public demonstrations–protests, marches and the like. The central point is that these expressions of anger or disapproval don’t really accomplish anything–that We the People need to apply our energies to more substantive efforts. I don’t disagree with the observation that public dissent by itself is insufficient, but I think it is nevertheless important.

Look at that definition of “hortatory.” 

Widespread expressions of disapproval, whether delivered via letters to elected officials, mass demonstrations, letters to the editor, blog posts, op-eds or other means have important impacts we shouldn’t dismiss: they send a message, and not just to the MAGA folks and Trumpers, many of whom are unaware and dismissive of the extent of public disapproval. Examples of public exhortation help forge community among the people who are participating in other, more scattered acts of resistance. They reassure resistors that they are not alone, that many other people share their belief in American values–especially the rule of law and transparent, competent and ethical governance.

In 2022, the Brookings Institution considered the effects of mass protests. In a study titled “Protest Matters” the focus was on the effects of protests on economic redistribution. Researchers studied whether citizen-led protests were able to nudge governments to increase redistributive efforts of fiscal resources, using evidence from Nigeria. The results were mixed– but overall the results showed that protests did influence fiscal redistribution.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies has also looked into the effects of demonstrations. Among other findings, that study found that such protests have been increasing globally.

Mass protests increased annually by an average of 11.5 percent from 2009 to 2019 across all regions of the world, with the largest concentration of activity in the Middle East and North Africa and the fastest rate of growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

Analysis of the underlying drivers of this growth suggests the trend will continue, meaning the number and intensity of global protests is likely to increase.

Protests have resulted in a broad range of outcomes, ranging from regime change and political accommodation to protracted political violence with many casualties.

The study also identified what it called “catalyzing factors” responsible for the trend: (1) the use of technology by protestors and governments alike, (2) the tension between shifting democratic and authoritarian government types, and (3) the need for improved understanding and responsiveness between governments and their citizens.

Some protests have greater impact than others–it turns out that the “how” of a protest is important. A study, titled “Protests: How Effective Are They?” found that three factors were most significant in predicting the success of such mass efforts: Nonviolent tactics, a favorable sociopolitical context, and a large number of participants. (A “favorable sociopolitical context” includes the existence of pre-existing, favorable public opinion, supportive elites, a favorable media environment– and luck.)

There’s a fairly robust academic literature considering the role of mass protests in promoting change, and while most studies don’t use the term “hortatory,” the hortatory element of successful protests was obvious. Those of us who are determined to resist the corruption, incompetence and sheer anti-Americanism of a Trump administration need to include public protest in our arsenal of weapons.

It’s not enough, but we shouldn’t dismiss it. It will be an important aspect of the resistance.

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Context Matters

How many times have you told someone you would attend gathering A, or accomodate request B, then been unable to follow through? Perhaps it was due to an illness or family emergency or simply because you’d forgotten about a pre-existing obligation. It’s not uncommon–compliance with previous promises is, unfortunately, contingent upon the continued reasonableness/ability to perform.

When the news broke about President Biden’s pardon of his son, despite earlier statements that no such pardon would be forthcoming, I didn’t realize that the context had changed–dramatically. And even then, to be honest, it didn’t bother me; anyone familiar with the laws governing Hunter Biden’s prosecution can attest to the fact that he faced penalties far more severe than those sought against others in the same circumstances– only because his name was Biden. (As former U.S. Attorney Joyce White Vance made clear in her Civil Discourse, Hunter Biden wouldn’t even have been criminally charged if he had been anyone other than the president’s son). The relentless effort to use him politically to hurt his father was obvious and unfair. So–while a pardon did violate the President’s prior promise not to issue one– I really thought it was appropriate.

And that was before I realized how dramatically the context had changed. As Heather Cox Richardson has explained, 

The pardon’s sweeping scope offers an explanation for why Biden issued it after saying he would not.

Ron Filipkowski of MeidasTouch notes that Biden’s pardon came after Trump’s announcement that he wants to place conspiracy theorist Kash Patel at the head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Filipkowski studies right-wing media and points out that Patel’s many appearances there suggest he is obsessed with Hunter Biden, especially the story of his laptop, which Patel insists shows that Hunter and Joe Biden engaged in crimes with Ukraine and China.

House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-KY) spent two years investigating these allegations and turned up nothing—although Republican representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia used the opportunity to display pictures of Hunter Biden naked on national media—yet Patel insists that the Department of Justice should focus on Hunter Biden as soon as a Trump loyalist is back in charge.

Notably, Trump’s people, including former lawyer Rudy Giuliani and his ally Lev Parnas, spent more than a year trying to promote false testimony against Hunter Biden by their Ukrainian allies. Earlier this year, in the documentary From Russia with Lev, produced by Rachel Maddow, Parnas publicly apologized to Hunter Biden for his role in the scheme.

The victory of Donald Trump and his subsequent unqualified and inappropriate choices for important government positions raised the very real prospect that the FBI and Justice Department might literally fabricate evidence, or collaborate with a foreign government to ‘find’ evidence of a ‘crime,’ with zero accountability–that going forward, those agencies would be used as political weapons rather than legitimate law enforcement mechanisms, and would focus on Hunter Biden, among others.

Richardson pointed out that most media outlets had failed to tell the full story–to provide the context within which a prior promise could not–should not–be kept. Several pundits have asserted that Biden has given Trump license to pardon anyone he wants, evidently forgetting that in his first term, “Trump pardoned his daughter Ivanka’s father-in-law, Charles Kushner, who pleaded guilty to federal charges of tax evasion, campaign finance offenses, and witness tampering and whom Trump has now tapped to become the U.S. ambassador to France.”

Trump also pardoned for various crimes men who were associated with the ties between the 2016 Trump campaign and the Russian operatives working to elect Trump. Those included his former national security advisor Michael Flynn, former campaign manager Paul Manafort, and former allies Roger Stone and Steve Bannon. Those pardons, which suggested Trump was rewarding henchmen, received a fraction of the attention lavished on Biden’s pardon of his son.

In today’s news coverage, the exercise of the presidential pardon—which traditionally gets very little attention—has entirely outweighed the dangerous nominations of an incoming president, which will have profound influence on the American people. This imbalance reflects a longstanding and classic power dynamic in which Republicans set the terms of public debate, excusing their own objectionable behavior while constantly attacking Democrats in a fiery display that attracts media attention but distorts reality.

As Richardson notes, this lack of balance and context do not bode well for journalism during the upcoming administration. The likelihood is that the media will continue to leave the public badly informed–or completely uninformed– about matters that are important for truly understanding modern politics.

Matters like context.

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What If We Had Mandatory Voting?

A couple of days ago, a commenter suggested that a shift to mandatory voting might help reinvigorate American democracy.

I once thought the only countries requiring citizens to cast ballots were the ones running phony elections, the countries where autocrats could claim an overwhelming mandate after marching people to the polls, but a few years ago, during a cruise of Croatia, I met a retired professor of public administration from Australia, who disabused me of that belief.

It turns out that countries like Australia, Belgium and Brazil all require citizens to cast ballots. In such countries, including Australia, modest fines for non-voting are typically assessed. In Belgium, non-voters may be fined and they may also face disenfranchisement for repeatedly abstaining. In Brazil: voting is also compulsory, but the rule makes several accommodations for illiterate citizens, the elderly, and those living abroad.

Mandatory voting rules require citizens of voting age to register and participate in elections. Penalties for noncompliance range from small fees to restrictions on public services. (In some countries, like Brazil, proof of compliance is needed for public employment or for obtaining a passport.)

In most systems, the rules contain exemptions for valid reasons for not voting– illness, travel, or  even religious objections may exempt individuals from penalties. And use of mail-in or other absentee ballots are considered to be in compliance. The mandate is not onerous.

Even people who want to show affirmative disdain for all of the candidates can comply with the law by submitting a blank or spoiled ballot–signifying their vote for “none of the above.”

There’s a fairly substantial body of academic literature analyzing the effects of mandatory voting.

Unsurprisingly, turnout increases dramatically (duh!), but research has also suggested other salutary outcomes. Researchers have found  that compulsory voting reduces “socioeconomic biases” in voter turnout. (In countries without required voting, the majority of people who fail to vote are typically poorer.) Vote totals in mandatory systems thus reflect the sentiments of a broader cross-section of the society. As a result, some studies have suggested that governments in countries with mandatory voting are more likely to adopt policies that benefit broader segments of society.

Critics of mandatory voting argue that forcing uninterested or uninformed individuals to vote dilutes the quality of electoral decisions. A 2009 study titled Full Participation: A Comparative Study of Compulsory Voting, for example, highlighted these concerns about uninformed voting. (On the other hand, those of us who live in the U.S. can attest to the fact that making voting mandatory could hardly turn out a higher percentage of uninformed voters that those who routinely go to the polls here. Data shows that Donald Trump’s margin of victory was greatest among those who consume little or no news.”)

When I was doing some superficial research for this post, I also found pundits who argue that making voting mandatory infringes on individual freedom. (Civil libertarian that I am, that was actually my initial reaction during discussion with my fellow passenger.) On reflection, however, I have changed my mind–for a couple of reasons.

I have often said that taxes are the dues we pay for a functioning society, but taxes represent only one part of those “dues.” Other obligations of citizenship include obeying laws and responding to summonses for jury duty. Surely casting a ballot can be considered another such obligation.

Over and above the inclusion of voting as a duty of citizenship, however, is the likely effect of such a mandate on policy.

Poll after poll shows large majorities of citizens supporting or opposing particular policies –preferences that are routinely ignored by America’s lawmakers. Most lawmakers who feel safe ignoring public opinion are the Representatives elected to the House who have been gerrymandered into “safe” districts. As I have often noted, however, gerrymandering is a voter suppression tactic. In a large number of those districts, universal turnout would make purportedly “safe” districts far more competitive–and would send a signal to incumbents that they might actually need to listen to their constituents.

When it comes to the election contests that aren’t subject to gerrymandering–Governors, Senators, President–universal turnout could not possibly give us worse results than those of the 2024 elections.

Will the United States ever impose mandatory voting? Doubtful, in a country where millions of people resist the most modest measures to protect the health and well-being of their neighbors.

But it’s certainly worth putting on our wish list….

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Rokita Again…

Among the worst results of the recent election was the local–and sadly predictable–victory of Indiana’s statewide Republican ticket. Mike Braun can be expected to obediently follow the Trumpist/MAGA line. Micah Beckwith and Jim Banks are self-proclaimed Christian Nationalist and an embarrassment to the state (and, actually, to intelligent humans pretty much everywhere.) But Todd Rokita may actually be the worst choice Hoosiers made, if only because he was running for re-election after a term in which he displayed what he is for all to see–an unethical publicity hound consistently pandering to the very worst of the MAGA base.

And he is at it again–(mis)using the resources of his office to pursue ideological, rather than legal, ends. This time, it’s an effort to intimidate Indiana organizations that serve immigrant populations.

One of those organizations is Su Casa, a nonprofit organization that was issued a civil investigative demand by the office of the Indiana Attorney General. The purported reason was an inquiry into human trafficking. Su Casa–along with many other entities in Indiana that serve immigrant communities– are being “questioned” by the AG’s office, probing how they serve migrant communities.

Su Casa was founded in 1999 as a response to the increase of Latin American immigrants arriving in Columbus, Indiana.  The majority of them had limited English proficiency, and Su Casa provided assistance and removed barriers to essential services in that community. It’s mission is to “increase self-sufficiency, health, economic independence, education, and ensure Latino families feel safe and belong here.” Its website says “Su Casa believes that all residents should have equitable access to the tools and support needed to be successful regardless of socio-economic or immigration status, gender identity, sexual orientation, race, or beliefs.”

MAGA cultists like Rokita consider such beliefs unacceptably “woke.”

When I did some research, I discovered that the Attorney General has initiated investigations into several organizations– including nonprofits, government agencies, and businesses– that work to facilitate what the cult deplores as an  “influx of migrants into Indiana communities.” These investigations purport to be about labor trafficking and “the strain on local resources due to increased migrant populations.”

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The Know-Nothing Administration

Data tells us that education levels predict the major divisions among American voters. Educational differences are also playing out in Washington, as Trump assembles a know-nothing cabinet composed of cranks, toadies, various conspiracy theorists and general ignoramuses.

Primary among those ignoramuses is Elon Musk. Musk’s reputation as a “genius” rests almost entirely on Americans’ quixotic tendency to ascribe intelligence to the accumulation of wealth. Musk inherited a fortune, purchased rather than invented the Tesla, and pretty much tanked Twitter. We taxpayers provide much of his income through lucrative contracts with the federal government.

I may be underwhelmed by Musk’s purported brilliance (actually, he isn’t stupid, he’s ignorant, and that’s different) but–like Trump–he himself is anything but modest. He’s proclaimed an intent to use his promised new (illegitimate) “department” to produce savings and government “efficiency.”

Musk and fellow billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy have promised to cut two trillion dollars out of the federal budget–a promise that displays incredible ignorance of what is in that budget, what is and isn’t discretionary, and what would be required to reduce it.

Vox recently explained that, even if Musk and Ramaswamy took an axe to the relatively small portion of the budget that is discretionary, that would save “only” $1.1 trillion. But those cuts would be incredibly painful–and would never make it through Congress:

Let’s suppose that Musk and Ramaswamy decide to really go for it. They’re going to cut non-defense discretionary spending in half, maybe by shutting down all scientific and health research and K–12 school aid. They’re slashing Medicare and Medicaid by a quarter, and they’re eliminating food stamps, ACA credits, and unemployment insurance entirely.

These, to be clear, are all cuts that would require congressional approval and that Musk, Ramaswamy, and Trump could not achieve through executive action alone. Furthermore, they’re cuts that seem politically impossible to push through. For the sake of argument, let’s suppose this is the package.

Doing the math, even this unbelievably ambitious package would amount to a little over $1.1 trillion annually. It’s barely halfway to Musk’s stated goal.

Robert Hubbell, among others, has noted that it isn’t mathematically possible (not to mention politically feasible) to achieve $2 trillion in cuts. A one trillion dollar cut would require “massive cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, and subsidies for the Affordable Health Care premiums.” The majority of people hurt by those cuts would be the MAGA folks in Trump’s base, and they’d take effect right before the midterms.

What about Musk’s proposal to save money by firing thousands of federal workers? Again, he displays his ignorance. The federal workforce has remained essentially flat for decades; increases in the number of government workers have occured at the state and local level.

As Hubbell writes, 

The US economy is the largest in the world—by a large margin. Although Musk and Ramaswamy may not like it, the size of the US economy is due in part to the federal government, which creates stable marketplaces and economic conditions for growth.

If you demolish the federal regulatory framework by firing millions of federal employees, we devolve into a kleptocracy—like Russia, which has an economy smaller than that of Brazil. Indeed, Russia’s current GDP is smaller than that of the US before WWII. See World Bank Ranking of GDP 2023….

The myth that the US has a bloated federal bureaucracy is demonstrably false when compared to other developed economies. If Musk and Ramaswamy recommend cutting the US federal workforce by a million jobs, we will have a federal regulatory environment on the same scale as Haiti and El Salvador. That state of affairs might benefit robber barons and tech bros, but it won’t help working-class Americans.

Here’s the takeaway: We will hear an incredible amount of insufferable mansplaining and chest-thumping from Musk and Ramaswamy. But they will soon face the reality that government spending helps the American people (which is the point of having a government) and creates the conditions for a prosperous economy.

Musk and his ilk are just prominent examples of the uninformed population that thinks running a government is no different than running a business. As I explained yesterday, that belief rests on a profound misconception of what government is, and what it is for.

It isn’t just Musk and Ramaswamy. Trump’s entire cabinet is a collection of dunces and conspiracy theorists–from Soviet apologist Tulsi Gabbard to RFK, Jr. and his brain worm. His pick for Treasury Secretary is evidently pro-tariff, but as the New York Times has noted, will have a very uphill battle selling tariffs to a business community that actually understands how they work.

Some of these Trump-world clowns probably believe the earth is flat…..

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